DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...113 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW MON...35 AT SNAKE RIVER WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...BIRMINGHAM AL 3.67 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement early in the outlook period, only fair to somewhat poor agreement late in the period. I favor today's European model as it concerns the end of the period.

The mean ridge position is expected to shift well to the west by the early part of the 6-10 day period. This allows for cooler temperatures to occur from the eastern plains through the Midwest region. It does not, however, feature much shower activity in this cool down...except possibly over the southwest plains and in the southeast US. Later in the period the ridge is shown range from the west coast to the central plains while a weak trough remains in place over the eastern US. This remains a warm to hot pattern from the western US through the western portion of the northern plains and the southwest and central portion of the Canadian Prairies. A somewhat more variable temperature pattern from the eastern plains eastward during the period.

The US model also shows the northeast Canada trough dropping south of Hudson Bay at the end of the period, forced south by a building high latitude ridge to its north. The implications of this change would be to bring much cooler weather southward to the northern Great Lakes region which might lead to more showers in the Midwest due to the greater contrast between air masses. The European model is weaker with the high latitude ridge and as a result is further north with the Hudson Bay trough. This model is preferred as it is more in keeping with recent trends. However, the northeast Canada or Greenland ridge will need to be watched.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICAL: There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Episodes of hot weather and limited rainfall is expected to continue to significantly stress crops. Major losses to spring wheat have already occurred. Pollinating corn is now being impacted with significant losses likely.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Spring Wheat/Durum Wheat): The driest area remains southern Saskatchewan which has seen below normal rainfall since early May.

Significant losses to spring wheat are expected. Drier, hotter weather appears also to expand into southern Alberta during this period. Manitoba and northern areas of both Saskatchewan and Alberta are doing somewhat better.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Limited rainfall and above normal temperatures over central and southern portions of the western Midwest has increased stress to corn and soybeans, especially pollinating corn, during recent weeks. Some crop losses can be expected. However, there is at least some chance for much needed rain to occur covering all of Iowa and including previously dry areas of the central and southeast part of the state...within the next 48 hours. If verified this might help stabilize crop prospects in the area. Mostly favorable crop conditions in the eastern and northwest Midwest.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (CORN,SOYBEANS,SORGHUM): A somewhat more variable temperature pattern through Nebraska and Kansas during the next 5 days will help to ease stress to developing crops while in south Oklahoma and north Texas is remains hotter for longer periods of time. Today's longer range outlook is a little more uncertain. The ridge may remain far enough to the west to keep the hottest weather away for a while.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Favorable conditions for developing cotton at this time.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (Winter and Spring grains and oilseeds): Improved crop prospects in central and northern Ukraine. Good to excellent summer crop prospects in west Ukraine. Favorable conditions in east Ukraine. Conditions remain favorable for summer crops in Russia.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Mostly favorable conditions at this time for key corn growing areas in Jilin and Liaoning provinces and in eastern Heilongjiang with recent rain and less hot weather. Key soybean growing areas of Heilongjiang province could use more rain, especially through central and west locations.

INDIAN MONSOON: Heavy rains in Gujarat are generally beneficial despite some flooding. Mostly favorable moisture conditions in the major soybean areas of western Madhya Pradesh. Some rain in Maharashtra however more would benefit.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Enough rain to sustain the crop at this time of the year in West Australia. More rain is needed in southeast Australia to prevent a further decline in crop conditions. Despite below normal rainfall in the northeast, yield prospects are better than in the southeast.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers over central Minnesota during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to below normal yesterday.

East: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal through north and central areas, near to above normal through the south.

Forecast...

West: Light showers linger in northeast areas early today. Showers and thundershowers develop in the northwest and north areas late today or during tonight. Showers and thundershowers move through the balance of the region during Wednesday. Drier Thursday. Rainfall potential during this period appears to be 0.50-1.50 inches and locally heavier. Coverage looks to be good.

Temperatures average above normal west and near normal east today, below normal north and near normal south Wednesday, below normal Thursday.

Mostly dry or with only isolated very light showers Friday through Sunday.

Temperatures average below normal Friday and Saturday, near to below normal Sunday. Highs Sunday ranging from the upper 80s west to the low 80s east.

East: Mostly dry today. Chance for scattered showers and thundershowers favoring north and west areas tomorrow or during tomorrow night. Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring eastern and southern areas during Thursday.

Rainfall potential appears to be 0.30-1.50 inches and locally heavier. Coverage may vary somewhat. Temperatures average below normal today, near to above normal Wednesday, below to near normal Thursday.

Mostly dry or with only a few very light showers Friday through Sunday.

Temperatures average below normal with highs ranging from the upper 70s to the low 80s.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west, near to below normal east. Rainfall near to below normal.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Dry or with only a few very light showers during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged near to well above normal. Warmest from eastern Montana to central North Dakota and in northwest and central South Dakota. Highs in these locations ranging from 93 to 98F yesterday, otherwise highs 79 to 83 east and 83 to 87 west.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers favoring east and south areas today. Mostly dry Wednesday. Dry or with only a few light showers in western areas Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal west and below normal central and east Wednesday, above normal west and near normal east Thursday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Friday through Sunday.

Temperatures average above to well above normal in Montana and the western Dakota, above normal elsewhere in the region. Highs mainly in the 80s east and mostly in the 90s west.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal west, near to above normal east. Rainfall should average below normal west and central areas, near to below normal east.

Central/South Plains (Corn, Soybeans, Sorghum)

Summary: A few thundershowers in the Texas Panhandle during the past 24 hours.

Mostly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal. Highs mostly 93 to 100 F yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers developing in northwest areas late today or during tonight. A few light showers with locally heavier during Wednesday, favoring northeast and west-central areas. A few light showers with locally heavier favoring the southwest areas during Thursday.

Temperatures average above normal today, north and west-central areas may be somewhat cooler Wednesday while the balance of the areas remains fairly hot.

Very hot readings should be mostly confined to north Texas and possibly south Oklahoma Thursday.

Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier favoring east Colorado and west Kansas Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring the Texas Panhandle and possible west Oklahoma during Sunday. The high temperatures will be mostly from the upper 80s to the low 90s, except north-central Texas may continue to see the middle to upper 90s.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal.

Rainfall should average below normal north and east, near to below normal southwest.

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba (Spring Wheat, Canola)

Summary: Light to moderate showers from northeast Alberta into northwest Saskatchewan and in Manitoba yesterday or overnight. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below normal west, above normal east. Highs mostly from the upper 50s to the low 80s F (14-29C).

Forecast: Dry or with only lingering light showers in the east today. Mostly dry Wednesday. Dry or with only a few light showers developing in western areas Thursday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Friday through Sunday.

Temperatures average near normal northwest and above to well above normal elsewhere in the region Friday, near to above normal west and well above normal east Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal southwest and central areas, near to above normal elsewhere in the region. Rainfall near to below normal.

Joel Burgio

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(SK)

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