DTN Midday Livestock Comments

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Light-to-moderate pressure has developed in cattle trade at midday following early support that quickly moved into the market. This may pressure any additional support through the rest of the afternoon. Lean hog markets remain higher, but have pulled away from early gains. Corn prices are higher in light trade. September corn futures are 2 cents higher. Stock markets are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones is 133 points higher while Nasdaq is up 4 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Mixed futures trade is seen at midday as early buyer support quickly evaporated. Strong market gains backed away from the market when traders moved from the sidelines and back into the market. But the ability to keep prices mixed in a narrow trading range is likely to allow prices to focus on market stability through the end of the session. Futures trade is hovering from 30 cents lower to 30 cents higher at midday, allowing traders to adjust positions within the narrow range. Cash cattle activity is starting to develop with light-to-moderate trade seen in the North at $117 live basis and $188 dressed basis. These prices are generally $2 lower than last week's level. Bids can be seen through the South at $117 and $186 to $187 in the North. Activity on the Fed Cattle Exchange Auction report today listed a total of 2,119 head, with 772 actually sold, 944 head listed as unsold, and 403 listed as PO. The weighted average was $117.68. The state-by-state breakdown looks like this: KS 378 total head, with 130 head sold at $117.50, 105 head unsold, 143 head listed as PO ($117.75); NE 962 total head, with 369 head sold at $117.50-$117.75, 593 head unsold, and 0 listed as PO; TX 554 total head, with 235 head sold at $117.75, 112 head unsold, and 207 head listed as PO ($117.75); CO 134 total head, with 0 head sold, 134 head unsold; IA no test; other states (OK,SD,) 91 total head, with 38 head sold (SD) at $118.25, 0 head unsold, and 53 head (OK) listed as PO ($117.00). The delivery date/weighted average breakdown is as listed: 1-9 day delivery: 1,372 head total, 403 head sold with a weighted average price of $117.72; 1-17 day delivery 600 head total, 369 head sold with a weighted average price of $117.63; 10-17 day delivery 147 head total, with no sales; 17-30 day delivery, none. Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $0.59 lower (select) and down $0.07 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 85 total loads reported (39 loads of choice cuts, 21 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 25 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Firm pressure has quickly developed across feeder cattle futures with nearby losses holding from 60 to 80 cents per cwt. The inability to hang onto firm gains as additional trade volume stepped back into the market resembles the moves seen each trading session during the week. Increased pressure may continue to develop across the market, although volume is likely to be sluggish in all markets, allowing traders to look for end-of-the-week activity and potential market support at the end of the month.

LEAN HOGS:

Light gains are still holding in lean hog futures at midday, although trade volume remains extremely light. The strong gains seen early in the session in front-month August futures have eroded to narrow support less than 20 cents per cwt as buyers have quickly retreated to the background as they look for additional news and increased market support later in the week. There may be some stability seen in the complex, but very narrow trading ranges could allow for sluggish trade activity through the rest of the session. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell $0.53 at $81.54 per cwt with the range from $77 to $82.75 on 6,457 head reported sold. Cash prices are lower on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell $0.28 at $82.51 per cwt with the range from $82.50 to $82.75 on 3,567 head reported sold. The National Pork Plant Report reported 221 loads selling with prices gaining $0.42 per cwt. Lean hog index for 7/24 is at $90.44 down $0.69 with a projected two-day index of $89.84, down $0.60.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

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