Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Frost-free conditions for the Midwest in the extended outlook, and concern about Hurricane Irma's impact, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

MIDWEST STAYS DRY AND COOL

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for mostly favorable conditions for filling, maturing and the early harvest of corn and soybeans. There is no damaging cold weather indicated during the next 10 days.

POTENTIAL HURRICANE IRMA DAMAGE

Category 5 Hurricane Irma's center by early this morning, with 185-mile-per-hour winds, was located near 35 miles east-southeast of St. Martin in the northeast Caribbean Sea. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 kilometers/hour), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands this morning, move near or over portions of the northern Virgin Islands later today, and pass near or just north of Puerto Rico this afternoon or tonight. Irma remains an extreme risk to lives and property through the northern Caribbean islands, the Bahamas and the Florida during the next three to five days. Eventually this may also extend to Georgia and the Carolinas, but this could change. The forecast track seems to be going away from a Gulf of Mexico impact but this, too, is somewhat uncertain.

HURRICANE IRMA'S IMPACT ON FLORIDA

Irma is an extreme risk to Florida at this time. The track could still change, but as of this hour the risk is for torrential rains leading to extreme flooding and high winds leading to severe damage to crops (including citrus, sugarcane and vegetables) in south and central Florida. The timeframe is this weekend. The bias at this time appears to be for a greater impact in south and east Florida, due to wind and extreme rains, but this could change.

HURRICANE IRMA'S IMPACT ON SOUTHEAST US.

The early call puts the heaviest rain due to the future track of Hurricane Irma in east Georgia and the Carolina's early next week, affecting cotton and peanuts. However, this track is highly uncertain this far into the future. This could shift east or west.

TROPICAL STORM KATIA

Early this morning the center of Tropical Storm Katia, with 40-mph winds, was located 105 miles east of Tampico, Mexico in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Katia is moving toward the east-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and the system should gradually turn southeastward during the next 24 hours and continue moving in this general direction through Thursday. A turn toward the southwest is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Katia is expected to remain offshore of Mexico through Friday morning. This system may bring heavy rains to key coffee areas of east-central Mexico at the end of this week.

DRIER FOR DELTA

Drier weather is expected during the next five to seven days for the Delta. This should help crops recover from prior rains associated with first the wet late-summer period and then Tropical Depression Harvey. Although current thinking continues to keep Irma's rain east of the area it will still bear watching.

FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS

Mostly adequate soil moisture for the upcoming winter wheat planting season in the Central and Southern Plains. There should be favorable weather for early fieldwork.

GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Generally favorable conditions are in place for filling and maturing corn and soybeans are in effect over the Northern Plains. There is no damaging cold weather expected during the next 10 days.

MIXED PRAIRIES TEMPERATURES

The Canadian Prairies have mostly favorable conditions for wheat and canola harvest. Late-filling canola will benefit from continued warm weather through the weekend. Somewhat cooler weather early this week is not expected to end the growing season for many areas.

WEEKEND CHINA SHOWERS

Crop areas of northeastern China picked up some needed rains during the weekend while the balance of the region was drier. Warm weather and this added rainfall will favor filling crops. Periodic showers and no significant cold weather will favor filling crops this week.

LATE INDIA MONSOON RAIN

In South Asia, a late-season to the India monsoon has brought significant rains to key growing areas of Pakistan and northwest India during the past week. Heavy rains hit Sind province in southeast Pakistan. Moderate to heavy rains have also hit Punjab Pakistan and northwest growing areas of India. Rain in these areas will help improve irrigation and soil moisture for summer crops and irrigation for winter crops. This is highly favorable except in areas of local flooding. Rains also returned to southernmost crop areas of India during the weekend.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA DRYNESS

Dryness is of increasing concern for wheat grown in eastern Australia, notably northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. Wheat in reproductive growth stages is likely being hurt at this time. Rain is needed to stabilize crop prospects for the area. However, the forecast brings continued dry conditions this week.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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