DTN Midday Grain Comments

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures up 50 points. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 30 points higher. Energies are flat to firmer with crude up 0.05. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are higher with gold up $8.60.

CORN

Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade trying to build on the positive close yesterday with the forecast cooler and drier in the near term. Temperatures should be normal to below normal so without stressful weather market bulls may have trouble near term, but the rains disappointed in the drier parts of Iowa. Ethanol margins have improved this week with the strength in the energy complex and lower corn futures although they have narrowly slightly the last day and a half, with ethanol futures edging higher this morning. Corn basis remains soft with plenty of old crop stocks still around. Weekly export sales were soft at 92,000 metric tons of old crop and 486,600 of new crop. On the December chart support is at the new July low made earlier in the week at $3.80 1/2 with resistance at the 200-day at $3.88 which we are just above at midday then the 10-day at $3.91.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 5 to 7 cents higher at midday with light buying after rains were disappointing in much of Iowa. Meal is $2 to $3 higher and oil is narrowly mixed. Cooler temperatures will limit upside in the near term, even with the disappointing rain coverage. We still have 6 important weeks of weather ahead for beans with cooler and drier weather expected in the near term. Basis has remained steady to firm, with good nearby export demand at the gulf noted and Palm oil making two month highs. Weekly export sales were good at 303,400 metric tons old crop, and 531,800 metric tons of new, 6,700 of old crop meal, 55,200 of new crop meal, and 14,900 of oil. On the November chart support is at the 20-day at 10.02 with resistance at the 10-day at 10.07.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 3 to 7 cents higher with trade working to bounce back from oversold conditions as the spring wheat tour continues to move into the drier growing areas with recent yields in the mid-30s after abandoned acres are taken out. The dollar remains near year lows, but Jordan postponed its tender leaving France as the most recent winner of export business. Trade continues to add carry in the spring wheat, with winter wheat keeping the ample carry in place. Weekly export sales were mediocre at 498,000 metric tons. On the December Kansas City contract support is the 100-day at $4.94. Resistance is at the 50-day at $5.11 then the 10-day at $5.20.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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