Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Mostly favorable conditions for Midwest crops, Tropical Storm Cindy bringing heavy rains and possible flooding to the Gulf Coast states and Delta, and limited rains for the Northern Plains are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

FAVORABLE MIDWEST CONDITIONS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for scattered rains favoring north and southeast areas of the Midwest during the next five days. No significant hot weather is in sight. This is a mostly favorable weather pattern for developing crops.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AIMS FOR LOUISIANA

At 4 a.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 91.9 West. Cindy is moving toward the northwest near 8 miles per hour, and this motion is expected to continue Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward the north is expected tonight and early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected Wednesday, but slight weakening is forecast to begin Thursday.

HEAVY RAINS FOR DELTA

Tropical storm Cindy will have weakened by the time it reaches the key growing areas of the Delta. However, the dissipating system will still lead to heavy rains and potential flooding. Winds should not be much of a factor, unless thunderstorms develop.

LIMITED RAIN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Dryness remains a concern in key crop areas of North Dakota, especially for reproductive wheat. Rainfall chances remain fairly limited during the next 10 days. No significant hot weather is expected, which helps ease moisture requirements of crops.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

The Southern Plains will see mostly favorable conditions for mature winter wheat and the harvest. Episodes of hot weather will stress corn and sorghum at times, but cooler intervals eases stress at times.

LIMITED RAIN FOR WEST TEXAS

Dryland fields would benefit from increased rain chances and less extreme heat in west Texas. The forecast does include a chance for beneficial rains to reach the area this weekend or early next week, but there is some uncertainty in this outlook.

IMPROVED CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Rainfall that has occurred in the Canadian Prairies during the past week has improved conditions for developing crops in central and east areas following the prior extended drier spell. Cooler weather may slow development somewhat.

SHOWERS HELP NORTHEAST CHINA

Showers and cooler weather developed during the weekend and continued during Monday in northeast China. This will improve conditions for planting and early development of crops. However, more rain is still needed through some western growing areas.

INDIAN MONSOON DELAYED

The leading edge of the monsoon has moved little during the past seven days, and it is now running about 10 days behind normal development in India. This leaves key growing areas of west-central and northwest India outside of the Monsoon flow pattern. However, a trough dipping down from the north has led to scattered thundershowers in east Pakistan and north India this week. This favors these crop areas while key soybean, groundnut and cotton areas in west-central India remain between the monsoon activity to the south and scattered showers associated with the trough in the north.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(BAS)

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