DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn closed up 2 cents in the September contract and up 2 cents in the December. Soybeans closed up 15 1/4 cents in the August and up 16 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 4 cents in the September Chicago, down 3 1/2 cents in the September Kansas City, and down 2 1/4 cents in the September Minneapolis.

The September U.S. dollar index is up 0.22 at 95.79. August gold is down $14 at $1,209.30 while September silver is down $0.53 and September copper is down 0.0115. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 95 at 21,415. August crude oil is down $1.20 at $44.32. August heating oil is down $0.0318, August RBOB gasoline is down $0.0264, and August natural gas is down $0.027.

For the week:

September corn closed up 11 1/2 cents and December closed up 12 3/4 cents. August soybeans were up 54 cents while the November was up 60 3/4 cents. September Chicago wheat was up 9 cents, September Kansas City wheat was up 13 1/2 cents, and September Minneapolis wheat was down 5 cents.

Corn:

December corn closed up 2 cents Friday, supported by hot temperatures in the seven-day forecast with the best rain chances staying close to the eastern Midwest. Adding to the intrigue, there is a chance that this week's hotter temperatures in the western Midwest could migrate eastward in the six- to 10-day period. It certainly bears watching, as it would put more of the pollinating Corn Belt at risk if it proved out. Even if the heat stays to the west, it is worth noting that crop conditions in the western Midwest are declining the longer the rain stays away. Early Friday, USDA said last week's export sales of corn hit a marketing-year low of 5.5 million bushels, but shipments totaled 43.7 million bushels, putting total shipments up 34% with just two months left in 2016-17. With FOB corn prices 20 cents a bushel cheaper in Brazil than at the U.S. Gulf and corn supplies being shipped out of South America, U.S. sales are likely to be down for a while, but overall demand has been good. So far, December corn continues to resist its bearish seasonal tendency for this time of year and is challenging the upper end of its sideways range while crop conditions remain a concern in 2017. Nine hundred sixty-seven July corn contracts were delivered early Friday. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.46 Thursday, priced 45 cents below the September contract and near its highest price in a year. In outside markets, the September U.S. dollar index is up 0.22 after the U.S. Labor Department said non-farm payrolls were up 222,000 in June, more than expected. In spite of the increased number of jobs, the U.S. unemployment rate inched up, from 4.3% to 4.4% in June.

Soybeans:

November soybeans closed up 16 1/4 cents, the ninth consecutive session higher and reaching their highest close in four months with help from a hot and dry forecast for the western Plains and western Midwest while the eastern Midwest continues to be more protected by better chances for rain and moderate temperatures. As mentioned above, the chance of hotter temperatures moving farther east in the six- to 10-day period is a bullish threat that could either lead to even higher prices next week or a bearish bust if the heat fails to materialize. Early Friday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 13.4 million and 10.2 million bushels, a neutral-to-bearish combination for the week that still has total shipments up 20% in 2016-17 from a year ago. FOB soybean prices are staying roughly even between the U.S. and Brazil so the U.S. should keep seeing more export business come through. November soybean prices have come a long way since last week's USDA reports, and so far, the trend remains up with hot and dry summer weather supporting prices. Among July contracts, 829 soybeans, 195 soybean meal and 65 soybean oil were delivered early Friday. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $9.20 Thursday, priced 66 cents below the August contract and at a new three-month high.

Wheat:

September K.C. wheat finished down 3 1/2 cents, staying down from Wednesday's new one-year higher as Friday presented another favorable day of mostly dry weather for the winter wheat harvest. Much of winter wheat's recent rally has been riding the coattails of this year's drought problems for spring wheat, and the forecast remains hot and dry for the northwestern Plains. However, while this year's winter wheat harvest will be down from a year ago, harvest reports have mentioned pretty good yields, considering this year's battle with mosaic virus and numerous weather challenges. On Wednesday, July 12, USDA's wheat production estimate will be broken down by class and analysts are expecting 1.26 billion bushels of winter wheat production and 414 million bushels of other spring wheat production, reported Dow Jones. Technically, all three wheats remain in an uptrend, but appear to be losing their bullish enthusiasm. Among July contracts, 168 Chicago wheat and 350 K.C. wheat were delivered early Friday. DTN's National SRW index closed at $5.07 Thursday, priced 32 cents below the September contract and down from its highest price in nearly two years. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.76, down from its highest price in two years.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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