DTN Early Word Grains
Shades of Green
December corn was 1 cent higher, November soybeans were 4 cents higher, and September Chicago (SRW) wheat was 5 cents higher.
CME Globex Recap:Commodities in general were showing a shade of green on the quote screen Wednesday morning, meaning most were trading higher. One exception was gold, where a short-term downtrend has been established this week. As for grain and oilseed markets, canola was the only one showing red. Cotton was also under pressure, fitting since it was one of the few ag markets able to rally Tuesday.
OUTSIDE MARKETS:The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 100.26 points (0.5%) higher at 21,613.43, the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.37 points to 6,412.17, and the S&P 500 added 7.22 points (0.3%) to 2,477.13 Tuesday. DJIA futures were 18 points higher early Wednesday morning. Asian markets closed higher with Japan's Nikkei up 94.96 points (0.5%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining 88.97 points (0.3%), and China's Shanghai Composite rallying 3.99 points (0.1%). European markets were trading higher with London's FTSE 100 adding 51.05 points (0.7%), Germany's DAX up 48.44 points (0.4%), and France's CAC 40 gaining 43.30 points (0.8%). The euro was 0.0007 lower at 1.1641 while the U.S. dollar index added 0.03 to 94.12. September 30-year T-Bonds were 7/32 higher at 152'27 while August gold lost $5.30 to $1,246.80. Crude oil was $0.35 higher at $48.24 while Brent crude added $0.25 to $50.45. China's Dalian soybean and Malaysian palm oil futures were both higher again overnight.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
| BULL | BEAR | ||
| 1) | December corn could be trying to build short-term technical support on its daily chart. | 1) | A large blog of rain is showing up on morning weather maps across the western Corn Belt, possibly bringing sellers back to corn Wednesday. |
| 2) | Demand remains solid for U.S. old-crop soybean supplies. | 2) | November soybeans remain in a strong short-term downtrend on its daily charts. |
| 3) | The short-term downtrend in winter wheat may have run its course. | 3) | Strong commercial selling continues to dominate the spring wheat futures market. |
The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.
MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTSCORN All it took to rally corn Wednesday morning was - you guessed it - a big blob of rain across the western Corn Belt on radar maps. Corn is again showing the ebb and flow of trade between conditions (Wednesday morning weather) and forecasts, similar to Tuesday's sell-off. Technically corn still hasn't done much damage to its price charts, though the December contract is below support at $3.84 1/4 on its short-term daily. Beyond that is its low of $3.74, if sellers wake up Wednesday and decide to rejoin the party.
SOYBEANS November soybeans continue to hold above the previous short-term low on its daily chart of $9.84. However, the contract's minor trend remains down, meaning it should move below this price in the near future. Rain across the western Corn Belt Wednesday morning could be the catalyst, unless it was built into the sell-off seen Monday and Tuesday. Fundamentally there is little fresh news, with demand for old-crop supplies remaining strong, possibly stronger than USDA has calculated on its supply and demand tables at this point. Keep an eye on the November-to-January futures spread as its carry continues to quietly strengthen.
WHEAT The wheat complex was higher overnight with winter contracts finally allowed to breathe by the Minneapolis spring market. Commercial selling in the latter finally eased, after a number of pressure-filled days that saw the carry in the September-to-December spread strengthen to almost 10 cents while the December-to-March spread erased its double-digit inverse from the not too distant past. September Chicago is testing support between $4.78 1/4 and $4.64 1/2, while momentum indicators show the contract to be short-term oversold. This could lead to a rally, if given a little time by the Minneapolis market.
| DTN Cash | Change From | National | Contract | Change from | |
| Commodity | Index | Prev Day | Avg. Basis | Month | Prev Day |
| Corn: | $3.24 | -$0.09 | -$0.44 | Sep | -$0.001 |
| Soybeans: | $9.19 | -$0.16 | -$0.62 | Aug | $0.004 |
| SRW Wheat: | $4.43 | -$0.15 | -$0.31 | Sep | $0.000 |
| HRW Wheat: | $4.08 | -$0.13 | -$0.65 | Sep | $0.018 |
| HRS Wheat: | $6.77 | -$0.33 | -$0.40 | Sep | -$0.003 |
Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com
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