DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level charts feature a weak upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Alaska, a trough over southwest and central Canada, a second trough east of Hudson Bay. In the US we see weak troughs in the northwest and over central California and weak to moderate trough over the Ohio river valley. Strong subtropical ridge centers are located in northwest Mexico and the southern Rockies and over the Bahamas.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in only fair agreement again today. I am using a little more of today's European model. The mean trough position during this period will be mainly between the west coast and the northwest plains. The upper level ridge will be in the south and east plains and Midwest regions early in the period but should shift eastward over the eastern Midwest and then into the northeast U.S. later in the period. The European model shows what is likely hurricane Jose tracking from just off the middle Atlantic coast to just east of New England during Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. The hurricane and its upper level trough is the reason for the slow down of the progression of features further to the west during the early part of the outlook period. Eventually the trough exits the region which should allow the western trough and central ridge to come eastward, although still relatively slowly. This pattern should feature much cooler weather west of the Rockies during this period, associated with the upper level trough.

Some of this cooler weather may reach to the northern plains and the Canadian Prairies, especially later in the period. The contrast between the cool west and very warm east pattern should also lead to some potential stormy weather for portions of the northern plains and Canadian Prairies during the outlook period. Some of this activity might also slide south into the central plains wheat belt and east into the western Midwest corn and soybean areas late in the outlook period. The eastern Midwest, the Delta and probably the southeast as well remain drier and somewhat warmer during the period. Today's US model, should it verify instead, shows the hurricane further east when it moves northward east of the U.S. and also a little faster. This allows the ridge to advance to the east sooner than it does on the European model.

This in turn allows the western trough to come east faster as well, especially over the northern Rockies, the northern plains and the Canadian Prairies. This trough is also deeper than on the euro which means colder and stormier weather for these locations. The U.S. model also continues to pick up on a tropical system in the Pacific and tracks it northeast through Baja, the west Texas region and the central plains and western Midwest. This is ahead of the mean western trough and would mean heavier rains for these locations...if it were to verify.

By Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...110 AT NEEDLES CA AND OCOTILLO WELLS CA LOW WED...29 AT BODIE STATE PARK CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...EVANSVILLE IN 0.50 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in only fair agreement again today. I am using a little more of today's European model.

The mean trough position during this period will be mainly between the west coast and the northwest plains. The upper level ridge will be in the south and east plains and Midwest regions early in the period but should shift eastward over the eastern Midwest and then into the northeast US later in the period.

The European model shows what is likely hurricane Jose tracking from just off the middle Atlantic coast to just east of New England during Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. The hurricane and its upper level trough is the reason for the slow down of the progression of features further to the west during the early part of the outlook period. Eventually the trough exits the region which should allow the western trough and central ridge to come eastward, although still relatively slowly. This pattern should feature much cooler weather west of the Rockies during this period, associated with the upper level trough.

Some of this cooler weather may reach to the northern plains and the Canadian Prairies, especially later in the period. The contrast between the cool west and very warm east pattern should also lead to some potential stormy weather for portions of the northern plains and Canadian Prairies during the outlook period. Some of this activity might also slide south into the central plains wheat belt and east into the western Midwest corn and soybean areas late in the outlook period. The eastern Midwest, the Delta and probably the southeast as well remain drier and somewhat warmer during the period.

Today's US model, should it verify instead, shows the hurricane further east when it moves northward east of the US and also a little faster. This allows the ridge to advance to the east sooner than it does on the European model.

This in turn allows the western trough to come east faster as well, especially over the northern Rockies, the northern plains and the Canadian Prairies. This trough is also deeper than on the euro which means colder and stormier weather for these locations. The US model also continues to pick up on a tropical system in the Pacific and tracks it northeast through Baja, the west Texas region and the central plains and western Midwest. This is ahead of the mean western trough and would mean heavier rains for these locations...if it were to verify.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose, with 75 mph winds, was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 66.5 West or about 445 miles east-northeast of the southeast Bahamas. Jose is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected later today. The system is expected turn northward tomorrow or Saturday and then north-northeast during Sunday and Monday. This track is about midway between Bermuda and the North Carolina coastline.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Mostly favorable conditions for filling, maturing and the early harvest of corn and soybeans. There is no damaging cold weather indicated during the next 10 days.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT, LIVESTOCK): Mostly favorable conditions for fieldwork and planting at this time. Soil moisture continues to diminish under this fair weather pattern, especially with well above normal temperatures.

