DTN Early Word Grains

Whole Lotta Nothin' Goin' On

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

December corn was fractionally lower, November soybeans were unchanged, and December Chicago (SRW) wheat was 1 cent higher.

CME Globex Recap:

One knows it was a quiet overnight session when early morning finds a 1-cent rally in Chicago wheat the highlight of the grain and oilseed complex. Corn and soybeans were both unchanged to fractionally lower. Outside markets were more active with another strong rally seen in RBOB gasoline. The U.S. dollar index was higher, as were DJIA futures. Gold was posting a small loss but holding above $1,300.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 27.06 points (0.1%) higher at 21,892.43, the NASDAQ Composite gained 66.42 points (1.0%) to 6,368.31, and the S&P 500 added 11.29 points to 2,457.59 Wednesday. DJIA futures were 64 points higher early Thursday morning. Asian markets closed mixed with Japan's Nikkei up 139.79 points (0.7%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng losing 124.31 points (0.4%), and China's Shanghai Composite off 2.82 points. European markets were trading higher with London's FTSE 100 up 44.86 points (0.6%), Germany's DAX gaining 69.63 points (0.5%), and France's CAC 40 adding 29.64 points (0.6%). The euro gained 0.0006 to 1.1889 while the U.S. dollar index rallied 0.21 to 93.06. December 30-year T-Bonds were 2/32 lower at 155'19 while December gold lost $3.50 to $1,310.60. Crude oil was $0.12 higher at $46.08 while Brent crude gained $0.12 to $50.98. RBOB gasoline rallied another 9.5 cents to $1.98. China's Dalian soybean and Malaysian palm oil futures were lower overnight.

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BULL BEAR
1)

December corn remains sharply oversold from a technical point of view.

1) The carry in the December-to-March corn spread continues to cover a bearish level of calculated full commercial carry.
2) November soybeans continue to show a short-term uptrend on its daily chart. 2) If November soybeans break support at $9.35 3/4, the next target could be its contract low of $9.07.
3) December Chicago wheat continues to consolidate above its recent low. 3) The long-term commercial outlook for winter wheat remains extremely bearish.

The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN Thursday morning finds corn much like the last number of mornings has, the December contract sitting comfortable near a new low established either overnight or during the previous day's session. In this case that new low is $3.45, posted both Wednesday and again overnight. Yes, the contract is sharply oversold on both its daily and weekly charts. No, that has generated little buying enthusiasm since the last round of USDA keno mid-month. And while this is the last day of the 2016-2017 marketing year, Thursday's weekly export sales and shipment numbers are for the week ending Thursday, August 24. It's likely that including those numbers corn export demand will still be on pace to hit between 2.225 bb and 2.230 bb. Initial delivery of 844 contracts was reported against the September issue.

SOYBEANS Despite posting a fourth consecutive lower close, November soybeans continue to stubbornly show a minor (short-term) uptrend on its daily chart. Still, the contract is walking a dangerous path along a steep cliff as it consolidates near support at $9.35 3/4. A slip to the downside could send it reeling back toward its contract low of $9.07. It's unlikely that Thursday's weekly export sales and shipment numbers, for the week ending Thursday, August 24, will create much of a stir in the market. With one reporting week left, following this report, soybeans could still be on pace for total export demand of 2.130 bb. Keep an eye on unshipped 2016-2017 sales as well as these are vulnerable to be canceled, or worse, rolled into the new-crop 2017-2018 marketing possibly displacing later sales. As of the previous week's report unshipped sales totaled 147 mb, on pace with the previous marketing year. Initial delivery of 1 contract was reported against the September issue.

WHEAT Winter wheat markets were posting small gains early Thursday morning. Fundamentally there is nothing new to say about winter wheat, with the forward curve in both Chicago and Kansas City showing extremely strong carries. Technically both markets are sharply oversold, but that has generated only scattered buying interest approaching the end of the month. Given that it's still relatively early in the 2017-2018 marketing year, weekly export sales and shipment numbers for the week ending Thursday, August 24 aren't expected to do much either way for the markets. No initial deliveries were reported against the September Chicago contract. However, initial delivery of 275 contracts was reported against the September Kansas City issue.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $2.95 -$0.03 -$0.50 Dec $0.004
Soybeans: $8.72 -$0.05 -$0.61 Nov -$0.007
SRW Wheat: $3.77 $0.01 -$0.52 Dec $0.014
HRW Wheat: $3.37 $0.04 -$0.92 Dec $0.009
HRS Wheat: $6.01 -$0.02 -$0.55 Dec $0.022

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

(BAS)

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