DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and western Canada. The polar vortex is over central and eastern Canada extending into Greenland. This is a warm/hot pattern for western Canada, mild/warm central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Pacific extending into the northwest U.S. and a west-to-east flow with embedded disturbances across the northern U.S. and southern Canada. The balance of the U.S. is dominated by subtropical high pressure centered over the southeast Plains.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 6 days, fair-poor agreement days 7-10. We are leaning more towards the European model today.

During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough over northwest Alaska; a ridge over northeast Alaska and northwest Canada; a trough over north-central and northeast Canada; and a weak ridge over Greenland. This will be a warm/hot pattern for western and central Canada, variable in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska extending into southwest Canada; a ridge over much of the western U.S. extending as far east as the Missouri River Valley; and a trough over the eastern U.S. Disturbances will eject eastward out of a trough in the Gulf of Alaska moving through the ridge position and into the trough in the eastern U.S. This will be an active rainfall pattern for the northern and eastern Midwest along the boundary zone between the cooler weather associated with the trough and the warmer weather with the ridge. It will feature limited rainfall in the Plains and over the southwest Midwest. It will be a warm/hot pattern the further west you head in the central U.S., not as hot the further east.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal north and east, near to below normal southwest. The Northern Plains will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The Southern Plains will see mostly above normal temperatures. Rainfall mostly below normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...117 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...29 AT STANLEY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...ROCKFORD IL 3.39 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement through 6 days, fair-poor agreement days 7-10. We are leaning more towards the European model. The large scale pattern will feature a ridge over much of the western US extending as far east as the Missouri Valley. A trough will be over the eastern US. Disturbances will eject eastward out of a trough in the Gulf of Alaska moving through the ridge position and into the trough in the eastern US. This will be an active rainfall pattern for the northern and eastern Midwest along the boundary zone between the cooler weather associated with the trough and the warmer weather with the ridge. It will feature limited rainfall in the Plains and over the southwest Midwest due to the ridging along with episodes of hot weather.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICAL: There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Episodes of hot weather and limited rainfall is expected to continue to significantly stress crops. Major losses to spring wheat have already occurred. Pollinating corn is now being impacted with significant losses likely.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Spring Wheat/Durum Wheat): Much of the region remains hot and dry. The driest area remains southern Saskatchewan which has seen below normal rainfall since early May. Significant losses to spring wheat are expected.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Limited rainfall and above normal temperatures over central and southern portions of the western Midwest will increase stress to corn and soybeans, especially pollinating corn. Some crop losses can be expected. Northern Iowa and southern Minnesota should experience beneficial rainfall and more moderate temperatures. Mostly favorable crop conditions in the eastern Midwest.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Favorable conditions for developing cotton at this time.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (Winter and Spring grains and oilseeds): Improved crop prospects in central and northern Ukraine. Good to excellent summer crop prospects in west Ukraine. Favorable conditions in east Ukraine. Conditions remain favorable for summer crops in Russia.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Beneficial rains for crops in all but far western areas.

INDIAN MONSOON: Heavy rains in Gujarat are generally beneficial despite some flooding. Mostly favorable moisture conditions in the major soybean areas of western Madhya Pradesh. Some rain in Maharashtra however more would benefit.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Enough rain to sustain the crop at this time of the year in West Australia. More rain is needed in southeast Australia to prevent a further decline in crop conditions. Despite below normal rainfall in the northeast, yield prospects are better than in the southeast.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Dry conditions or just a few light showers with locally heavier. Activity favored central and eastern Iowa. Temperatures near to above normal north, above to much above normal central and south with highs of 95-100 f.

East: Scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with locally heavier. Activity favored northern and eastern areas. Temperatures above normal in Illinois with highs in the middle to upper 90s f, near to above normal in Indiana and Ohio.

Forecast...

West: Scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with locally heavier Friday. Activity will favor northern areas. Dry conditions or just a few light showers in the south Saturday. Dry weather Sunday-Monday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Tuesday. Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday-Thursday. Some moderate to heavy totals are expected in northern areas. Temperatures near to above normal north, above to much above normal central and south Friday-Saturday, variable Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to above normal north, above normal central and south Wednesday-Thursday.

East: Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday-Saturday. Light to moderate amounts with locally heavier expected. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Sunday-Monday. Dry weather Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in western areas on Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall near to above normal north and east, near to below normal southwest.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Dry conditions or just a few light showers with locally heavier.

Temperatures above to much above normal with highs in the middle 90s to low 100s over central and western areas.

Forecast: Scattered light to moderate showers and thunderstorms with locally heavier Friday. Activity will favor eastern areas. Dry weather Saturday-Sunday.

Scattered light to locally moderate showers and thunderstorms Monday. Dry weather Tuesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers with locally heavier Wednesday. Dry weather Thursday. Temperatures above to much above normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, variable Sunday, above to much above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall near to below normal.

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Scattered light showers. Temperatures near to above normal east, above to much above normal central and west.

Forecast: Scattered showers and thunderstorms over northern and eastern areas Friday. Light amounts with locally heavier are expected. Mostly dry weather Saturday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Sunday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers Monday. Dry weather Tuesday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers Wednesday. Scattered light showers with locally heavier Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near to above normal west, near to below normal east Saturday, above to much above normal west, near to above normal east Sunday, near to above normal west, above to much above normal east Monday, near to above normal west, near to below normal east Tuesday, above to much above normal west, near to above normal east Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures near to above normal. Rainfall near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino

(SK)

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