DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada. The polar vortex over north-central and northeast Canada extending into Greenland. This is a warm/hot pattern in western Canada, mild/warm central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and eastern pacific extending into the northwest U.S. and a west to east flow with embedded disturbances across the northern U.S. and southern Canada. The balance of the U.S. is dominated by subtropical high pressure centered over the southwest plains.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are good agreement through 6 days, fair agreement days 7-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge between Siberia and Alaska. The polar vortex up near the pole extending southward across northern Canada and into northern Greenland. This will be a warm/hot pattern for western and central Canada, variable in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska and eastern pacific extending into the northwest U.S. A flat ridge over the central U.S. and a trough along the east coast of the U.S. Significant precipitation with this pattern will mostly be confined to northern and eastern portions of the Midwest. It will be a warm pattern as you head westward towards the ridge. More variable temperatures are expected as you head eastward towards the trough.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, near to above normal west, variable east days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal north and east, near to below normal southwest. The northern plains will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal. The southern plains will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, mostly above normal days 6-10. Rainfall mostly below normal. The Delta states will near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal during the next 5 days, mostly below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...113 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW WED...29 AT BODIE STATE PARK CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...CHARLESTON SC 1.68 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in only fair agreement during the outlook period. Today's US model features a stronger central US ridge during the middle to late part of the outlook period with the jet stream well to the north until it dips across the northeast US. This suggests hot and mainly dry conditions for much of the plains and the western Midwest region. The European model is somewhat weaker with the ridge overall and also shows a short wave trough moving through the Canadian Prairies and the northern part of the plains late in the period. I favor a compromise between the models today. The best chances for scattered thundershowers under this pattern remain over the northern and eastern Midwest during the outlook period and might even favor the northeast part of the belt. We also note some chance for periods of showers in the Manitoba, eastern North Dakota and north Minnesota areas at times but these may be more moderate in nature and sometimes only light. Hot temperatures centered on the plains and sometimes into the west and south Midwest and sometimes into the Canadian Prairies.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICAL: There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Episodes of hot weather and limited rainfall is expected to continue to significantly stress crops. Major losses to spring wheat have already occurred. Pollinating corn is now being impacted with significant losses likely. The most impacted areas will likely be Montana, western and central North Dakota and South Dakota.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Spring Wheat/Durum Wheat): Dryness is of much concern in an area centered on southwest and central Saskatchewan. Showers during the next few days in the Canadian Prairies region are expected to occur mostly north and east of this area. Hotter weather may return at times during the 6-10 day period. Canola and wheat are being impacted..especially in Saskatchewan.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Limited rainfall and above normal temperatures over central and southern portions of the western Midwest this week will increase stress to corn and soybeans, especially pollinating corn. Some crop losses can be expected. Northern Iowa and southern Minnesota should experience beneficial rainfall and more moderate temperatures. Mostly adequate to surplus soil moisture for crops in the eastern Midwest. Hot temperatures will increase stress to reproductive crops over central and south Illinois and south Indiana during the next few days. Temperatures moderate for a time after that, eases stress to reproductive crops.

CENTRAL PLAINS (CORN/SOYBEAN/SORGHUM): Hot to very hot temperatures and only isolated shower activity increase stress to reproductive crops during the next few days. Scattered showers and cooler temperatures should ease stress to crops for a time early in the 6-10 day period but additional episodes of heat are likely after that.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): The region is expected to remain mostly dry or with only isolated thundershower activity during the next 5 days. Temperatures average above normal during the next few days, near to above normal during the weekend.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (Winter and Spring grains and oilseeds): East Ukraine and south Russia may see mostly above normal temperatures with little rainfall during the next 5-7 days. Soil moisture is currently adequate in the area but will be dropping due to this weather pattern and the high moisture needs of crops.

