DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was down 3 cents in the September contract and down 2 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were down 5 cents in the September contract and down 1 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 5 1/2 cents in the December Chicago contract, down 6 1/2 cents in the December Kansas City, and down 13 1/2 cents in the December Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.42 at 92.93. December gold is up $6.40 at $1,298.00 while September silver is up 2 cents and September copper is up $0.0410. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 24 at 21,655. October crude oil is down $1.36 at $47.30. October heating oil is down $0.0523 while October RBOB gasoline is down $0.0444 and October natural gas is up $0.064.

Corn:

December corn closed down 2 3/4 cents on a day started with rain in Iowa and then saw showers spread out around the central and western Midwest, catching northern Illinois in the process. The three "I" states have been drier lately, so any amounts this week are beneficial for some late-summer help. While the 2017 corn crop has seen the toughest weather conditions in five years and will be down from last year's record 15.15 billion bushels, U.S. corn supplies remain high enough to keep potential buyers at ease while export business is currently leaning toward South America. Monday morning, USDA said 27.2 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, just over half of last year's amount, but enough to keep total inspections up 25% in 2016-17 from a year ago with two weeks left in the season. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials slowly cutting down their net longs in corn, now down to 103,259 contracts as of Aug. 15, but still enough to keep bearish pressure on December corn prices that continue to make new lows ahead of harvest. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.14 Friday, priced 38 cents below the September contract and near its lowest prices in 2017. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.42 with Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi expected to speak to financial leaders at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, later this week.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed down 1 1/2 cents Monday on light volume with mixed influence from soy products. December soybean meal ended down $1.50 while soybean oil was up 0.20, influenced by a new contract high in October palm oil earlier in the day. The day started on a bearish note with beneficial rains in Iowa, but also received bullish news from USDA that 17.0 mb (463,000 metric tons) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations and another 7.3 mb (198,000 mt) were sold to China, both for 2017-18. There was no immediate bullish response from traders, but the news did help keep prices supported as rains expanded around the central and western Midwest throughout the morning. Later Monday, USDA said 24.4 mb of soybeans were inspected for export last week, bullish enough to keep total inspections up 14% in 2016-17 from a year ago and above USDA's estimated pace with two weeks left in the season. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still lightly bullish in soybeans with 33,285 net longs as of Aug. 15. Commercials held 3,456 net longs, starting to find prices attractive again in the low-$9s. November soybeans remain under bearish pressure with a record harvest still possible this fall, but thanks to active demand, prices are also doing well to hold above the June low at $9.07. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.76 Friday, priced 62 cents below the November contract and holding above its lows in June.

Wheat:

December Chicago wheat closed down 5 1/2 cents Monday, still not finding support yet near its lowest spot prices in over three months. The southwestern Plains continues to catch light scattered showers and a broad coverage of more moderate amounts are expected across the Southern Plains the next seven days. Meanwhile, the northwestern U.S. remains dry with spring wheat harvest expected to be well past the half-way mark in Monday afternoon's Crop Progress report. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials lightly bearish in Chicago wheat with 12,828 net shorts as of Aug. 15. Commercials were net long 18,834 contracts as Chicago wheat prices are getting cheap enough to offer good value. Kansas City wheat on the other hand, continues to be plagued by 61,475 noncommercial net longs, which remain under pressure to liquidate and that is making it difficult for Kansas City wheat prices to trade higher. Even though U.S. wheat production is lower this year, winter wheat prices continue to struggle to find enough support for a sideways trading range. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.88 Friday, priced 28 cents below the September contract and near its lowest price in three months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.47, also near its lowest price in three months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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