DTN Early Word Grains
Another Green Market Morning
December corn was unchanged, November soybeans were 1 cent higher, and December Chicago (SRW) wheat was 1 cent higher.
CME Globex Recap:Grain and oilseed markets were green early Friday morning, with overnight trade quiet once again. Outside markets were mostly higher with only natural gas showing a loss, support coming from a lower U.S. dollar. Also, DJIA futures were showing a small loss following Thursday's 200-plus point meltdown.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 274.14 points (1.2%) lower at 21,750.73, the NASDAQ Composite lost 123.20 points (1.9%) to 6,222.91, and the S&P 500 fell 38.10 points (1.5%) to 2,430.01 Thursday. DJIA futures were 1 point lower early Friday morning. Asian markets closed mostly lower with Japan's Nikkei down 232.22 points (1.2%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng falling 296.65 points (1.1%) and China's Shanghai Composite adding 0.29 point. European markets were trading lower with London's FTSE 100 down 64.88 points (0.9%), Germany's DAX losing 71.98 points (0.6%), and France's CAC 40 off 51.95 points (1.0%). The euro was 0.0017 higher at 1.1742 while the U.S. dollar index fell 0.13 to 93.55. September 30-year T-Bonds were 8/32 higher at 155'30 while December gold added $8.90 to $1,301.40. Crude oil was $0.14 higher at $47.23 while Brent crude gained $0.04 to $51.07. China's Dalian soybean futures were lower and Malaysian palm oil futures were higher again overnight.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | Thursday's weekly export sales and shipment update (for the week ending Thursday, August 10) showed unshipped corn sales at only 137 mb. | 1) | December corn looks like it won't be satisfied until it hits a new contract low. |
| 2) | November soybeans look to have established a short-term uptrend on its daily chart. | 2) | Rains continue to fall over parts of the U.S. Midwest soybean growing area Friday morning. |
| 3) | A lower U.S. dollar index could bring light buying interest to winter wheat. That's about it as bullish factors go. | 3) | According to its futures spreads, the long-term view of winter wheat supply and demand remains extremely bearish. |
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MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN December corn was losing what little bullish momentum it had as these comments were being written early Friday morning. The overnight session saw a tight 1 1/2-cent trading range on volume (futures only) of 34,000 contracts. While Dec corn continues to hold above Wednesday's low of $3.63 1/4, it seems but a matter of time before this gives way and the contract continues on its way toward the previous low of $3.58 1/2 (week of August 29, 2016). Fundamentally there is little fresh news with commercial traders showing they're comfortable with new-crop supply and demand through the strong carry of the December-to-March futures spread.
SOYBEANS November soybeans were trading higher again early Friday, showing a newly established short-term uptrend on its daily chart. While buying interest has been less than enthusiastic, it could gain momentum once the contract is able to post a new 4-day high. For Friday's session that means climbing above $9.41. Recall that previous short-term support on the way down was at $9.40. Fundamentally, rains continue to be seen across parts of the western U.S. Midwest, rains that could strengthen the argument of increased yield potential. Also, old-crop demand remains strong with total sales in Thursday's weekly sales and shipment update (for the week ending Thursday, August 10) coming in at 2.248 bb, 187.7 mb of that unshipped. These numbers are 16% and 7% ahead of last year's pace respectively with roughly three reporting weeks remaining in the 2016-2017 marketing year.
WHEAT The wheat complex was showing small gains again early Friday morning, but as the last few sessions have shown, early gains don't translate to a higher close. Chicago and Kansas City wheat markets continue to show incredibly bearish fundamentals through the strong carry in futures spreads. On top of that, basis for HRW continues to be a wreck with cash prices in parts of central western Kansas within a nickel of the government loan price.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.12 | -$0.02 | -$0.38 | Sep | $0.003 |
| Soybeans: | $8.71 | $0.09 | -$0.62 | Nov | $0.008 |
| SRW Wheat: | $3.86 | -$0.05 | -$0.28 | Sep | $0.000 |
| HRW Wheat: | $3.47 | -$0.05 | -$0.67 | Sep | $0.004 |
| HRS Wheat: | $6.28 | -$0.03 | -$0.42 | Sep | $0.007 |
Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com
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