Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- No significant concerns for the Midwest's maturing crops or harvest efforts, improving conditions for the Delta, rain for the Northern Plains, and some rain for Kansas, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

FAVORABLE MIDWEST CONDITIONS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for the Midwest to have mostly favorable conditions for filling, maturing and the early harvest of corn and soybeans. There is no damaging cold weather indicated during the next 10 days.

TROPICAL UPDATE

As of early this morning, the center of Hurricane Jose, with 75-mile-per-hour winds, was located 445 miles east-northeast of the southeast Bahamas. Jose is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 kilometers/h). A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected later today. The system is expected to turn northward tomorrow or Saturday and then north-northeast during Sunday and Monday. This track is about midway between Bermuda and the North Carolina coastline.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST U.S.

The Southeast looks to see only a few light showers with locally heavier amounts during the next seven days, along with warmer weather. This should allow crops hit by rain and wind associated with Hurricane Irma to improve with time.

IRMA'S IMPACT ON FLORIDA AG

Hurricane Irma generated strong wind gusts as well as very heavy to torrential rains this past weekend. This is likely to cause significant losses to unharvested citrus fruit, as well as sugarcane and vegetables. It may also mean damage to citrus trees in some locations. This was a Category 4 hurricane when it made landfall in southwest Florida Saturday.

WARM AND DRY IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, there are mostly favorable warm and dry conditions for fieldwork and planting of hard red winter wheat at this time. Soil moisture continues to diminish under this fair weather pattern, especially with well-above-normal temperatures. Rainfall will be needed to ensure favorable pre-winter development of wheat once it has been planted. There is some chance for needed rain to occur late in the period, but this is uncertain.

POSSIBLE RAIN FOR WEST TEXAS

West Texas will see mostly favorable conditions for developing and maturing cotton for at least today through Monday. The U.S. weather outlook model continues to feature more rain for the region Tuesday than does the European model, but this is considered highly uncertain.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR DELTA

Drier, warmer weather lasting at least the next seven days in the Delta region will help improve the condition of mature crops and improve conditions for the harvest.

NORTHERN PLAINS RAIN

In the Northern Plains, conditions are generally favorable for filling and maturing corn and soybeans at this time. Rain and thunderstorms, along with lower temperatures, during the next few days will be unfavorable for maturing crops and will likely delay the harvest. However, this does help restore soil moisture and reduce the wildfire danger.

MORE FAVORABLE CHINA PATTERN

Northern China will have mostly favorable conditions for late-filling corn and soybean at this time, although some areas could probably still use more rain.

INDIA RAINS

The forecast for India suggests an increase in showers and thunderstorms during the next three to five days over the southern portion of the north India region and the northern portion of the south India area. This area includes key cotton and soybean crops of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The rainfall may also move into key sugarcane areas of southern Maharashtra as well.

AUSTRALIA DRYNESS

In Australia, dryness is of much concern for wheat grown in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. Wheat in reproductive growth stages is likely being hurt at this time. Rain is needed to stabilize crop prospects for the area. There is no significant rainfall in sight for the driest areas of east-central Australia. This is currently affecting wheat, but may also affect sorghum and cotton if the pattern continues.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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