DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 5 3/4 cents in the September contract and up 5 3/4 cents in the December. Soybeans were up 10 1/2 cents in the August contract and up 13 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 8 3/4 cents in the September Chicago contract, up 7 1/4 cents in the September Kansas City and up 10 1/4 cents in the September Minneapolis contract.

The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.10 at 93.32. December gold is down $0.50 at $1,264.10 while September silver is down 1 cent and September copper is up $0.0250. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 17 at 22,110. September crude oil is down $0.40 at $49.18. September heating oil is down $0.0172 while September RBOB gasoline is down $0.0282, and September natural gas is up $0.032.

Corn:

December corn closed up 5 3/4 cents Monday on moderate volume, a clue that selling interest has pulled back as prices approached their lowest levels in 2017 -- at least before USDA releases its first field-based yield estimates on Thursday. Eastern Kansas and Missouri saw moderate to heavy rains over the weekend, but other areas of the Corn Belt were dry. Monday afternoon's new-crop ratings from USDA may show small improvement from a week ago, but it is difficult to imagine too much change, given how recent rains have been light in the central Midwest. The central Midwest is expected to stay mostly dry the next five days while the southwestern Plains and northern Midwest have more chances for moderate to heavy showers. On the demand side, export business is slow, but USDA said 38.5 million bushels of corn were inspected for export last week, enough to keep total inspections up 29% in 2016-17 from a year ago. USDA also said 7.1 mb (180,800 metric tons) of new-crop corn were sold to Mexico. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials modestly bullish in corn, holding 148,195 contracts net long as of Aug. 1 while December corn prices continue to hold above support at $3.75. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.25 Friday, priced 41 cents below the September contract and at the low end of its sideways range in 2017. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.10 in a quieter day of trading that saw most other commodities outside of grains trade lower.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 13 cents Monday, a decent bounce after last week's sell-off with help from commercial buying. It also helped that USDA said 25.2 mb of soybeans were inspected for export last week, keeping the total up 15% from a year ago with just four weeks remaining in 2016-17. USDA also said 7.6 mb (206,000 mt) of U.S. soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for the current season. Like corn, USDA's crop ratings for soybeans may show small improvement Monday afternoon, but except for Missouri and eastern Kansas, most areas saw only light rain totals the past seven days and the central Midwest is mostly dry in the five-day forecast. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still lightly bullish in soybeans with 54,705 net longs as of Aug. 1, but specs are not largely committed to either side and that makes sense as there is currently no strong argument for prices in either direction other than the usual bearish seasonal influence for both, corn and soybeans this time of year. With no strong price influence and USDA's WASDE report coming on Thursday, November soybeans appear content to trade between June's low of $9.07 and July's high of $10.47. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.88 Friday, priced 68 cents below the November contract and holding sideways, above $8.40. Among August contracts, there were 343 deliveries of soybeans, 72 deliveries of meal, and 442 deliveries of soybean oil early Monday.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat closed up 8 3/4 cents as prices are starting to show interest from commercial buyers after a month of falling prices. The five-day forecast continues to look dry for the northwestern Plains, but the southwestern Plains is expecting moderate to heavy showers, which will help fall planting conditions. The interesting part of Thursday's WASDE report for wheat will be to see USDA's updated production estimates. With this year's adverse weather in the U.S., Canada and Australia, there is some chance for a reduction in USDA's estimate of world ending wheat stocks. Monday morning USDA said 21.5 mb of wheat were inspected for export last week, putting this season's early total up 17% from a year ago and well above USDA's estimated pace for an 8% decline. Friday's CFTC data showed noncommercials still lightly bullish in Chicago wheat, holding 15,513 net longs as of Aug. 1 and still bruised by the experience of being net short in June. September Chicago wheat prices have fallen back to their old trading ranges and are likely to find support near these levels. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.25 Friday, priced 30 cents below the September contract and still above its previous breakout at $4.18. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.92, down sharply from its highest price in two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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