DTN Early Word Grains
The Gang's All Here
December corn was 1 cent higher, November soybeans were 2 cents higher, and December Chicago (SRW) wheat was 1 cent higher.
CME Globex Recap:Grain and oilseed markets were higher across the board early Friday, due in part to the continued fall of the U.S. dollar. The greenback lost ground to other currencies, leading to another solid sell-off by the U.S. dollar index. Gold remains strong, posting a double-digit rally overnight before pulling back slightly. DJIA futures were lower, as global equity markets brace for what is expected to be another tense weekend of hurricanes and hydrogen bomb testing.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 22.86 points (0.1%) lower at 21,784.78, the NASDAQ Composite gained 4.55 points to 6,397.87, and the S&P 500 dipped 0.44 to 2,465.10 Thursday. DJIA futures were 64 points lower early Friday morning. Asian markets closed mostly lower with Japan's Nikkei down 121.70 points (0.6%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng rallied 145.55 points (0.5%), and China's Shanghai Composite down 0.25. European markets were trading mostly lower with London's FTSE 100 down 17.44 points (0.2%), Germany's DAX off 0.13 point, and France's CAC 40 losing 11.06 points (0.2%). The euro rallied 0.0008 to 1.1925 while the U.S. dollar index lost another 0.39 to 91.15, putting it at its lowest level since January 2015. December 30-year T-Bonds were 19/32 higher at 157'31 while December gold gained $8.70 to $1,359.00. Crude oil was $0.15 lower at $48.94 while Brent crude added $0.33 to $54.82. China's Dalian soybean futures were higher and Malaysian palm oil futures were lower overnight.
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| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | December corn remains in a short-term uptrend, and could soon break out of its consolidation pattern. | 1) | Technically December corn continues to consolidate within its minor (short-term) uptrend, holding just below initial resistance at $3.61 1/2. |
| 2) | November soybeans continue to show a solid uptrend on its weekly chart. | 2) | The short-term trend of November soybeans is nearing a downturn. |
| 3) | Wheat is expected to see renewed buying interest from the weaker U.S. dollar index. | 3) | The long-term commercial outlook for winter wheat remains extremely bearish. |
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MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN Technically December corn continues to consolidate within its minor (short-term) uptrend, holding just below initial resistance at $3.61 1/2. Overnight trade volume (futures only) was light at 6,700 contracts, with Dec corn needing a catalyst to move into the next phase of its uptrend. This could come in the form of USDA's September Crop Production reports next Tuesday, given the market trended down following the release of the government's previous set of numbers. Fundamentally there is little change in the market, with everyone waiting on 2017 harvest to begin in earnest.
Delivery of 67 contracts was reported against the September issue, putting the total at 2,877 contracts.
SOYBEANS The soybean market was posting small gains early Friday morning, supported in part by the weaker U.S. dollar. But unlike December corn, the consolidation below technical resistance in November soybean could be hinting at a bearish turn in the minor (short-term) trend. With the contract stuck in the target area between $9.69 and $9.84, and indicators showing Nov beans to be short-term overbought, next week's USDA Crop Production report could trigger a round of selling. Fundamentally there is little change in the market, with everyone waiting for harvest to begin and the September 29 Quarterly Stocks report to show what beginning stocks for the 2017-2018 marketing year actually are. Delivery of 29 contracts was reported against the September issue, putting the total at 249 contracts.
WHEAT Winter wheat contracts were showing small gains early Friday morning, supported by the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar index. It will be interesting to watch if commercial buying makes a reappearance Friday, meaning the carry in futures spreads weakens heading into the weekend. For now the modest overnight rally looks to be nothing more than a reaction to Thursday's sharp sell-off. Delivery of 100 contracts was reported against the September Chicago issue, putting its total at 261 contracts. There were no new deliveries reported against the September Kansas City issue, leaving its total at 1,108 contracts.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.10 | -$0.05 | -$0.45 | Dec | $0.006 |
| Soybeans: | $9.04 | -$0.03 | -$0.64 | Nov | -$0.003 |
| SRW Wheat: | $3.92 | -$0.09 | -$0.45 | Dec | $0.000 |
| HRW Wheat: | $3.58 | -$0.07 | -$0.84 | Dec | $0.004 |
| HRS Wheat: | $5.98 | $0.05 | -$0.52 | Dec | -$0.002 |
Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com
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