DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak ridge over Alaska, a strong trough over northwest Canada, a weak trough over northeast Canada, and a weak ridge over Greenland. This is a hot pattern for western Canada, warm central, mild east. The southern branch of the jet features a weak trough in the Gulf of Alaska, a ridge in the eastern Pacific, a trough over southwest Canada, a ridge over the interior western U.S. extending as far east as the Plains, and a trough over the eastern U.S. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over the southern Rockies.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in fair-good agreement during the next 10 days. During the 6-10 day period, the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada. The polar vortex will be over north-central and northeast Canada. There will be a weak ridge over Greenland. This will be a warm-hot pattern for western and central Canada, variable in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Pacific, a ridge over the western U.S. extending eastward into the Plains, a weak trough over the eastern U.S., and a ridge in the western Atlantic.

This will be a rather dry pattern under the ridge in the Plains and western Midwest. Limited rainfall in the eastern Midwest under the weak trough.

Temperatures warmer the further west you head towards the ridge. More variable the further east you head towards the trough.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, near to above normal west, variable east days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, below normal west, near to below normal east days 6-10. The northern plains will see near to above normal temperatures.

Rainfall mostly below normal. The Southern Plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, mostly above normal days 6-10. Rainfall mostly below normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Rainfall near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...123 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW SUN...31 AT ESTCOURT STATION ME

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...HARRISBURG PA 4.71 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the 6 to 10 day outlook period today. The mean ridge position during this period will be centered over the Rockies and the southwest US but will extend eastward into the central and eastern plains and western Midwest and northward into the southern Canadian Prairies. We note a weak trough over the eastern or the northeastern US during this period. To the north we see a moderate to strong trough over the Gulf of Alaska and a second trough centered north to northeast of Hudson Bay in Canada. Weak disturbances moving out of the Gulf of Alaska trough will move over the top of the west and central North America ridge before dropping southward over the eastern US. This period should features above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall for the southern Canadian Prairies much of the plains region and the southwest Midwest area. In addition we should see near to below normal rainfall over the northern Canadian Prairies and the northern and eastern Midwest areas. Temperatures near to above normal through the northern Canadian Prairies and the northwest Midwest, near to below normal in the eastern Midwest.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICAL: There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Episodes of hot weather and limited rainfall is expected to continue to significantly stress crops. Major losses to spring wheat have already occurred. Pollinating corn is now being impacted with significant losses likely.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Spring Wheat/Durum Wheat): The driest area remains southern Saskatchewan which has seen below normal rainfall since early May.

Significant losses to spring wheat are expected. Drier, hotter weather appears also to expand into southern Alberta during this period. Manitoba and northern areas of both Saskatchewan and Alberta are doing somewhat better.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Limited rainfall and above normal temperatures over central and southern portions of the western Midwest will increase stress to corn and soybeans, especially pollinating corn. Some crop losses can be expected. Northern and eastern Iowa and southern Minnesota should experience beneficial rainfall and more moderate temperatures. Mostly favorable crop conditions in the eastern Midwest.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (CORN,SOYBEANS,SORGHUM): A somewhat more variable temperature pattern through Nebraska and Kansas during the next 5 days will help to ease stress to developing crops while in Oklahoma and north Texas is remains hotter for longer periods of time. The western ridge is expected to remain strong and is in position to bring episodes of heat to much of the region during the outlook period.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Favorable conditions for developing cotton at this time.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (Winter and Spring grains and oilseeds): Improved crop prospects in central and northern Ukraine. Good to excellent summer crop prospects in west Ukraine. Favorable conditions in east Ukraine. Conditions remain favorable for summer crops in Russia.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Mostly favorable conditions at this time for key corn growing areas in Jilin and Liaoning provinces and in eastern Heilongjiang with recent rain and less hot weather. Key soybean growing areas of Heilongjiang province could use more rain, especially through central and west locations.

INDIAN MONSOON: Heavy rains in Gujarat are generally beneficial despite some flooding. Mostly favorable moisture conditions in the major soybean areas of western Madhya Pradesh. Some rain in Maharashtra however more would benefit.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Enough rain to sustain the crop at this time of the year in West Australia. More rain is needed in southeast Australia to prevent a further decline in crop conditions. Despite below normal rainfall in the northeast, yield prospects are better than in the southeast.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms through eastern Iowa early in the weekend period. Light to moderate showers with locally heavier through northern Iowa, southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures above to near normal north, above normal south.

East: Moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers occurred during the weekend period, except in southern Michigan and southwest Illinois where showers were scattered and light. Temperatures low 80s to upper 90s Saturday, hottest west-central and south Illinois and south Indiana. Temperatures low 80s to low 90s Sunday, coolest northeast and east areas.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers developing in northwest areas later today or during tonight. Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers favoring northern and northwest areas Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Scattered light to moderate showers with locally heavier favoring central and southern Iowa during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to mostly below normal today, above normal west and near normal east Tuesday, below normal north and near normal south Wednesday.

Mostly dry or with only isolated light showers Thursday through Saturday.

Temperatures mostly low to middle 80s Thursday and Friday, low to upper 80s Saturday.

East: Mostly dry today and Tuesday. Scattered showers and thundershowers develop in Wisconsin, northern Illinois, west and north Michigan during Wednesday or Wednesday night. Temperatures average below normal today, near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with locally heavier favoring eastern and southern areas during Thursday into Thursday night. Mainly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average near normal Thursday, below normal Friday and Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west, near to below normal east. Rainfall near to below normal.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier during the weekend period. Temperatures low 80s to low 90s Saturday, upper 70s to middle 90s Sunday...warmest Montana and western Dakotas.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers favoring northeast areas today or tonight. Scattered thundershowers favoring south and southeast areas.

Tuesday. Mainly dry Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal today, near to below normal north and above normal south Tuesday, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Wednesday.

Mostly dry or with only isolated light showers Thursday through Saturday.

Temperatures average near to above normal in eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota, above to well above normal elsewhere in the region.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal west, near to above normal east. Rainfall should average below normal west and south, near to below normal northeast.

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with locally heavier occurred through Manitoba, northern Saskatchewan and northern Alberta during the weekend period. Mostly dry through southern Alberta and southern Saskatchewan during this time. Temperatures 70s and low 80s west and low 70s east Saturday, 88-93F (31-34C) Sunday in southern Alberta, southwest and central Saskatchewan. Highs upper 70s to low 80s (25-28C) elsewhere in Saskatchewan and Manitoba Sunday...cooler in northern Alberta.

Forecast: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers through northeast Alberta, northern Saskatchewan and in Manitoba today. Little elsewhere in the region today. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal west and above normal east today, below normal west and near normal east Tuesday, mostly near normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier Thursday through Saturday. Showers, if any, favoring northwest and southeast areas.

Temperatures average near to above normal northwest, above to well above normal elsewhere in the region.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal north, above to well above normal south. Rainfall near to mostly below normal.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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