Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Favorable rain crossing the western Midwest, and validation of drought-reduced wheat production in the Northern Plains, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

WESTERN MIDWEST RAIN WATCH

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a good chance for much-needed rain to occur in the driest areas of Iowa and northern Missouri within the next 24 hours. Some moderate rains already formed Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This is an important event, as the next chance for significant rainfall is not immediately apparent. Cooler temperatures at the end of this week through early next week should favor reproductive crops in areas that have adequate or better soil moisture. Prior hot conditions over west and southwest growing areas and very wet conditions in eastern growing areas will likely reduce yield potential for both corn and soybeans.

MONSOON INFLUENCE FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, influence from a robust southwestern U.S. monsoon is expected to be beneficial. A cooling trend with scattered thundershowers suggests an easing of stress for reproductive and filling crops through the end of the week.

DROUGHT REDUCES NORTHERN PLAINS WHEAT

In the Northern Plains, production loss to heat and drought is being verified. Wheat tour yield estimates in southwestern North Dakota are running as much as 75% below a year ago.

HOT AND DRY FOR SOUTHERN PRAIRIES

Hot and dry conditions are forecast for the very dry southern Canadian Prairies sector through the end of the week. This includes southern Saskatchewan, along with southern Alberta. Portions of southwestern Manitoba have also trended drier recently. Significant losses to spring wheat are expected.

FAVORABLE BLACK SEA REGION PROSPECTS

In the Black Sea region, Ukraine and Russia crop prospects remain generally favorable. North-central Ukraine is still suspect on overall production, however, due to the impact of a very dry pattern from spring through early summer.

WIDELY VARIABLE CHINA PATTERN

In northeastern China, rainfall fortunes show a large variance. Mostly favorable conditions are in effect over key corn growing areas in Jilin and Liaoning provinces. However, most of Heilongjiang, the major soybean-production province, has had less than half its seasonal rainfall average since the first of May.

SCATTERED AUSTRALIA SHOWERS

Across Australia, moderate rain is indicated for portions of Western Australia and New South Wales. Dry conditions remain in effect overall, however. Despite recent precipitation, many wheat areas continue to have some of the worst seasonal rainfall deficits in the last five years.

WEST INDIA RAIN

Across India, heavy rains in the western province of Gujarat are generally beneficial despite some coastal flooding. Mostly favorable moisture conditions are also in effect in the major soybean areas of western Madhya Pradesh. Maharashtra in the north-central portion of the subcontinent has also had favorable precipitation. Southern growing areas of India look to be drier and somewhat hotter during the next week.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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