DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The most recent upper level analysis shows a strong subtropical ridge extending from eastern New Mexico across the Southern Plains to Arkansas and southern Missouri. A weak disturbance north of this ridge position is today the focus for thunderstorms currently developing over the western Midwest. A weak monsoon flow west of the ridge is bringing moisture into the central Rockies region, which could mean thundershowers in the vicinity of Colorado Wednesday. The northern North America region features a strong trough centered north-northwest of Hudson Bay Canada with moderate to strong trough centers in southwest Alaska, along the north coast of British Columbia, over Ontario and south to east of Greenland. We also note a weak ridge over the western Canadian Prairies.

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period, although the U.S. model appears to be somewhat weaker with the ridge centers and a little stronger with the northeast U.S. trough than the European model. I favor a blend between the models today.

The mean ridge position is expected to be over the southwest U.S., the Rockies and the western Plains region during the 6-10 day period. This ridge extends northward through the Northern Plains and into the southern Canadian Prairies at times but is also flattened some at times due to short wave troughs moving by north of the mean ridge position. The mean trough position appears to be over the northeast and the middle Atlantic region of the U.S. but there is also a hint of a weak trough over the lower Mississippi River Valley, especially on the European model.

The western ridge and above normal heights will likely promote above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall from the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Plains to the Canadian Prairies during the outlook period. The northeast trough promotes somewhat cooler conditions moving through the northern and eastern Midwest region at times while areas to the west and south remain somewhat warmer. The ridge center is far enough away from the Midwest to keep the hottest conditions west of the key growing areas of the Midwest. The moisture appears to be tied up in the extreme southeast U.S. and also in the southwest Plains to the central Rockies region. This likely means a near to below normal rainfall pattern for the Midwest and northern Delta regions as well as the central Plains areas but with weak cold fronts dropping in at times there could be a few thundershowers at times, especially in the Midwest but possibly in the central Plains as well.

Joel Burgio

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...111 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...34 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...CHARLESTON SC 1.51 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period, although the US model appears to be somewhat weaker with the ridge centers and a little stronger with the northeast US trough than the European model. I favor a blend between the models today.

The mean ridge position is expected to be over the southwest US, the Rockies and the western plains region during the 6-10 day period. This ridge extends northward through the northern plains and into the southern Canadian Prairies at times but is also flattened some at times due to short wave troughs moving by north of the mean ridge position. The mean trough position appears to be over the northeast and the middle Atlantic region of the US but there is also a hint of a weak trough over the lower Miss river valley, especially on the European model.

The western ridge and above normal heights will likely promote above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall from the Pacific Northwest and the northern plains to the Canadian Prairies during the outlook period. The northeast trough promotes somewhat cooler conditions moving through the northern and eastern Midwest region at times while areas to the west and south remain somewhat warmer. The ridge center is far enough away from the Midwest to keep the hottest conditions west of the key growing areas of the Midwest. The moisture appears to be tied up in the extreme southeast US and also in the southwest plains to the central Rockies region. This likely means a near to below normal rainfall pattern for the Midwest and northern Delta regions as well as the central plains areas but with weak cold fronts dropping in at times there could be a few thundershowers at times, especially in the Midwest but possibly in the central plains as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICAL: There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Episodes of hot weather and limited rainfall is expected to continue to significantly stress crops. Major losses to spring wheat have already occurred. Pollinating corn is now being impacted with significant losses likely. The hardest hit areas are from the central Dakotas westward.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Spring Wheat/Durum Wheat): The driest area remains southern Saskatchewan which has seen below normal rainfall since early May.

Significant losses to spring wheat are expected. Drier, hotter weather appears also to include southern Alberta and Manitoba at times during this period.

Northern areas of both Saskatchewan and Alberta are doing somewhat better.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): There remains a good chance for much needed rain to occur in the driest areas of Iowa and northern Missouri within the next 24 hours. However, if this fails to produce as expected the next chance for significant rainfall is not immediately apparent. Cooler temperatures at the end of this week through early next week should favor reproductive crops in areas that have adequate or better soil moisture. Prior hot conditions over west and southwest growing areas and very wet conditions in eastern growing areas will likely impact yield potential for both corn and soybeans in some fields.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (CORN,SOYBEANS,SORGHUM): A cooling trend and a few scattered thundershowers will ease stress to reproductive and filling crops during this period... especially through north, central and southwest areas.

