Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Harvey, mainly favorable conditions for filling crops in the Midwest, and good harvest conditions in the Plains and Canadian Prairies, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for mostly favorable conditions for filling and maturing corn and soybeans at this time, although there are still some locations that could use more rain. No significant freeze threats are seen during the next 10 days.

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY UPDATE

As of early Monday morning, the center of Tropical Storm Harvey, with 40-mile-per-hour winds, was located 15 miles north-northeast of Port O'Connor, Texas. Harvey is moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 kilometers/hour) and a slow southeastward motion is expected today. A slow northeastward motion is expected to begin on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is forecast to move off the middle Texas coast this morning, and remain just offshore through Tuesday.

Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of

15 to 25 inches through Friday over the upper Texas coast and into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding, and flash flood emergencies are in effect for portions of southeastern Texas.

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY IMPACTS:

CROPS: Severe flooding and wind damage is likely to affect unharvested cotton grown in southeast Texas and rice and sugarcane grown in southern Louisiana. The extent of the damage will depend on the stage of the harvest activity in each location at this time.

ENERGY: As Harvey moves back offshore today, it will again move over oil and gas rigs in the northwest Gulf of Mexico. This likely will affect operations in the area. However, top winds are expected to remain below hurricane strength, except possibly in wind gusts, so damage to rigs is not expected to be a major problem. Severe flooding in and near Houston/Galveston will continue to affect operations at the major refineries in the area for a while.

OTHER: Shipping from ports along the upper coast of Texas will likely be affected for at least several more days.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE OUTLOOK FOR WEST TEXAS

West Texas will see mostly favorable weather for developing cotton in the region at this time, although some areas might benefit more from drier and warmer conditions and more sunshine.

GOOD HARVEST CONDITIONS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, there are mostly favorable conditions for the harvest of a drought-reduced spring wheat crop at this time.

WARM, DRY FOR PRAIRIES

For the Canadian Prairies, warm and mainly dry weather are mostly favorable conditions for the harvest of a drought-reduced wheat crop at this time. Mostly favorable conditions continue for maturing canola and harvesting at this time. Late-filling canola will benefit from continued warm weather this week.

COOLER WEATHER IN UKRAINE, RUSSIA

Above- to well-above-normal temperatures with little rainfall through much of Ukraine during the mid-August period, but especially through south and east Ukraine and in south Russia, likely increased stress to filling spring grains and oilseeds and may affect yield prospects. Prior weather during the reproductive growth stages was much more favorable in nature. The region has turned somewhat cooler more recently with some rain as well. This should help ease stress to crops.

MAINLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST CHINA

Conditions mostly favor filling corn and soybeans at this time in northeast China due to prior generous rainfall. However, key soybean growing areas of the north could use more rain at this time. The area may be cooler or much cooler early this week, slowing development of this part of the crop, but little rain is expected during the week. Southern growing areas have already received moderate to heavy rainfall during the past week and should not be as cool.

BENEFICIAL RAINS IN INDIA

Key growing areas for cotton, groundnuts and soybeans are in west Madhya Pradesh to Gujarat and northern Maharashtra. Most of the area has beneficial rains last week and key growing areas of West Madhya Pradesh had more rain during the weekend. Overall, the Indian monsoon remains outside of northwest India and Pakistan at this time.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(ES/)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.