Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Tropical Storm Harvey moving into the Delta region today, mainly favorable conditions for Midwest crops, good harvest conditions in the Plains and Prairies, and colder weather late next week are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

COLDER WEATHER IN MIDWEST EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for mostly favorable conditions for filling and maturing corn and soybeans at this time. No significant freeze threats during the next seven days. Colder weather during the eight- to 10-day period may lead to some frost under the right conditions, but is not expected to cause a freeze. Rain may disrupt seasonal fieldwork through southeast and east areas for a time.

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY UPDATE

As of early Tuesday morning, the center of Tropical Storm Harvey, with 45-mile-per-hour winds, was located just inland about 5 miles west of Cameron, Louisiana. Harvey is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 kilometers/hour). A north-northeastward, and then northeastward motion at a faster forward speed, is expected through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley through Thursday.

Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches from southwestern Louisiana and the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western Kentucky through Friday with isolated amounts up to 10 inches.

HEAVY RAIN IN DELTA

Heavy rains associated with Harvey are expected to shift northward into the main growing areas of the Delta today and Thursday. The axis of the heaviest rainfall appears to have shifted a little to the east from yesterday's forecast. This puts key growing areas of northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, northwest Mississippi and western Tennessee more at risk of 3 to 6 inches and locally to 10 inches. Northeast Arkansas is somewhat less at risk. Heavy rains will be highly unfavorable for maturing crops in the region and especially to open boll cotton. Quality issues will become of increasing concern. Harvest losses may also occur. Winds of around 25 mph and possibly higher may also be of some concern for open boll cotton.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE OUTLOOK FOR WEST TEXAS

West Texas will see mostly favorable weather for developing cotton in the region at this time, although some areas might benefit more from drier and warmer conditions and more sunshine.

GOOD HARVEST CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, there are mostly favorable conditions for harvesting spring wheat at this time. Above-normal temperatures for at least another six days will help advance crop development ahead of any potentially colder weather after that.

WARM, DRY FOR PRAIRIES

For the Canadian Prairies, warm and mainly dry weather are mostly favorable conditions for harvesting wheat at this time. Mostly favorable conditions continue for maturing canola and harvesting efforts. Late-filling canola will benefit from continued warm weather this week and this weekend. Colder weather next week will bear watching, especially for eastern areas and for Ontario.

COOLER WEATHER IN UKRAINE, RUSSIA

Above- to well-above-normal temperatures with little rainfall through much of Ukraine during the mid-August period, but especially through south and east Ukraine and in south Russia, likely increased stress to filling spring grains and oilseeds and may affect yield prospects. Prior weather during the reproductive growth stages was much more favorable in nature. The region has turned somewhat cooler more recently with some rain as well. This should help ease stress to crops.

MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST CHINA

Conditions mostly favor filling corn and soybeans at this time in northeast China due to prior generous rainfall. However, key soybean growing areas of the north could use more rain at this time. The area may be cooler or much cooler early this week, slowing development of this part of the crop, but little rain is expected during the week. Southern growing areas have already received moderate to heavy rainfall during the past week and should not be as cool.

BENEFICIAL RAINS IN INDIA

Key growing areas for cotton, groundnuts and soybeans are in west Madhya Pradesh to Gujarat and northern Maharashtra. Most of the area had beneficial rains last week, and key growing areas of West Madhya Pradesh had more rain during the weekend. Overall, the Indian monsoon remains outside of northwest India and Pakistan at this time.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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