Today's longer range outlook continues to suggest that the ridge may remain far enough to the west to keep the hottest weather away for a while.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Favorable conditions for developing cotton at this time.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (Winter and Spring grains and oilseeds): Improved crop prospects in central and northern Ukraine. Good to excellent summer crop prospects in west Ukraine. Favorable conditions in east Ukraine, however current hot weather may be somewhat stressful for a brief period. Conditions remain favorable for summer crops in Russia.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Mostly favorable conditions at this time for key corn growing areas in Jilin and Liaoning provinces and in eastern Heilongjiang with recent rain and less hot weather. Key soybean growing areas of Heilongjiang province could use more rain, especially through central and west locations.

INDIAN MONSOON: Heavy rains in Gujarat are generally beneficial despite some flooding. Mostly favorable moisture conditions in the major soybean areas of western Madhya Pradesh. Some rain in Maharashtra however more would benefit.

Southern growing areas of India look to be drier and somewhat hotter during the next 5 to 7 days or so.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Enough rain to sustain the crop at this time of the year in West Australia. More rain is needed in southeast Australia to prevent a further decline in crop conditions. Despite below normal rainfall in the northeast, yield prospects are better than in the southeast.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.25-1.00 inch and locally heavier, in southern Minnesota, southeast South Dakota, central and northeast Nebraska.

Showers may reach to southeast Nebraska and western Iowa before sunrise. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal west and south, near to below normal northeast. Highs 95-99F in eastern Nebraska but only 78-92F in eastern Iowa.

East: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. The high temperatures yesterday were mostly 78-85F, except it was 85-90F in southern Illinois.

Forecast...

West: Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms today into tonight, possibly favoring central and southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Dry or with only lingering light showers in southeast areas early Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Temperatures average near to mostly below normal today, below normal Thursday and Friday.

Mostly dry or with only isolated light showers Saturday through Monday.

Temperatures average below normal Saturday and Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

East: Mostly dry early today. Late today or during tonight moderate to locally heavy thunderstorms will move into western areas. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with locally heavier favoring eastern and southern areas during Thursday. Mainly dry Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, below normal Thursday and Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west, near to below normal east. Rainfall near to below normal.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal. Highs yesterday were mostly 81 to 89F.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring western areas Thursday or during Friday. Temperatures average above normal in Montana and the western Dakotas today through Friday. The eastern Dakotas and northern Minnesota should see near to below normal temperatures today and Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring eastern areas Monday. Temperatures average above normal in Montana, near to above normal in the western Dakota, near to below normal in the eastern Dakotas and northern Minnesota.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal west, near to above normal east. Rainfall should average below normal west and central areas, near to below normal east.

Central/South Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Sorghum)

Summary: Mostly dry yesterday. A few light showers occurred overnight in eastern Colorado, northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal. Highs yesterday mostly 98 to 103F.

Forecast: Chance for a few scattered thundershowers today or during tonight, favoring northeast and southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado. Drier elsewhere in the region during this time. Mostly dry or with only a few showers or thundershowers in southern Kansas, northern OKlahoma and the Texas Panhandle during Thursday. Mostly dry or with only isolated showers favoring western areas Friday. Temperatures drop back into the 80s in the north and northwest areas today, through north and central areas Thursday and Friday. Highs in the 90s and low 100s elsewhere in the region today, in southern areas Thursday and in the far south locations Friday.

Chance for scattered thunderstorms favoring northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas Saturday or Saturday night. Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring west Kansas and east Colorado Sunday. Thundershowers may settle southward into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles during Monday. Drier through central and east areas Saturday through Monday. High temperatures mostly in the 80s or low 90s during this period, except that north-central Texas may see the upper 90s Saturday and Sunday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal.

Rainfall should average near to below normal, however there will be local areas that see near to above normal rainfall during this period.

Canadian Prairies (Spring Wheat, Canola)

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. The high temperatures yesterday were mostly 71 to 81 F (22-27C).

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few very light showers favoring western areas Thursday, eastern areas Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above to well above normal Thursday, near to above normal west and above to well above normal central and east Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring northern areas Sunday, southeast locations Monday. Temperatures average near normal northwest and above normal southeast Saturday, above normal west and near to above normal east Sunday, above normal Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal southwest and central areas, near to above normal elsewhere in the region. Rainfall near to below normal.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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