Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Highly variable rain over the western Midwest, and a generally dry pattern over the central U.S. in the next 10 days, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

LIMITED WESTERN MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for western Midwest crops to see only limited benefit from rainfall this week. Rains during the past 48 hours were disappointing over the driest areas of Iowa while eastern Nebraska did better than expected. Drier weather will continue to affect crops in Iowa during the forecast period, but cooler temperatures should help ease stress to reproductive and early filling crops. The weather pattern over the eastern Midwest is more favorable for crops at this time. However, prior rains and wet conditions are still affecting developing crops, especially soybeans but possibly some corn as well.

MILDER SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPERATURES

In the Southern Plains, a cooling trend and a few scattered thundershowers will ease stress to reproductive and filling crops during the next five days. Longer-range forecast charts continue to show a farther-west position of subtropical high pressure. This likely means near- to below-normal temperatures for the region, allowing for more favorable development of crops.

DROUGHT REDUCES NORTHERN PLAINS WHEAT

In the Northern Plains, production loss to heat and drought is being verified. Wheat tour yield estimates in southwestern North Dakota are running as much as 75% below a year ago.

CONTINUED DRYNESS IN SOUTHERN PRAIRIES

Canadian Prairies crop prospects remain questionable due to extensive dryness in southern Saskatchewan along with southern Alberta and southwestern Manitoba. Significant losses to spring wheat are expected.

HEAT FOR EASTERN UKRAINE

In the Black Sea region, Ukraine and Russia crop prospects remain generally favorable. North-central Ukraine is still suspect on overall production, however, due to the impact of a very dry pattern from spring through early summer. A hotter temperature trend in eastern Ukraine through the end of the week may stress developing summer crops.

TIMELY NORTHEASTERN CHINA RAIN FORECAST

In northeastern China, periods of showers and a variable temperature pattern will help improve conditions for corn and soybeans during the next week. The best chance for widespread rains to occur in key soybean areas of Heilongjiang province appears to be during the middle of next week. However, the drier western growing areas have already had some moderate shower activity during the past 24 hours with more light or moderate showers possible during the next few days.

RAIN CHANCE FOR AUSTRALIA

Across Australia, the forecast during the next week appears to be more promising for needed rains to occur in many wheat areas.

HEAVY WEST INDIA RAIN

Additional heavy rains are moving over the west-central India region and southern Pakistan. This will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture in key growing areas of West Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, including major soybean, cotton and groundnut growing areas. Farther south in Maharashtra, the rain has been more spotty. The north part of this area produces cotton and soybeans while the south is predominantly sugarcane. Maharashtra could use more rain to support favorable growth rates. Southeast Pakistan is a key growing area for cotton. Cotton would mostly benefit from the rain.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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