USDA Reports Flash

USDA Trims Corn Yield to 169.5 BPA

Emily Unglesbee
By  Emily Unglesbee , DTN Staff Reporter
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USDA released its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports Thursday. (Logo courtesy of USDA)

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- USDA trimmed its estimate of the average U.S. corn yield to 169.5 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 174.6 last year, but well above pre-report estimates. That nudged the agency's new-crop corn production estimate down to 14.2 billion bushels, down from last year's bin-buster crop of 15.1 billion bushels, but also well above pre-report expectations.

Soybean yield and production were actually increased to 49.4 bpa and 4.4 billion bushels, which also blew past pre-report estimates.

As expected, spring wheat production was dropped to 402 million bushels, down from 534 million bushels last year and the July estimate of 423 million bushels, a consequence of severe drought in the Dakotas.

The crop estimates were released Thursday in USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports. These August reports are the first of the 2017 season to take into account field surveys conducted by USDA in July.

Thursday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for new-crop corn and new-crop soybeans and neutral for wheat, according to DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were bearish for corn, soybean and wheat, he said.

For DTN's exclusive audio comments on today's reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…

Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

USDA's projected corn yield of 169.5 bpa is the lowest since 2015, when farmers produced an average of 168.4 bpa. At 14.153 billion bushels, the estimated corn production number is the lowest since the 13.6-billion-bushel crop in 2015, as well.

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If realized, the projected corn crop would be the third highest on record for yield and production. Both yield and production corn estimates are likely to surprise market analysts, who had expected significantly lower numbers given rocky planting conditions and summer weather extremes this year.

Domestically, new-crop (2017-18) corn endings stocks were trimmed slightly to 2.273 billion bushels from the July estimate, which landed within pre-report estimates. Old-crop (2016-17) corn ending stocks were left unchanged from July at 2.370 billion bushels, also within pre-report estimates.

Global new-crop ending stocks were nudged slightly upward to 200.87 million metric tons. Old-crop global ending stocks came in at 228.61 million metric tons. Both numbers surpassed pre-report estimates.

The average farmgate corn price was left unchanged from July at $3.30 per bushel.

SOYBEANS

The projected soybean yield of 49.4 bpa is an increase from the July projection of 48 bpa. At 4.381 billion bushels, the soybean production estimate is up 2% from last year and, if realized, would be a record soybean crop.

Domestically, new-crop soybean endings stocks were pushed upward to 475 million bushels, just above pre-report estimates. Old-crop ending stocks were dropped to 370 million bushels, near the low end of pre-report estimates.

Globally, soybean new-crop ending stocks were pegged at 97.78 million metric tons, with old-crop global stocks coming in at 96.98 million metric tons. Both numbers are well above pre-report expectations.

The average farmgate price for soybeans dropped 10 cents to $9.30 per bushel.

WHEAT

If realized, the projected spring wheat crop of 402 million bushels would be the smallest spring wheat crop since the 389-million-bushel crop of 2002.

All wheat production was dropped to 1.739 billion bushels, down from 2.310 billion bushels last year and the 1.760-billion-bushel crop predicted by USDA in July. Winter wheat alone is expected to produce 1.287 billion bushels, down from 1.672 billion bushels last year.

Domestically, new-crop ending stocks for wheat were pegged at 933 million bushels, down from 938 million bushels in July and within pre-report estimates. Old-crop ending stocks for wheat were left unchanged from July at 1.184 billion bushels, as expected by market analysts.

Global new-crop wheat ending stocks rose slightly from July to 264.69 million metric tons, which surpassed pre-report expectations. Old-crop global ending stocks also nudged upward to 258.56 million metric tons, within pre-report estimates.

The average farmgate wheat price was left unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.

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Editor's note: Join DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom at 12 p.m. CDT Thursday for an in-depth look at the latest USDA Supply and Demand and Crop Production estimates and what they might mean for the markets. Register now at: http://bit.ly/…

U.S. CROP PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2017-2018
Aug Avg High Low July 2016-17
Corn 14,153 13,841 14,070 13,590 14,255 15,148
Soybeans 4,381 4,202 4,260 4,165 4,260 4,307
Grain Sorghum 369 350 379 333 356 480
All Wheat 1,739 1,713 1,784 1,550 1,760 2,310
All Winter 1,287 1,278 1,293 1,258 1,279 1,672
Spring 402 393 440 350 423 534
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2017-2018
Aug Avg High Low July 2016-17
Corn 169.5 166.0 168.5 162.8 170.7 174.6
Soybeans 49.4 47.4 48.0 46.9 48.0 52.1
Grain Sorghum 69.6 66.0 69.0 63.0 67.0 77.9
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2017-2018
Aug Avg High Low July
Corn 2,273 1,966 2,375 1,642 2,325
Soybeans 475 426 474 369 460
Grain Sorghum 52 45 50 40 49
Wheat 933 907 948 806 938
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2016-2017
Aug Avg High Low July 2015-16
Corn 2,370 2,366 2,400 2,320 2,370 1,737
Soybeans 370 401 474 369 460 197
Grain Sorghum 53 55 60 50 53 37
Wheat 1,184 1,185 1,200 1,180 1,184 976
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2016-2017
Aug Avg High Low July 2015-16
Corn 228.61 227.20 228.50 226.00 227.50 212.77
Soybeans 96.98 94.40 95.00 93.50 94.80 77.05
Wheat 258.56 258.10 261.00 256.00 258.10 242.84
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2017-18
Aug Avg High Low July
Corn 200.87 194.70 200.10 183.00 200.80
Soybeans 97.78 92.20 94.00 89.00 93.50
Wheat 264.69 256.70 263.10 245.00 260.60

(AG)

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Emily Unglesbee