DTN Closing Livestock Comments

Nearby Lean Hog Futures Clobbered Hard

John Harrington
By  John Harrington , DTN Livestock Analyst
(DTN file photo)


The cash cattle trade remained at a standstill Tuesday with neither bids nor asking prices well defined. The national hog base is $1.11 lower ($52.00-$56.50, weighted average $55.88). Corn futures sagged 5-6 cents, pressured higher than expected yield and production estimates released by the World Board earlier in the day. The Dow and Nasdaq closed at record highs, up 61 points and 22 points respectively.


Live contracts settled mostly 35 to 132 lower, checked by long liquidation and the discount status of recent feedlot business. Spot October close right in the middle of the lateral trading range in place since early August. While the bottom formations looks increasingly promising, the trade remains stuck far below important levels of technical resistance. Beef cut-outs: mixed, up $.48 (select, $190.86) to off $.77 (choice, $190.79) with light to moderate demand and heavy offerings (98 loads of choice cuts, 22 loads of select cuts, 27 loads of trimmings, 17 loads of ground beef).


Steady. Preliminary bids should start to surface at midweek. Both sides will no doubt be watching the board as well as internet auction results. Yet significant trade volume will likely be postponed until Thursday or Friday.


Feeder issues closed moderately lower with prices off 5 to 52 lower for the most part. Contracts fared better than their live counterparts, probably thanks in part to the break in the corn market. CME cash feeder index: 09/11: 149.01, up .77.


Lean hog contracts settled 40 to 212 points lower with nearby issues catching most of the bearish heat. Spot October gapped lower on the opening and closed at a new multi-month low. December closed at $57.65, its lowest level since late August and below its 8-day moving average low. Given the way the late year board is struggling, some believe it will be necessary for December to test its late summer low of $55.77. Pork cut-out: NA. CME cash lean index for 09/08: 67.91, off 1.03 (DTN Projected lean index for 09/11: 67.37, off .54).


$1-$2 lower. The cash market should be stuck in the same bearish groove at midweek. Look for opening packer bids to be another $1-$2 lower.

John A. Harrington can be reached at john.harrington@dtn.com


John Harrington