Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Tropical Depression Harvey bringing heavy rains into the Delta region, some possible rain causing fieldwork delays in the eastern Midwest, a mainly dry trend for the western Midwest and Plains for the extended outlook, and no significant cold weather concerns at this time, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

SOME COLDER WEATHER AHEAD FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for mostly favorable conditions for filling and maturing corn and soybeans at this time. Rain will disrupt seasonal fieldwork through southeast and east-central areas for a time. Colder weather during the middle of next week may slow development of late-filling crops but it does not appear to be cold enough to cause significant concerns.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY UPDATE

As of early Thursday morning, Tropical Depression Harvey, with 30-mile-per-hour winds, was located about 15 miles south of Monroe, Louisiana and tracking towards the north-northeast near 10 mph. The system is expected to track through northwest Mississippi and into western Tennessee today and into Kentucky and the lower Ohio River Valley tomorrow before dissipating.

TROPICAL STORM IRMA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN

Early this morning, the center of Tropical Storm Irma was located near 590 miles west of the Cabo Verde islands in the eastern Atlantic. Irma is moving toward the west near 12 mph. A west-northwestward motion is expected today and tonight, followed by a generally westward motion on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 kilometers per hour) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Irma is likely to become a hurricane later today.

HEAVY RAIN IN DELTA

Key growing areas of the Delta are expecting 3 to 6 inches of rain with locally heavier amounts today before the system moves into the Ohio River Valley tomorrow. Winds will be of a moderate nature with some higher gusts associated with Tropical Depression Harvey. Heavy rains likely delay and disrupt the harvest for soybeans and cotton for at least several days. Rain is unfavorable for maturing crops. Rain and wind is unfavorable for open boll cotton. Quality reductions remain a concern.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE OUTLOOK FOR WEST TEXAS

West Texas will see mostly favorable weather for developing cotton in the region at this time, although some areas might benefit more from drier and warmer conditions and more sunshine.

GOOD HARVEST CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, there are mostly favorable conditions for harvesting spring wheat at this time. Above-normal temperatures for at least another five days will help advance crop development ahead of any potentially colder weather after that.

COLDER NEXT WEEK FOR PRAIRIES

For the Canadian Prairies, there are mostly favorable conditions for harvesting wheat at this time. Mostly favorable conditions continue for maturing canola and harvesting efforts. Late-filling canola will benefit from continued warm weather this week and this weekend. Colder weather next week may bring readings down to frost levels, possibly even a light freeze, but this should be followed by warmer weather at the end of the week.

COOLER WEATHER IN UKRAINE, RUSSIA

Above- to well-above-normal temperatures with little rainfall through much of Ukraine during the mid-August period, but especially through south and east Ukraine and in south Russia, likely increased stress to filling spring grains and oilseeds and may affect yield prospects. Prior weather during the reproductive growth stages was much more favorable in nature. The region has turned somewhat cooler more recently with some rain as well. This should help ease stress to crops.

DRYNESS IN NORTHEAST CHINA

Dryness remains of some concern for key soybean and corn growing areas in west-central to northwest areas of northeast China. Showers may increase in the area early next week, but it is getting a little late in the season for this to do much good. Through the balance of the region, conditions mostly will favor filling soybeans and corn.

MONSOON BRINGS RAINS TO PAKISTAN

A late-season push to the Monsoon has brought significant rains to key growing areas of Pakistan during the past 24 hours. Heavy rains hit Sind province in the southeast. Rain helps improve irrigation and soil moisture for summer crops and irrigation for winter crops. This is mostly favorable except in areas of local flooding.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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