Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A continued large difference in Midwest crop conditions, and additional dryness in the U.S. Plains and Canadian Prairies, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

WIDE MIDWEST VARIABILITY

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a mixed rainfall outlook for the Midwest. Central and southern portions of the western Midwest remain generally dry with only light to locally moderate precipitation forecast this week. This increases stress to crops. Northern and eastern Iowa and southern Minnesota should experience beneficial rainfall and more moderate temperatures. Mostly favorable crop conditions are in effect in the eastern Midwest.

VARIABLE SOUTHERN PLAINS TEMPERATURES

In the Southern Plains, a more variable temperature pattern will ease stress in northern sectors while southern sectors remain hotter for longer periods of time. A hot upper-level high-pressure ridge in the western U.S. is expected to remain strong and is in position to bring episodes of heat to much of the region during the next week.

DROUGHT REMAINS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, heat and drought continue to wither crops. Major losses to spring wheat have already occurred. Pollinating corn is now being affected with significant losses likely.

ADDITIONAL SOUTHERN PRAIRIES DRYNESS

In the Canadian Prairies, stressful dryness remains in effect over southern Saskatchewan, which has seen below-normal rainfall since early May.

Significant losses to spring wheat are expected. Drier and hotter conditions also extend into southern Alberta. Very little rain is forecast this week over this dry region.

FAVORABLE UKRAINE AND RUSSIA TREND

Ukraine and Russia crop prospects are generally favorable. This includes central and northern Ukraine, where prospects are improved following a dry trend in late spring through early summer.

MIXED NORTHEASTERN CHINA RAIN

In northeastern China, mostly favorable conditions are in effect for key corn growing areas in Jilin and Liaoning provinces and in eastern Heilongjiang with recent rain and less hot weather. Key soybean growing areas of Heilongjiang province could use more rain, especially through central and west locations.

BENEFICIAL INDIA MONSOON RAIN

In the major India crop areas, recent heavy rains in Gujarat are generally beneficial despite some flooding. Mostly favorable moisture conditions are noted in the major soybean areas of western Madhya Pradesh. Some more rain in Maharashtra, however, would benefit.

VARIABLE AUSTRALIA RAINFALL

In Australia, enough rain to sustain the wheat crop at this time of the year has been noted in Western Australia. More rain is needed in southeastern Australia to prevent a further decline in crop conditions. Despite below-normal rainfall in the northeast, yield prospects are better than in the southeast.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

(ES/)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.