DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...112 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...29 AT SNAKE RIVER RESERVOIR WY AND STANLEY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...TOPEKA KS 5.67 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement as it concerns the northern branch of the jet stream. However, there are differences as it concerns the handling of the potential tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico. I favor a little more of today's European model as it concerns the tropical but would use a blend between the models otherwise.

A tropical storm is likely to form in the southwest Gulf of Mexico within the next 12 to 24 hours and head towards the Texas coast. The European model wants to stall the system over the coast for a day two before it turns northeast towards Louisiana and the Delta region. The US model is much faster than that. The slower movement suggested by the European model increases the risk for an extreme rain event over the coastal bend and the upper Texas coast and eventually in southern Louisiana as well. I believe this is the more likely outcome.

The jet stream flow pattern outside of the tropics features ridging in the western US and a weak split trough in the east. The southern part of this trough is indicated over the lower Miss river valley or a little east of there and is a reflection of the tropical. The northern part of this trough suggests cooler conditions for the north and east Midwest with enhanced rain chances in the northeast US. The western ridge implies warm or very warm and mostly dry weather from the west coast to the west plains and the western Canadian Prairies region. Manitoba and the northeast plains may see somewhat more variable temperatures and a little more shower activity.

The northern branch of the jet features strong troughs over the Aleutians and far north-central Canada to the Arctic circle. Ridging is indicated over north and east Alaska and northwest Canada between the two trough centers and in the north Atlantic to the southeast portion of Greenland. The western ridge suggests a continued warm pattern for the west Canada area. The strong north-central Canada trough suggests some cold weather in the area but it appears to remain well north of the key southern Canada growing areas during the outlook period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: The remnants of Harvey is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche this morning. Environmental conditions are conducive for development and a tropical depression or tropical storm is very likely to form today or tonight.

The low moves northwestward at about 10 mph across the western Gulf of Mexico, possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday. This system is likely to slow down once it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a prolonged period of heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of Texas, southwestern Louisiana, and northeastern Mexico into early next week. This system could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast later this week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required later today for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas, and southwestern Louisiana.

SOUTHEAST TEXAS (COTTON/ENERGY): There is high risk that a tropical storm would form over the southwest Gulf of Mexico and head towards the Texas coast during the next 24-48 hours. This is associated with the remnants of tropical storm Harvey now over the eastern bay of Campeche. This is expected to threaten the oil and gas rigs in the northwest Gulf of Mexico and it is expected to bring heavy to torrential rain and winds to cotton areas of the coastal bend and the upper Texas coast.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Mostly favorable conditions for the harvest of a drought reduced spring wheat crop at this time. Showers in South Dakota and in Minnesota during the 5 day period at not overly concerning for mature crops or harvesting and too late for filling crops.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Spring Wheat/Durum Wheat): Mostly favorable conditions for the harvest of a drought reduced wheat crop at this time.

Dryness continues to impact late canola while favoring the maturing crop and early harvesting. Warm temperatures will favor later filling canola at this time.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Rainfall last week and during the weekend and early this week will help to improve the condition of filling crops through the western Midwest region, except areas of Nebraska and Minnesota that experienced flooding. Mostly favorable conditions for filling crops in the eastern Midwest, although parts of central Illinois could use more rain.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Mostly favorable weather for developing cotton in the region at this time, although some areas might benefit more from drier and warmer conditions and more sunshine.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (Winter and Spring grains and oilseeds): Above to well above normal temperatures with little rainfall through much of the region during the past two weeks but especially through south and east Ukraine and in south Russia. This has likely increased stress to filling spring grains and oilseeds and is probably impacting yield prospects at this time. Prior weather during the reproductive growth stages was much more favorable in nature. The region has turned cooler during the past couple of days with some rain as well. This should help ease stress to crops.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Conditions mostly favor reproductive to filling corn and soybeans at this time due to recent generous rainfall. Key soybean growing areas of the north could use more rain at this time with some rain possible, as well as cooler temperatures, at the end of this week and early next week. Southern growing areas have already received moderate to heavy rainfall during this week.

INDIAN MONSOON: Key growing areas for cotton, groundnuts and soybeans are in west Madhya Pradesh to Gujarat and northern Maharashtra. The area had been drier and warmer for much of last week. However, late in the week and during the weekend rain returned to the region. Rain, so far, was heaviest in southern areas of west Madhya Pradesh, in Maharashtra and in eastern and southern areas of Gujarat. This rain was especially beneficial to crop areas of Maharashtra.

Heavy rain totals were reported in southwest to far west Gujarat and extreme southeast Pakistan during the past 24 hours.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to slightly below normal south, below normal north.

East: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers through southeast areas during the past 24 hours. Light showers elsewhere in the south and east during this time. Dry or with only isolated light showers otherwise. Temperatures averaged near to above normal north and central areas, above normal south.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers in eastern areas Thursday. Chance for light to locally moderate showers developing in north and west areas, favoring northwest locations, during Friday or Friday night.

Temperatures average below normal during this period, well below normal northeast areas.

Light showers with locally heavier favoring north and west areas during Saturday. A few light showers favoring east and south areas Sunday. Mainly dry Monday. Temperatures average near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday and Monday.

East: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers developing through extreme northwest areas during Sunday or Sunday night. Light to locally moderate showers may develop during Monday, favoring southern and eastern areas. Temperatures average a few degrees below normal.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal. Rainfall should average near to below normal west, near to above normal south and east.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged above normal west, near to below normal east.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only isolated light showers favoring west and south areas during Thursday. Light to locally moderate showers south, mainly dry north, during Friday. Temperatures average above normal west and south and below normal northeast today and Thursday, near normal Friday.

Light to moderate showers may occur during Saturday in northwest Minnesota, mainly dry elsewhere in the region Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Dry Monday.

Temperatures average near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday and Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal west and southeast areas, above to near normal northeast locations.

Rainfall near to mostly below normal.

Canadian Prairies (Spring Wheat, Canola)

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Mostly dry or with only a few very light showers in Manitoba during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal west, below to near normal east.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers in Manitoba today. Light showers through northern Alberta during Thursday. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring central and east areas during Friday. Temperatures average above normal west and below normal east today and Thursday, near normal west and above normal east Friday.

Dry or with only a few light showers in Manitoba Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures average near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday and Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal through western areas during this period, above to near normal through the east.

Rainfall mostly below normal.

Comment: We will continue to monitor the potential for any significantly colder than normal weather to reach this area from the north. However, compared to yesterday the potential for a significant cold event to reach the key growing areas of the Prairies during the 6-10 day period has diminished somewhat.

By Joel Burgio

(SK)

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