DTN Midday Grain Comments

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow futures down 50 points. The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 15 higher. Energies are mixed with crude down 0.10. Livestock trade is mostly lower. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $4.30.

CORN

Corn trade is 7 cents higher at midday and at new highs for the week. The near term heat is keeping sellers away. Some rains have visited the dry areas of the western belt with storm damage coming along with storms. Corn is in the middle of pollination this week so some heat stress is the concern. Ethanol production margins are going backwards this week with the strength in corn but margins are okay. The weekly export sales were at 466,500 metric tons of old crop, and 212,100 metric tons of new crop. Midday forecasts should provide direction into the afternoon with short covering late in the day a possibility. On the December chart support is the $3.91 20- and 50-day moving averages, then resistance is the $3.98 10-day which we have eased above overnight with the weekly high at $4.04 1/2 above that.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 12 to 15 cents higher at midday with trade continuing to find light buying as we consolidate back above $10.00. Meal is $4 to $5 higher and oil is 25 to 35 higher. Futures are adding weather premium this week due to the heat and concerns over the important soybean weather over the next six weeks. China is expected to remain active for forward pricing in the near term with weekly export sales showing up strong today at 409,600 metric tons old crop, 1.52 million new, 41,400 metric tons of old crop meal, 75,200 of new, and 25,400 oil. On the November chart support is at the 200-day moving average at $9.84 with resistance at the 10-day at $10.15 which we are solidly above at midday, with last week's highs at $10.47 as the higher resistance levels.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 6 lower to 2 higher at midday with the KC wheat taking the lead as Minneapolis wheat fades further off the early week rally. Spread trade remains soft for the winter wheat, and spring wheat continues to slowly add carry. Most world export business remains focused on the Black Sea area as harvest begins to progress there, with the dollar making new lows again today. Australia continues to see dryness, raising concerns for production in the coming months but near term supplies remain ample. The weekly export sales were improved at 669,500 metric tons. On the December Kansas City contract support is the 50-day at $5.08 with the 20-day at $5.42 resistance.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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