Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Heavy rain in the northwestern Midwest, continued limited precipitation in the western Midwest, and more dryness in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

LARGE MIDWEST RAIN VARIANCE

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for heavy northwestern Midwest rain to benefit filling row crops. Timely and beneficial rains, except in areas of local flooding and wind or hail damage, has been noted this week for filling corn and soybeans, especially through the northwestern Midwest. However, rain has again bypassed a significant portion of the state of Iowa while growing areas in Nebraska, eastern South Dakota and northwest Iowa received more than expected rain and higher coverage. No significant heat stress is expected, although above-normal temperatures are expected at times.

RAIN FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Southern Plains crop areas have generally favorable conditions for developing crops. Rainfall of moderate to locally heavier amounts is forecast for this week, which will offer additional benefit overall.

MINIMAL NORTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

In the Northern Plains, generally dry conditions remain in effect. This pattern favors harvest of the drought-ravaged spring wheat crop, and increases the risk to late-filling row crops.

DRY IN PRAIRIES

Canadian Prairies crop areas have little to no rain forecast through the next week. This is a favorable weather pattern for harvest of the drought-reduced wheat crop and maturing and harvesting canola. Canola is also likely to be affected by the summer dry pattern, but not to the same extent as the wheat crop. Late-filling crops will continue to be affected by the dryness.

LOCAL UKRAINE HEAT STRESS

Yield prospects for crops remain near to above normal over much of Ukraine and Russia due to above-normal rainfall during the past 30 days in much of the region. However, recent hot weather may increase the risk to filling crops in some locations. The above-normal temperature pattern continues through the weekend while next week looks to be cooler.

SHORT-TERM CHINA RAIN BENEFIT

Conditions mostly favor reproductive to filling corn and soybeans at this time in northeastern China due to recent generous rainfall. However, more rain will be needed to support filling crops, as seasonal rains remain below normal. The forecast includes some chance for periodic showers during the next week or so.

FAVORABLE INDIA PATTERN

Across India, key crop areas from west Madhya Pradesh to Gujarat and northern Maharashtra remain mostly dry but not very hot. The forecast suggests that rain will return to the region this weekend and early next week.

BENEFICIAL AUSTRALIA RAIN

Across Australia, significant rainfall has been noted during the past seven days in wheat areas of Western Australia, southern South Australia and Victoria. These areas may see additional showers during the next week. Other wheat areas are somewhat drier at this time.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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