Rainfall will be needed to ensure favorable pre winter development of wheat once it has been planted. There is some chance for needed shower activity to occur late in the period but this is uncertain.

DELTA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Drier, warmer weather lasting at least the next 7 days will help improve the condition of mature crops and improve conditions for the harvest.

SOUTHEAST US (COTTON,PEANUTS): The region looks to see only a few light showers with locally heavier during the next 7 days, along with warming temperatures.

This should allow crops hit by rain and wind associated with Irma to improve with time.

FLORIDA (CITRUS/SUGARCANE/VEGETABLES): Hurricane Irma generated strong wind gusts as well as very heavy to torrential rains this past weekend. This is likely to cause significant losses to unharvested citrus fruit as well as sugarcane and vegetable. It may also mean damage to citrus trees in some locations. This was a category 4 hurricane when it made landfall in southwest Florida Saturday.

CUBA (SUGARCANE): Hurricane Irma dropped south before turning north towards Florida. This brought heavy to torrential rains and powerful winds to Cuba.

This likely means severe flooding and extreme wind damage, impacting unharvested sugarcane.

MEXICO (COFFEE,CITRUS,SUGARCANE): Hurricane Katia moved inland over Veracruz, Mexico about as expected early in the weekend period. This area of Mexico produces coffee, citrus and sugarcane. These crops would be at risk of serious damage due to high winds and severe flooding and mudslides. Transport would also be impacted.

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEANS): Generally favorable conditions for filling and maturing corn and soybeans at this time. Rain and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures during the next few days will be unfavorable for maturing crops and will likely delay the harvest.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Mostly favorable conditions for developing and maturing cotton for at least today through Monday. The US model continues to feature more rain for the region Tuesday than does the European model but this is considered highly uncertain.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Mostly favorable conditions for late filling corn and soybean at this time, although some could probably still use more rain.

INDIAN MONSOON: The forecast suggests an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity during the next 3-5 days over the southern portion of the north India region and the northern portion of the south India area. This area includes key cotton and soybean crops of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The rainfall may also move into key sugarcane areas of southern Maharashtra as well.

AUSTRALIA: Dryness is of much concern for wheat grown in northern NSW and southern Queensland. Wheat in reproductive growth stages is likely being hurt at this time. Rain is needed to stabilize crop prospects for the area. There is no significant rainfall in sight for the driest areas of east-central Australia. This is currently impacting wheat but may also impact sorghum and cotton if the pattern continues.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry, although isolated very light showers were reported.

Temperatures averaged well above normal yesterday.

East: Light to moderate showers southeast to east-central areas during the past 24 hours. Very light showers central and east Illinois and much of Indiana.

Temperatures averaged near to above normal north and west, below normal southeast areas.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier favoring northwest areas Friday. Scattered light showers with locally heavier Saturday. Temperatures average well above normal today and Friday, near to above normal northwest areas and above normal otherwise Saturday.

Mostly dry during Sunday. Showers or light rain through eastern and southern areas Monday. Chance for showers favoring east and south areas Tuesday.

Temperatures average near to below normal Sunday and Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry today through Saturday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above to well above normal tomorrow and Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only a few isolated light showers Sunday. Scattered light showers favoring western areas Monday. Mainly dry or with only a few light showers Tuesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal during this period. Rainfall should average near to above normal northwest, near to below normal south and east.

Central/Southern Plains (Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Isolated light to locally moderate showers were reported in northwest and northeast areas during the past 24 hours. Most of the region continued dry yesterday. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only isolated light showers favoring northern areas today and Friday. A few light showers with locally moderate showers may occur Saturday favoring central and northeast areas. Temperatures average above to well above normal today and Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

A few light to locally moderate showers may occur Sunday through early Monday, favoring central and east Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Drier later Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday and Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal early in the period, near to above normal late in the period. Rainfall should average near normal through western and northern areas, below normal through southeast locations.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Dry or with only a few light showers yesterday. Overnight a few areas of showers and light rain developed. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal, except it was somewhat cooler through northern Montana.

Forecast: Moderate to heavy rain or showers and thunderstorms today or during Friday from south and east Montana through North Dakota, northwest South Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Lingering light precipitation favoring central and east areas during Saturday. Temperatures average below normal through west and central areas and near normal east today, below normal tomorrow and Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring western areas Monday. Scattered to widely scattered light showers with locally heavier Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal Sunday and Monday, somewhat warmer Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal early in this period, below normal again later. Precipitation should average near to above normal.

By Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(SK)

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