DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...111 AT OCOTILLO WELLS CA

LOW WED...34 AT BODIE STATE PARK CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...LINCOLN NE 2.83 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement today. The subtropical ridge is expected to shift westward during the outlook period. The mean ridge on today's 8 to 10 day maps is now shown centered west of the Rockies. It remains a large ridge and does extend its influence northward to the Pacific Northwest, the western portion of the northern plains and the southwest portion of the Canadian Prairies region. However, it now looks to be far enough to the west to allow the eastern trough to shift slightly further west to a position over the eastern Midwest. This allows for cooler temperatures in the Midwest region and opens the door to potential rains for the eastern most areas of the Midwest. I'm thinking Ohio in terms of the enhanced rainfall chances but would not be surprised if this also included Indiana and Michigan. The further west position of the ridge-trough pattern may also allow for cooler temperatures to hold on longer for the central and southern plains area. Rainfall potential for the Canadian Prairies, the northern plains and the western and central Midwest remains fairly limited. Rainfall potential for the central and south plains region is also limited, except in the vicinity of the Texas Panhandle where thunderstorms may continue to occur. The Delta looks to be cooler with near to below normal rainfall. The southeast may see more seasonal temperatures and near to above normal rainfall.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICAL: There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Episodes of hot weather and limited rainfall is expected to continue to significantly stress crops. Major losses to spring wheat have already occurred. Pollinating corn is now being impacted with significant losses likely. The hardest hit areas are from the central Dakotas westward.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Spring Wheat/Durum Wheat): The driest area remains southern Saskatchewan which has seen below normal rainfall since early May.

Significant losses to spring wheat are expected. Drier, hotter weather appears also to include southern Alberta and Manitoba at times during this period.

Northern areas of both Saskatchewan and Alberta are doing somewhat better.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Rains during the past 48 hours were disappointing over the driest areas of Iowa while eastern Nebraska did better than expected. Drier weather will continue to impact crops in Iowa during the forecast period but cooler temperatures should help ease stress to reproductive and early filling crops. The weather pattern over the eastern Midwest is more favorable for crops at this time. However prior rains and wet conditions are still impacting developing crops, especially soybeans but possibly some corn as well.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (CORN,SOYBEANS,SORGHUM): A cooling trend and a few scattered thundershowers will ease stress to reproductive and filling crops during this period. Today's longer range outlook continues to show a further west position of the subtropical ridge. This likely means near to below normal temperatures for the region, allowing for more favorable development of crops...especially irrigated crops.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Increasing thunderstorm activity will blanket the Texas Panhandle with moderate to heavy rainfall later this weekend and early next week. This rain is expected to reach into the northern cotton areas of west Texas next Monday through Wednesday. There is at least some chance for thunderstorms to also develop in southern cotton areas but this is a little more uncertain.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (Winter and Spring grains and oilseeds): Improved crop prospects in central and northern Ukraine. Good to excellent summer crop prospects in west Ukraine. Favorable conditions in east Ukraine, however current hot weather may be somewhat stressful for another day or two. Conditions remain favorable for summer crops in Russia.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Episodes of scattered showers and a variable temperature pattern will help improve conditions for corn and soybeans during the next 5 to 7 days. The best chance for widespread rains to occur in key soybean areas of Heilongjiang province appears to be during the middle of next week. However, the drier western growing areas have already had some moderate shower activity during the past 24 hours with more light or moderate showers possible during the next few days.

INDIAN MONSOON: Additional heavy rains are moving over the west-central India region and southern Pakistan. This will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture in key growing areas of West Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat...including major soybean, cotton and groundnut growing areas. As you move to the south into Maharashtra the rain has been more spotty. The north part of this area produces cotton and soybeans while the south is more sugarcane than anything else. Maharashtra could use more rain to support favorable growth rates.

Southeast Pakistan is a key growing area for cotton. Cotton would mostly benefit from the rain, unless it becomes excessive.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Enough rain to sustain the crop at this time of the year in West Australia. More rain is needed in southeast Australia to prevent a further decline in crop conditions. Despite below normal rainfall in the northeast, yield prospects are better than in the southeast. The forecast during the next 5 to 7 days appears to be more promising for needed rains to occur in many locations.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers occurred in southwest Nebraska and a portion of southwest Iowa during the past 24 hours. Light to locally moderate showers were reported in north-central Iowa during this time.

Only a few light showers with locally heavier otherwise. Temperatures averaged near to below normal yesterday.

East: Moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers occurred through much of Illinois during the past 24 hours. Light to locally moderate showers were reported in portions of Indiana and and Wisconsin. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near normal north and east, above normal southwest areas.

Forecast...

West: Showers and thunderstorms from central through southeast Missouri today, dry elsewhere in the region. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average below normal. Highs mostly 79 to 85F.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers in western areas Sunday. Dry Monday. Dry or with only isolated light showers in northwest areas Tuesday.

Temperatures average below normal Sunday and Monday, near normal Tuesday.

East: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers favoring southern and east-central areas today into tonight. Light rain or showers may linger in eastern locations during Friday, dry central and west Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures average below normal. Highs mostly 78 to 83F.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal Sunday and Monday, near normal Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west, near to below normal east. Rainfall near to below normal, except possibly near to above normal in Ohio.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Dry or with only isolated light showers during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged above normal west, near to above normal east.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only isolated light showers favoring western areas today and Friday, eastern locations during Saturday. Temperatures average above normal west and near to above normal east during this period.

Mostly dry Sunday. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring northeast areas Monday. Mostly dry or with only isolate light showers Tuesday.

Temperatures average above to well above normal Sunday and Monday, above to well above normal west and near normal east Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal west, somewhat more variable east. Rainfall should average below normal west and central areas, near to below normal east.

Central/South Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Sorghum)

Summary: Light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with locally heavier occurred in eastern Kansas, extreme southwest Kansas, southeast Colorado and portions of the Texas Panhandle during the past 24 hours. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below normal through northwest and north areas, above normal elsewhere in the region...well above normal from southern Kansas southward with highs mostly 98 to 102F yesterday.

Forecast: Episodes of scattered to widely scattered thundershowers in eastern Colorado, western Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles today through Saturday. Mostly dry or with only isolated light showers elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures average near to below normal through north and central areas during this period, above to near normal through the south.

Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday centered on the Texas Panhandle but possibly including western Oklahoma, southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado at times. Mainly dry or with only isolated light showers elsewhere in the region during this period. Temperatures average below normal. Highs mostly in the 80s, except low 90s may still occur in southern Oklahoma and north-central Texas and some western areas may not reach 80 during times of afternoon showers.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west, near to below below normal east. Rainfall should average near to below normal, except possibly near to above normal through southwest areas.

Canadian Prairies (Spring Wheat, Canola)

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to mostly above normal. Highs yesterday were mostly 79 to 86 F (26-30 C).

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light or very light showers Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average above to well above normal today, near to above normal northwest and above to well above normal elsewhere in the region Friday, near to above normal north and above to well above normal south Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers in extreme north areas Sunday.

Scattered light to locally moderate showers may occur in Manitoba during Monday. Mostly dry again Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal north and above normal south Sunday and Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal southwest and central areas, near to above normal elsewhere in the region. Rainfall near to below normal.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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