DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a strong blocking ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada. A trough over north-central and northeast Canada and a weak ridge over northeast Greenland. This is a mild/cool pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern pacific. A ridge in the southwest U.S. A trough over south-central Canada and the north-central U.S. A ridge over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic and a trough over southeast Canada.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 7 days, fair agreement days 8-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a blocking ridge over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a trough to the north of Greenland. This will be a variable temperature pattern for western Canada, mild/cool central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A weak trough off the west coast of the U.S. A ridge over the interior western U.S. A trough in the central and eastern U.S. and a ridge in the western atlantic. This will be an active rainfall pattern under the trough aloft possibly extending as far west as the eastern plains. Temperatures will be variable, warmer out ahead of disturbances, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to above normal. The northern plains will see near to below normal temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal west, near to above normal east. The Delta states will see near to below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...123 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...25 AT WEST YELLOWSTONE GATEWAY MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...MONTGOMERY AL 2.52 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period, except that the US model has somewhat more ridging over the southern Rockies and the European model features somewhat more ridging just off the west coast. I favor the US model today.

The mean maps at 8 to 10 days continue to feature a trough position somewhere between northeast plains and the central Great Lakes region and over Canada between Manitoba and western Quebec. We note above normal heights over northwest and southwest Canada and the Canadian Maritimes. This is a cool pattern for central and much of eastern Canada and the north-central and Midwest regions of the US. Somewhat warmer in northwest and far west Canada and in extreme east Canada and the northeast US. We see the jet stream dipping southward to the northern portion of the central plains and the southern portion of the Midwest. There remains a moderate subtropical ridge center over the southern Rockies and some Atlantic ridging located over or just off the east coast. This remains a hot pattern in the southwest US which may, at times, reach into the central and southern plains crop belt. It is also a warm and humid pattern for the southeast US region...at times. Rainfall in the southern US is somewhat harder to call. I am leaning towards more rain chances for the Delta and the southeast US and possibly the southeast plains region and less rain chances for the southwest plains and western Texas during this period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICAL: Post tropical depression Cindy, with 20 mph winds, was located about

25 miles southeast of Little Rock, Arkansas early this morning and tracking towards the north-northeast at 14 mph. Rain associated with Cindy was moving through eastern Arkansas and into northwest Mississippi and west Tennessee. The heaviest rain and thunderstorms associated with Cindy and moisture brought in with the broader circulation has been in south Louisiana, south and east Mississippi and especially hard hit Alabama.

DELTA: Rain today with a flash flood watch in effect due to post tropical depression Cindy. This will maintain adequate to surplus moisture for crops and is favorable, except for areas of local flooding.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Rain and thunderstorms favoring north and southeast areas during the past 24 hours and southeast areas again today. Drier after that. No significant hot weather is in sight. A mostly favorable weather pattern for developing crops, except in areas of local flooding.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Dryness remains of concern in key crop areas of North Dakota, especially for reproductive wheat. Rainfall chances increase somewhat in eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota later in the 5 day and early in the 6-10 day period before decreasing again after that. No significant hot weather, except for briefly hot weather in Montana, at times.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Corn/Sorghum): No significant concerns for mature wheat and the wheat harvest at this time. A cooler period will favor developing corn and sorghum in the region through early next week.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Episodes of scattered rains during the next 5 days will help improve soil moisture for dryland fields. Cooler temperatures are only somewhat favorable as hot temperatures are preferred, just not the extreme heat that has been in the region recently. Very cool readings, relative to normal, last 2-3 days beginning Saturday.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Spring Wheat): Wet weather and conditions may delay the final planting effort for crop areas of northern and central Alberta and northwest Saskatchewan. Scattered showers and cooler conditions favor developing crops elsewhere in the region. However, rainfall levels are still averaging well below normal during the past 30 and 60 day periods through southwest and south-central Saskatchewan. More rain is needed to bring these values closer to normal.

