Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A dry week for the Midwest, and no drought improvement in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies over the next 10 days, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

DRY WEEK FOR U.S.

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for Midwest rainfall to remain limited during the next 10 days, along with no severe heat. Drier weather would benefit crops in some eastern areas. Rainfall is expected to be near to below normal during the next 10 days. Crop conditions are expected to remain stable due to mild temperatures. However, recent heat and dryness in western Midwest areas are leading to expectations for lower yields in corn than a year ago. Soybean prospects are still to be fully determined.

MILDER SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPERATURES

In the Southern Plains, a cooling trend and a few scattered thundershowers will ease stress to reproductive and filling crops during the next five days. Longer-range forecast charts continue to show a farther-west position of subtropical high pressure. This likely means near- to below-normal temperatures for the region, allowing for more favorable development of crops.

MORE DROUGHT FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, little rainfall along with episodes of above- to much-above-normal temperatures stress pollinating corn and filling soybeans with crop losses expected. No significant change in this pattern is forecast during the next 10 days.

ADDITIONAL PRAIRIES DRYNESS

Little rainfall along with episodes of above- to much-above-normal temperatures stress spring wheat and canola in some of the major growing areas of the Canadian Prairies. The center of the drought is southern Saskatchewan. Significant crop losses are expected. No major change in this pattern is expected during the next 10 days.

UKRAINE DROUGHT IMPACT

There are renewed concerns over the lingering impacts of spring and early summer dryness in north-central Ukraine; early wheat harvest yields in this area have been well below a year ago. Prospects are more favorable elsewhere in Ukraine as well as in Russia.

VARIABLE NORTHEASTERN CHINA CONDITIONS

In northeastern China, mostly favorable crop conditions are in effect; however, western Heilongjiang province remains too dry. Some beneficial rains are expected during the next five days.

POSSIBLE RAIN FOR AUSTRALIA

Across Australia, the forecast during the next week appears to be more promising for needed rains to occur in many wheat areas. Rain verification will be closely watched. Winter rainfall deficits have been the worst in five years in many areas.

SCATTERED RAIN DAMAGE IN INDIA

Across India's crop areas, some damage to recently-emerged cotton and groundnuts in the Gujarat peninsula is noted due to excessive rainfall. In other key western cotton and oilseed areas, soil moisture is generally adequate to locally excessive.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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