DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level analysis features moderate to strong troughs over western Alaska, western Canada, eastern Canada and the northern Atlantic. The west Canada trough extends from northwest Canada to the southern Canadian Prairies. The east Canada trough features a closed off upper level low centered just east of James Bay. We also note a weak ridge between the two Canada troughs extending from northwest of Hudson Bay to western Ontario. The southern branch of the jet stream features strong ridge centers well to the west of northern California in the Pacific and east of Bermuda in the Atlantic. A weaker ridge is shown over the southeast U.S. A broad trough is over the Rockies and the western plains at this time. Also the southeast Canada trough extends southward into the northeast U.S. Finally Hurricane Gert in the Atlantic is reflected at upper levels of the Atmosphere by a weak low centered between North Carolina and Bermuda.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period. I favor a blend between the models again today. The period will begin with a ridge over the lower Miss river valley and covering much of the eastern U.S. region. An upper level trough is shown moving over the northeast plains and the upper Midwest Monday and this trough moves over the Great Lakes region and the eastern Midwest Tuesday. The Midwest region will likely see above normal temperatures ahead of this trough and near to above normal temperatures just behind it. The longer range maps show the northeast U.S. trough deepening somewhat next Wednesday and Thursday and weakening somewhat by Friday. The subtropical ridge is shown reforming over the Rockies and the southwest plains early in the outlook period. Later in the period the ridge weakens again in response to a new trough moving inland across the Pacific Northwest.

The mean maps at 8-10 days, Wednesday through Friday of next week, show a trough over or just off the west coast of North America...strongest off the coast of Canada. We see a mean ridge over the central Canada region with continued well above normal heights over north-central Canada. The second mean trough is over eastern North America and strongest over east Canada and central and east Great Lakes region. This is a warm or very warm period for the western and northwest plains and the Canadian Prairies regions. Rainfall mostly below normal. The eastern plains and the western Midwest regions should see near to above normal temperatures and near to below normal rainfall. The eastern Midwest and the northern Delta should see somewhat cooler temperatures and somewhat more rainfall. The southern Delta region and the southeast US should see above normal temperatures early in the period, near normal later. Rainfall near to below normal. However in these areas we may also need to keep an eye on the tropics.

By Joel Burgio

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...108 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...28 AT CLIMAX CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...CHARLOTTE NC 2.05 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period. I favor a blend between the models again today.

The period will begin with a ridge over the lower Miss river valley and covering much of the eastern US region. An upper level trough is shown moving over the northeast plains and the upper Midwest Monday and this trough moves over the Great Lakes region and the eastern Midwest Tuesday. The Midwest region will likely see above normal temperatures ahead of this trough and near to above normal temperatures just behind it. The longer range maps show the northeast US trough deepening somewhat next Wednesday and Thursday and weakening somewhat by Friday. The subtropical ridge is shown reforming over the Rockies and the southwest plains early in the outlook period. Later in the period the ridge weakens again in response to a new trough moving inland across the Pacific Northwest.

The mean maps at 8-10 days, Wednesday through Friday of next week, show a trough over or just off the west coast of North America...strongest off the coast of Canada. We see a mean ridge over the central Canada region with continued well above normal heights over north-central Canada. The second mean trough is over eastern North America and strongest over east Canada and central and east Great Lakes region. This is a warm or very warm period for the western and northwest plains and the Canadian Prairies regions. Rainfall mostly below normal. The eastern plains and the western Midwest regions should see near to above normal temperatures and near to below normal rainfall. The eastern Midwest and the northern Delta should see somewhat cooler temperatures and somewhat more rainfall. The southern Delta region and the southeast US should see above normal temperatures early in the period, near normal later. Rainfall near to below normal. However in these areas we may also need to keep an eye on the tropics.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gert, with 90 MPH winds, was located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 68.4 West or 330 miles northwest of Bermuda. Gert is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). An even faster east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. This system is heading out to sea. We also note a couple of weak disturbances within tropcail waves moving westward over the southern Atlantic. The first of this disturbances may move into the Caribbean Sea by Friday.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Mostly favorable conditions for the harvest of a drought reduced spring wheat crop at this time. Drier weather during the next 10 days will increase the risk to late filling corn and soybeans while heat stress remains low.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Spring Wheat/Durum Wheat): No significant rainfall is being forecast for the region for at least the next 7 days, possibly longer.

