DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

Row crops are starting lower with rain working its way eastward across the central and northern Midwest Wednesday. Wheat prices are a little higher early, nearing support after three weeks of falling lower.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Higher
U.S. Dollar Index:	Higher
Gold:	Lower
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

December corn was down 1 3/4 cents early after a quiet overnight session with rain falling from Kansas to Wisconsin, moving eastward across Iowa later Wednesday. Southern Iowa and western Illinois are in flash flooding watches while the southern Plains are in heat advisory. The rain is headed to the Ohio River Valley on Thursday and then the forecast for most of the Midwest is expected to turn drier, followed by milder summer temperatures. Wednesday's rain will be helpful to areas of the western and central Corn Belt, but it won't be the total miracle this year's crops need. With Monday's USDA crop ratings revealing several areas of crop distress around the Midwest, December corn continues to trade sideways, above support at $3.75. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.24 Tuesday, priced 44 cents below the September contract and back near its lowest prices in 2017. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.03 with no significant change in monetary policy expected at the conclusion of Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting.

Soybeans:

November soybeans were down 5 1/2 cents early with a band of rain showers in the western Corn Belt, expected to cross Iowa later Wednesday, possibly becoming severe and putting southern Iowa and western Illinois at risk of flash floods. While Wednesday's rain and milder temperatures in the days ahead will be helpful to some soybean areas, it is difficult to be too optimistic about this year's crop as Monday's crop ratings from USDA were the fifth worst since 2000. On the demand side, FOB soybean prices are 14 cents cheaper at the U.S. Gulf than at Brazil's ports and that favors more U.S. soybean exports. With more soybeans soon setting pods, weather continues to be the main focus, but prices' bearish seasonal tendency also needs to be considered. For now, the trend remains up in November soybeans. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.19 Tuesday, priced 62 cents below the August contract and down from its highest prices in four months.

Wheat:

September Chicago wheat was up 2 1/4 cents at the morning break, an early hint of support as prices trade near their lowest level in five weeks. Day one of the Wheat Quality Council's Hard Red Spring Wheat Tour crossed southern North Dakota and saw average-looking wheat fields on the eastern side, but crops devastated by drought as the tour moved west. The tour's estimate of spring wheat yields was just shy of 38 bushels an acre on day one, down from 43.1 bushels a year ago. Day two will travel across northern North Dakota and expects to find a similar situation. There is virtually no rain expected in the northwestern Plains the next seven days or in the extended forecast. Winter wheat prices have given back the steep rally of late June and are back in their old, familiar sideways range where support should be closer at hand. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.43 Tuesday, priced 31 cents below the September contract and down sharply from its highest price in two years.

ToddHultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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