Scattered showers develop in western Ukraine growing areas, especially later in this period.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Rainfall yesterday and today is more for key corn areas than in the key soybean belt in Heilongjiang province. Prior rains should support favorable develop of crops in or near reproduction through central and east areas while stress to crops remains high in the western areas where it is drier and where it trends toward hotter temperatures.

INDIAN MONSOON: Heavy rains occurred as expected in key growing areas of Gujarat during the weekend period. This will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture in cotton and groundnut areas but also likely means severe flooding.

Rains in west Madhya Pradesh and in Maharashtra during the weekend with more rain likely later this week. This is very favorable for soybeans, cotton and sugarcane crops grown in these locations.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness is becoming of some concern through key growing areas of Australia. Showers have occurred during the past 7 days in wheat areas of western Australia, southeast South Australia, Victoria and southeast Queensland. Important wheat areas of New South Wales remained dry during this period. More rain is needed in all areas, even the locations that has showers this past 7 days, after a very dry June.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers occurred yesterday or overnight from eastern South Dakota across southern Minnesota and northeast Iowa. A few thundershowers in northern Nebraska during this time. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures reached the upper 90s in Nebraska, middle to upper 90s in west and south Iowa, low 80s to low 90s otherwise.

East: Moderate to locally heavy rain occurred through southern Wisconsin and in northern Illinois overnight. A few showers in northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal.

Highs ranging from the upper 80s to the middle 90s.

Forecast...

West: Scattered light to locally moderate showers favoring northern and eastern Iowa today. Moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers redevelop during Friday or Friday night mainly in southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa.

Dry or with only a few light to moderate showers in southern areas Saturday.

Temperatures average above normal north and well above normal central and south today and Friday, above normal Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier, favoring northern areas, Tuesday. Temperatures should be cooler during this period with highs from the upper 70s to the upper 80s.

East: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with locally heavier through northern Illinois, north and east Indiana and in Ohio today. Heavier showers and thunderstorms through Wisconsin and northern Illinois Friday. Light to moderate showers through northeast areas Friday. Scattered showers and thundershowers east, a few showers southwest, drier northwest, Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal north, above to well above normal central and south, during this period.

Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier favoring eastern and southern areas Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures turn cooler during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to well above normal west, variable east, during this period. Rainfall should average near to below normal west and south, near to above normal northeast.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Light showers with locally heavier favoring southwest North Dakota, north and east South Dakota during the past 24 hours. Temperatures near to above normal east, above normal west, yesterday.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier, favoring eastern areas, today. Light to moderate showers may occur through the eastern Dakotas and in Minnesota during Friday or Friday night. Mainly dry Saturday.

Temperatures above normal west and south and near normal northeast today, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier Monday and Tuesday, favoring northeast areas. Temperatures average mostly above normal west and mostly below normal east during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to well above normal during this period. Rainfall should average below normal west, near to below normal east.

Central Plains (Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal. High temperatures yesterday were mostly 98 to 105F.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Friday. A few light to locally moderate thundershowers may occur during Saturday, favoring north and west Kansas and east Colorado. Temperatures upper 90s to low 100s today and Friday. The north and west may be somewhat cooler Saturday while the remainder continues very hot.

Light showers with locally heavier are possible from southern Kansas southward through central Oklahoma and in the Texas Panhandle Sunday and Monday. Dry Tuesday. Temperatures should be cooler during this period. Highs in the 80s and low 90s north and central areas, 90s south.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal early in this period, above to well above normal again later. Rainfall should average near to mostly below normal.

Canadian Prairies (Canola/Spring Wheat)

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal for the morning lows, somewhat warmer during the afternoon.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers favoring western areas today.

Light to moderate showers and thundershowers through northern and southeast Saskatchewan and in Manitoba tomorrow. Showers may linger in Manitoba Saturday.

Temperatures average above normal today, near to above normal Friday and Saturday.

Light to locally moderate showers mainly in the north and east areas Sunday or during Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal west, above normal central and east.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal during this period. Rainfall is expected to average near to below normal through west and central areas, near normal through the east.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.