DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...112 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...31 AT LEADVILLE CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...ST LOUIS MO 2.00 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first couple days of the period, fair agreement during the balance of the period.

There are two problem areas today as it concerns model agreement. The first is within the northern branch of the jet stream. The US model moves the next trough inland across British Columbia Canada and into central Alberta and then across northern Saskatchewan as a cut off upper level low next Thursday through Saturday. This model is forecasting significant rainfall for not only Alberta and northern Saskatchewan but also eastern Saskatchewan, Manitoba and the eastern Dakotas region. The European model is somewhat weaker and little further north with the trough and would suggest less or much less rainfall chances. I am leaning more in the direction of the European model as it concerns this feature but have mentioned a slight chance of added rainfall in my Canadian Prairies region 6 to 10 day forecast below. The stronger trough associated with the US model also leads to a little more rain for the central plains and Midwest regions towards the end of the period.

The second problem area as it concerns model agreement occurs in the tropics. Today's European model shows what is now tropical storm Harvey, just east of the Caribbean this morning, moving into the southern Yucatan peninsula next Wednesday. To this point the model is in agreement with the NHC forecast track. After that the model shows the tropical turning north into the central and then the northwest Gulf of Mexico late next week or next weekend. This is too far out in the forecast to be very confident about and is not supported by today's US model. I would consider this in the slight chance category at this time. It is something that will need to be monitored during the weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 59.1 West or about 30 miles east-southeast of Barbados. Harvey is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey should move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea later today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours. The extended range outlook suggests a track towards the northern Central America region or southeast Mexico next Tuesday or Wednesday.

An area of low pressure located about 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to show signs of organization. Only a slight increase in organization could lead to the formation of a tropical depression within the next day two before upper-level winds become less favorable for development early next week. The low is expected to move west-northwestward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Mostly favorable conditions for the harvest of a drought reduced spring wheat crop at this time. Drier weather and warmer temperatures during the next 7 days will maintain stress to late filling corn and soybeans while favoring early maturing crops.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Spring Wheat/Durum Wheat): No significant rainfall is being forecast for the region for at least the next 7 days. This is a favorable weather pattern for the harvest of a drought reduced wheat crop and maturing and harvesting canola. Canola is also likely to be impacted by the summer dry pattern but not to the same extent as the wheat crop. Late filling crops will continue to be impacted by the dryness.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rains during this week in Nebraska, eastern South Dakota, Minnesota and parts of western Iowa will help maintain or improve conditions for filling crops...except in local areas of flooding or hail damage. Elsewhere in Iowa rainfall levels were more scattered in nature so some benefited while a few missed out. Crops in the east have likely benefited from warmer temperatures as soil moisture remains favorable.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Cotton will likely benefit from near to above normal temperatures with only a few light showers or a little light rain at times during the next 7 days.

SOUTH TEXAS COTTON: No significant concerns for the harvest during the next 5-7 days. After that we will need to monitor the track of TS Harvey now approaching the eastern most Caribbean.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (Winter and Spring grains and oilseeds): Above to well above normal temperatures with little rainfall for another few days. Yield prospects for crops remain near to above normal over much of Ukraine and Russia due to above normal rainfall during the past 30 days in much of the region. However recent hot temperatures have increased the risk to filling crops in some locations. The weather looks to turn cooler with some increase in rainfall early next week.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Conditions mostly favor reproductive to filling corn and soybeans at this time due to recent generous rainfall.

However, more rain will be needed to support filling crops as seasonal rains remain below normal. The forecast includes some chance for periodic showers during the next week or so.

INDIAN MONSOON: Key growing areas for cotton, groundnuts and soybeans from west Madhya Pradesh to Gujarat and northern Maharashtra remain mostly dry but not very hot at this time. Prior rains maintain favorable conditions for development while the current dry weather favors any replanting for cotton in the Gujarat. The forecast suggests that rain will return to the region this weekend and early next week. The heaviest rainfall and the best coverage will center on West Madhya Pradesh, east and north Maharashtra and eastern Gujarat.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Significant rainfall totals have occurred during the past 7 days in wheat areas of Western Australia, southern South Australia and Victoria. These areas may see addition shower activity during the next 3 to 5 days. The balance of the wheat belt is somewhat drier at this time.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: A few light showers favoring north and west areas yesterday or last night. Temperatures averaged near to below normal yesterday.

East: Light to moderate showers with locally heavier occurred through eastern Indiana, Ohio and southeast Michigan during the past 24 hours. Very light showers in western Indiana, southwest Michigan and Wisconsin. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to mostly above normal.

Forecast...

West: A few light showers with locally heavier moved across the region today.

Dry or with only a few light showers Saturday. Chance for scattered showers and thundershowers north, fair south, Sunday or Sunday night. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal Saturday and Sunday.

Episodes of scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers Monday through early Tuesday. Rainfall may be heaviest through northern and eastern areas. Drier later Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near normal Wednesday.

East: Mostly dry during the daytime hours today. Light to locally moderate showers tonight or during Saturday will tend to favor north and central Indiana and Ohio. Drier again during Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal today and Saturday, above normal Sunday.

Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms appear likely from northern Illinois through Wisconsin and Michigan during later Monday or during Tuesday.

The balance of the region will see light to moderate thundershowers with locally heavier mostly occurring during Tuesday. Drier again Wednesday.

Temperatures average above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near normal west and below normal east early in the outlook period, near to above normal later in the period. Rainfall should average near to above normal west, near to below normal east.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Light to locally moderate showers developed in central and southeast North Dakota and eastern South Dakota mainly overnight last night. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to mostly above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only isolated light showers favoring eastern and southern areas today through Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Dry or with only light showers with locally heavier in southern areas Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal west, near to a few degrees above normal east.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal.

Rainfall near to below normal.

Canadian Prairies (Spring Wheat, Canola)

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Dry or with only a few very light showers during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light or very light showers today through Sunday. Temperatures average above normal today, near normal west and above normal central and east areas Saturday, near to below normal north and near normal south Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal Monday, above to well above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal early in this period, near to above normal later. Rainfall near to below normal, although the is a slight chance for near to above normal rainfall through northwest and southeast areas.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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