This is a favorable weather pattern for the harvest of a drought reduced wheat crop and for canola. Canola is also likely to be impacted by the summer dry pattern but not to the same extent as the wheat crop. Late filling crops will continue to be impacted by the dryness.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Some timely and beneficial rains this week for filling corn and soybeans, especially through the western Midwest region. However there is still some risk that dry areas in Iowa may miss out on this rainfall. No significant heat stress is expected, although above normal temperatures are expected at times.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Cotton will likely benefit from drier conditions and near to mostly above normal temperatures during the next 7 days...although the northern part of the crop belt may see showers at times.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (Winter and Spring grains and oilseeds): Yield prospects for crops remain near to above normal over much of Ukraine and Russia due to above normal rainfall during the past 30 days in much of the region. However recent hot temperatures may increase the risk to filling crops in some locations.

Yesterday the highs reached 88-96F in eastern areas of Ukraine.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Conditions mostly favor reproductive to filling corn and soybeans at this time due to recent generous rainfall.

However, more rain will be needed to support filling crops as seasonally rains remain below normal.

INDIAN MONSOON: Rain in northeast and far south India yesterday. Drier weather covers much of the balance of India at this time. This is highly favorable for key crop areas of Gujarat after prior flooding rains. More rain is needed in the major soybean belt and it appears likely that this will occur within the next week or so. Rainfall is also needed in Maharashtra. This area may also see needed rains late this week or early next week but this is a little more uncertain.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Needed rains have occurred in Victoria crop areas during the past 24 hours with more rain likely when a disturbance tracks through the area later this weekend. There is also at least a chance that showers would move through key wheat areas in southeast South Australia and in southern New South Wales during this time frame.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Rain and heavy thunderstorms occurred through central and east Nebraska, except the extreme southeast areas. Light to locally moderate showers were reported in south and west Iowa during this time. A few light showers elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below normal north, above normal south.

East: Isolated thundershowers were reported through portions of central Illinois during the past 24 hours. Little elsewhere in the region yesterday.

Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

West: Showers, thundershowers and some rain today into tonight. Heaviest activity favoring Minnesota. Drier during Thursday. A few showers and possible thundershowers during Friday, especially through southwest areas. Temperatures average near to slightly below normal.

Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered thundershowers redevelop in northern areas Sunday. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers Monday.

Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

East: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers through northwest areas today and across the northeast areas during Thursday. Light showers with locally heavier elsewhere in the region during period. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring western areas during Friday. Temperatures average above normal today and Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Dry or with only a few light showers favoring east and south areas Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier Monday or Monday night. Temperatures average near normal Saturday, above normal Sunday and Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average above normal during the first couple of days of the period, near to above normal west and below normal east later in the period. Rainfall should average near to below normal west, near to above normal central and east.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Scattered light showers with locally heavier through the Dakotas and northern Minnesota during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal in the western areas, mostly below normal central and east.

Forecast: Moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur mainly in Minnesota today and tonight. Light to locally moderate showers may occur in eastern South Dakota, little elsewhere in the region, during this time. Mostly dry or with only a few light or very light showers tomorrow. Dry Friday.

Temperatures average above normal west and below normal east today, above normal west and near normal east Thursday, mostly above normal Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Chance for scattered showers through eastern South Dakota during Sunday, continued drier elsewhere in the region Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures average above normal Saturday and Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal. Rainfall mostly below normal.

Canadian Prairies (Spring Wheat, Canola)

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Light showers with locally heavier were reported in northern Saskatchewan and in Manitoba during the past 24 hours. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to below normal in the west, near to above normal in the east.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers favoring eastern areas today. Mostly dry Thursday. Dry or with only a few light showers developing through northwest areas Friday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, near to above normal tomorrow and Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures average below normal west and above normal east Saturday, mostly near normal Sunday, above normal west and near normal east Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average mostly above normal.

Rainfall near to mostly below normal.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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