DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed unchanged in the September contract and up 1/4 cent in the December. Soybeans closed up 6 cents in the August and up 5 1/2 cents in the November. Wheat closed up 1 1/4 cents in the September Chicago, unchanged in the September Kansas City, and up 4 cents in the September Minneapolis. The September U.S. dollar index is down 0.48 at 93.23. August gold is up $7.90 at $1,267.90 while September silver is up $0.11 and September copper is up 0.0015. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 11 at 21,807. September crude oil is up $0.52 at $49.56. September heating oil is up $0.0296, September RBOB gasoline is up $0.0237, and September natural gas is down $0.023.

For the week:

September corn closed down 5 1/2 cents and December closed down 5 1/2 cents. August soybeans were down 8 1/4 cents while the November was down 9 1/4 cents. September Chicago wheat was down 18 1/4 cents, September Kansas City wheat was down 15 cents, and September Minneapolis wheat was down 25 1/4 cents.

Corn:

December corn ended up a quarter-cent in quiet trade Friday, but was down 5 1/2 cents on the week. The week started off with a bearish forecast for heavy rains across the central Midwest, which helped some areas but much of central Iowa was disappointed with only light amounts. There is not much rain expected for the Corn Belt the next seven days, but it will be somewhat helpful that temperatures stay moderate. On the demand side, export sales of corn have dropped off as they often do this time of year while South America's big harvest and cheaper FOB prices win more business. With U.S. corn crops struggling more than usual at this time of year, December corn prices continue to trade in a sideways range. So far, prices are defying their seasonal tendency to trade lower toward harvest. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.31 Thursday, priced 43 cents below the September contract and maintaining a sideways range in 2017. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is down 0.26 after the U.S. Labor Department said the employment cost index was up .5% in the second quarter, a little less than expected. The U.S. Commerce Department estimated real GDP up 2.1% in the second quarter from a year ago, in line with expectations.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 5 1/2 cents Friday helped by an unexpected boost of favorable news for the biodiesel industry. According to DTN Staff Reporter Todd Neeley, a federal appeals court ruled the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) incorrectly reduced the renewable fuel mandate enacted from 2014 to 2017 and ordered EPA to take corrective action (see Friday's DTN article, "Court: EPA Erred on RFS Volumes"). December soybean oil showed an immediate bullish response to the news and finished the day up 0.73 at its highest close in four months. The bigger concern for soybean prices of course, is the state of this year's U.S. crop and problems of dryness in the central and western Midwest are not going away easily. As of Friday, there is no significant rain expected across the Midwest the next ten days, but temperatures will be moderate as more beans reach the pod-setting stage. With this year's soybean crops still at risk of worsening conditions while demand remains active, the trend in November soybeans continues to point up. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.33 Thursday, priced 61 cents below the August contract and down from its highest prices in four months.

Wheat:

September K.C. wheat closed unchanged, possibly nearing support after nearly three consecutive weeks of declining prices. Thursday's spring wheat tour estimate of 38 bushels an acre is being met with widespread skepticism as most would agree that this year's crop deserves more than a 16% yield reduction. No matter what anyone estimates for yield, Minneapolis wheat prices have already been reflecting a serious drought situation and it may be difficult to surpass the July 5 peak of $8.68 1/2, even though conditions are not getting any better. As far as Friday's forecasts go, there is still no significant rain expected in the northwestern Plains, but heavy amounts are anticipated on the western edge of the southwestern Plains. Winter wheat contracts have given back their post-breakout gains of late June and are now searching for a steady price range. Caught in the midst of the worst spring wheat drought since 1988, September Minneapolis wheat remains in an uptrend, but prices continue to correct lower in spite of bullish weather factors. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.48 Thursday, priced 32 cents below the September contract and down from its highest price in two years. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.15, down from its highest price in two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at Todd.Hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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