DTN Closing Grain Comments

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

General Comments:

September corn was up 5 1/2 cents at $3.82 1/2 with new-crop December 5 1/2 cents higher at $3.96 1/4. August soybeans finished 10 1/4 cents higher at $9.99 3/4 with new-crop November up 10 3/4 cents at $10.12 1/2. September Chicago wheat closed 3/4 cent lower at $5.03, September Kansas City fell 2 1/2 cents to $5.00 1/4, and September Minneapolis slipped 1 1/2 cents to close at $7.79. The U.S. dollar index was 0.13 higher at 94.80. August gold was $1.00 lower at $1,240.90 while September silver was $0.017 higher and September copper lost $0.0220. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 45 points to 21,619. August crude oil gained $0.83 to $47.23. The August distillates (heating oil) contract was $0.0433 higher, August RBOB gasoline rallied $0.0403, and August natural gas lost $0.013.

Corn:

December corn posted a high of $4.02 1/2 within the first hour of Wednesday's session, then spent most of the rest of the day giving it back. The contract fell as far as $3.93 late before staging a rally. It's interesting to note that this is similar to a pattern seen in corn since the July 4 holiday, despite the fact little change has occurred on weather maps. Speaking of which, afternoon models remain hot and dry for most of the U.S. Midwest, likely providing support for corn during the overnight session.

Soybeans:

Rather than acting as a follower, the soybean market held its own as corn struggled for most of the session. And while November beans continue to show a classic 3-wave downtrend pattern on its short-term downtrend daily chart, the recent rally (Wave B or second wave) has led to a test of minor technical resistance at $10.15 1/2. Another technical aspect of the recent rally is that Wednesday saw trade volume decrease again, usually a bearish indicator. If Nov beans follow through on technical patterns, breaking trendline support later this week, it would suggest a possible filling of the gap on the daily chart between $9.63 and $9.58 from June 30 to July 3.

Wheat:

Wheat market bulls are likely to be disappointed by Wednesday's close. Following its recent script, Minneapolis spring wheat saw an early 13-cent rally erased by increased commercial selling. This fits the pattern of a normal short-supply spike rally, with commercial selling likely tied to the early stages of harvest. Winter wheat also came under pressure, most notably the 2 1/2-cent loss in Kansas City HRW.

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @DarinNewsom

(CZ)

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