NORTHEAST CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): A turn to drier weather and hot temperatures this weekend and early next week will bear watching. A favorable weather pattern for any remaining planting of crops. However, soil moisture will diminish and stress to crops will increase under a drier and hotter weather pattern at this time.

INDIAN MONSOON: The Monsoon remains in a weaker state and is now running 10 or more days behind normal. The leading edge of the Monsoon flow is at the southern tip of Gujarat, through eastern Madhya Pradesh and western Bihar. This leaves key cotton, soybean and groundnuts areas outside of the Monsoon flow.

Hot temperatures and little rainfall likely means delayed planting progress.

The computer models suggest a building Monsoon is possible next week which could include better rains reaching key growing areas of Uttar Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat..among others. If varified this would allow for improved planting progress for Kharif crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.10-0.70 inch and locally heavier, favoring eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, eastern and southern Iowa, southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri. Temperatures averaged below normal north, above normal south.

East: Moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms occurred through Wisconsin, northwest Illinois and northern Michigan during the past 24 hours.

Light to moderate showers with locally heavier near the Ohio river. Only a few light showers elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

West: Dry or with only a lingering light rain or drizzle in southern areas early today. Mostly dry or with only a few brief very light showers tomorrow and Sunday. Temperatures average below to well below normal during this period.

Mostly dry Monday. Chance for light showers with locally heavier, favoring north and west areas, Tuesday or Tuesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms during Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

East: Rain or showers and thundershowers through southeast to east-central areas today or during tonight. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring northern areas during the weekend period. Temperatures average near to below normal today, below to well below normal during the weekend.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers favoring southwest areas Monday.

Mostly dry Tuesday. Showers may develop in the north and northwest areas Wednesday or Wednesday night, continued dry elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures average below to well below normal Monday, below normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal during this period. Rainfall near to above normal.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures average below normal west, near to below normal east.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers in northeast areas today or during Saturday. Dry Sunday. Temperatures average below to well below normal today and Saturday, near normal west and below normal east Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers Tuesday and Wednesday will tend to favor eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota.

Temperatures average above to well above normal west and near to below normal east Monday, mostly above normal Tuesday, near to below normal west and above normal east Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal during this period. Rainfall should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Dry or with only a few light showers during the past 24 hours, mainly occurring in northwest and southwest locations. Temperatures averaged above normal north, central and southwest areas, near to below normal southeast.

Highs yesterday ranged from 89 to 105F, hottest north-central and southwest Kansas, southeast Colorado and the Texas Panhandle. Coolest southeast Kansas, east Oklahoma and east Texas.

Forecast: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with locally heavier possible in east and south Oklahoma and north-central Texas today. Light showers in south Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle during this time. Dry or with only light showers favoring the Texas Panhandle and south Colorado Saturday. Light to moderate showers southwest and a few light showers otherwise Sunday. Temperatures averaged below normal through north and central areas and near normal south today, below normal during the weekend.

A few light showers with locally heavier favoring north and southwest areas during Monday. A few late day or nighttime thundershowers favoring central Nebraska and central Kansas Tuesday. Scattered thundershowers may occur in southeast Nebraska and eastern Kansas during Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal Monday, warmer to somewhat hotter Tuesday and Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal west and south areas, somewhat more variable northeast locations. Rainfall should average near to below normal west and south, near to above normal east-central and northeast areas.

Canadian Prairies (Canola/Spring Wheat)

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Showers, mostly 0.28 inch (7 mm) or less, through central and eastern areas during the past 24 hours. Drier through the west during this time.

Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Scattered light showers through eastern areas today or during tonight, drier elsewhere in the region during this time. Mostly dry during the weekend. Temperatures average below normal today and Saturday, near to above normal west and below normal east Sunday.

Light showers with locally heavier favoring northwest and southeast areas Monday or during Tuesday. A few light showers during Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal Monday, below normal west and above normal east Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to mostly below normal. Rainfall near to above normal northwest, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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