USDA Reports Preview

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

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Often, USDA's July round of Crop Production and Supply and Demand reports gets lost in the shuffle between the June 30 Quarterly Stocks and Acreage data and the August round of "first field survey" numbers. But as you can see with a quick look at DTN's preview table, there are a lot of numbers set for release in July. So much so that regardless of what you're looking for, you're likely to find something in the reports to make you smile.

USDA will release its latest Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports at 11 a.m. CDT Wednesday.

If history is any indicator, most of you are anxiously awaiting USDA's new-crop yield and production guesses. While largely meaningless in the big picture, particularly ahead of the August hubbub, these numbers for corn and soybeans are immensely popular. Think of it as the Kardashians of this particular report. Anyway, while national average yield for corn is expected to decrease by almost 1 bushel per acre in this report, total production is expected to increase slightly as USDA accounts for its larger number released on June 30 (larger than its March 31 Prospective Plantings figure). Soybeans, on the other hand, are expected to see an ever-so-slight yield decrease, resulting in a small production decrease. While it's unlikely USDA takes much of the weather into account when making its yield guess, therein lies the potential for a surprise.

Others are looking forward to the wheat production estimates. Most likely, these are the same folks who watch car races just for the wrecks. The biggest wreck in the market in 2017 -- as far as production goes to this point -- is likely hard red spring wheat. The average pre-report estimate came in at 414 million bushels, well off last year's 534 mb. Given that there is no previous guess to base judgement off of, though, USDA has an empty canvas to sketch out its later picture. The nuts and bolts -- potential acreage and yield guesses -- will also be watched closely. Meanwhile, winter wheat is expected to see its production number climb a bit. Why? Because it's winter wheat.

Some of you think globally, and for you there will be many production and ending stocks numbers to gorge on. And while production numbers aren't expected to see many revisions, most notably Brazil and Argentina corn and soybeans, world ending stocks could see some minor adjustments. Embedded deep in the bowels of the WASDE report, one will find all the little pieces that make up wheat's ending stocks figure. There is a growing opinion to completely discount China's numbers, possibly providing a different perspective on the global wheat situation from the standard "wheat ending stocks are bearish." If so, minor revisions in Russian, Ukrainian and European Union numbers could actually cause ripple effects in the market.

As for me, I'll be watching the domestic ending stocks estimates, particularly old crop. That's right, I said old crop. Why (again)? Because we are getting to the primetime, with everyone focused on Keeping Up With the Kardashians (see above), for USDA to start "adjusting" its old-crop demand and supply numbers. That's right, demand AND supply. Don't think that just because we are long removed from this past January's "final" set of production numbers that old-crop supplies can't change. Revisions can be made in imports and even beginning stocks, meaning adjustments going back even a marketing year prior.

Also, I'm interested in seeing if USDA does start adjusting old-crop demand, and if so, does it fit with DTN analysis done following the June 30 Quarterly Stocks report? And for those who just absolutely have to have some sort of tie-in to new crop, remember that old-crop ending stocks are new-crop beginning stocks.

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Editor's note: Join DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom at 12 p.m. CDT Wednesday for an in-depth look at the latest USDA Supply and Demand and Crop Production estimates. Register now at: http://bit.ly/…

U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2016-2017
	July	Avg	High	Low	June	2015-16
Corn		2,336	2,395	2,275	2,295	1,737
Soybeans		434	470	382	450	197
Grain sorghum		56	60	52	53	37
Wheat		1,176	1,184	1,142	1,161	976
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2017-2018
	July	Avg	High	Low	June
Corn		2,131	2,444	1,823	2,110
Soybeans		483	588	300	495
Grain sorghum		30	33	27	29
Wheat		879	957	757	924
U.S. CROP PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2017-2018
	July	Avg	High	Low	June	2016-17
Corn		14,074	14,253	13,595	14,065	15,148
Soybeans		4,241	4,277	4,078	4,255	4,307
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2017-2018
	July	Avg	High	Low	June	2016-17
Corn		168.9	170.7	165.0	170.7	174.6
Soybeans		47.8	48.0	46.0	48.0	52.1
WHEAT PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2017-2018
	July	Avg	High	Low	June	2016-17
All Wheat		1,746	1,834	1,634	1,824	2,310
All Winter Wheat		1,256	1,281	1,200	1,250	1,672
HRW		747	775	693	743	1,082
SRW		303	332	295	298	345
White		211	222	199	209	245
Spring		414	490	305		534
Durum		76	90	64		104
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2016-2017
	July	Avg	High	Low	June	2015-16
Corn		225.70	228.00	223.00	224.60	212.45
Soybeans		93.20	94.00	92.50	93.20	77.13
Wheat		255.20	257.00	249.00	256.40	242.57
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2017-18
	July	Avg	High	Low	June
Corn		195.20	198.80	190.00	194.30
Soybeans		92.20	93.00	90.30	92.20
Wheat		256.60	262.00	250.00	261.20
WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons) 2016-2017
	July	Avg.	High	Low	June	2015-16
Corn
Brazil corn		97.5	99.0	97.0	97.0	67.0
Argentina corn		40.0	41.0	39.0	40.0	29.0
Soybeans
Brazil soybeans		114.0	115.0	113.3	114.0	96.5
Argentina soybeans		57.7	58.0	57.0	57.8	56.8

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Follow Darin Newsom on Twitter @DarinNewsom

(AG/SK)

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