DTN Early Word Grains

By Darin Newsom
DTN Senior Analyst

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:

December corn was 4 cents lower, November soybeans were 4 cents higher, and July Kansas City (HRW) wheat was 1 cent higher.

CME Globex Recap:

Sellers hit corn contracts as grain markets opened Sunday evening, with early activity driven by weather maps showing rain accumulations across the U.S. Midwest the last seven days. However, within minutes soybeans had moved back above unchanged and corn was off its lows. The balance of the overnight session saw soybeans extend gains despite a lower Dalian market. Outside commodities were also mostly higher, though gold continued to struggle.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 24.38 points (0.1%) higher at 21,384.28, the NASDAQ Composite lost 13.74 points (0.2%) to 6,161.76, and the S&P 500 added 0.69 point to 2,433.15 Friday. DJIA futures were 64 points higher early Monday morning. Asian markets closed higher with Japan's Nikkei up 124.49 points (0.6%), Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining 298.06 points (1.2%), and China's Shanghai Composite rallying 21.21 points (0.7%). European markets were trading higher with London's FTSE 100 up 36.62 points (0.5%), Germany's DAX gaining 89.22 points (0.7%), and France's CAC 40 adding 43.84 points (0.8%). The euro was 0.0003 lower at 1.1194 while the U.S. dollar index was 0.01 lower at 97.15. September 30-year T-Bonds were 8/32 higher at 155'28 while August gold fell $3.60 to $1,252.90. Crude oil was $0.12 higher at $44.86 while Brent crude gained $0.12 to $47.49. China's Dalian soybean futures were lower while Malaysian palm oil futures were mixed overnight.

	BULL		BEAR
1)	Weekly export inspections are expected to show continued bullish marketing year totals for corn.	1)	Early morning weather models continue to call for generally favorable conditions across the U.S. Midwest, possibly pressuring new-crop corn.
2)	Soybeans weekly export inspections, and total marketing year inspections, are expected to be bullish Monday morning.	2)	As with new-crop corn, November soybeans could see selling develop tied to weather forecasts.
3)	Wheat markets are all in uptrends on their respective weekly charts.	3)	Rallies in winter wheat could be met by increased harvest related commercial selling.

The weekly Newsom on the Market column can be found on subscription sites only. On DTN Pro it is in News/Town Hall and on MyDTN in News/Columns.

MORE COMMODITY-SPECIFIC COMMENTS

CORN After spiking to a 9-cent loss seconds after its Sunday evening open, Dec corn fought back to sit near its session high early Monday morning. Though still down about 4 cents, the contract was showing at least some of the selling interest tied to weekend weather had subsided. While last week's maps could come into play again at the start of the regular daily session, traders will quickly turn their attention to forecasts. DTN's Sunday evening edition called for generally favorable conditions across the U.S. Midwest the next 6 to 10 days. Once weather forecasts move front and center, look for corn to stabilize. Monday finishes off, as it usually does this time of year, with NASS' weekly crop condition numbers that should set the tone for the next overnight session.

SOYBEANS Soybeans posted a solid rally of about 10 cents off initial Sunday evening lows through early Monday morning. New-crop November led the way on what looked to be light commercial buying interest, with the November-to-January futures spread showing a slightly weaker carry. As discussed in DTN's Technically Speaking blog this past weekend, both old-crop and new-crop soybeans remain in uptrends on their weekly charts. Next resistance for new-crop November is up at $9.64 1/4. As with new-crop corn, look for weather to set the tone for Nov beans over the course of Monday's session, leading up to Monday afternoon's weekly crop condition update from NASS. As for old-crop, traders will keep an eye on weekly export inspections set for release late mid-morning Monday. Initial technical resistance for the July contract is up at $9.57 1/2.

WHEAT Winter wheat contracts were higher early Monday morning despite harvest progress over this past weekend. Anecdotal yield results as harvest chews its way north across Kansas are mixed, with one farmer reporting an insurance-totaled field estimated at 5 bushels per acre with another field a couple miles away coming in at 74 bpa. The Kansas City July contract is within pennies of last week's high of $4.76 1/2, with a move through this mark a possible catalyst to drive the contract to its next target near $4.90. Chicago July is still sitting below initial technical resistance at $4.72 3/4 (for more information, see this past weekend's Technically Speaking blog on DTN). Minneapolis spring wheat continued to rally overnight, though attention needs to be paid to the weakening inverse in the September-to-December futures spread. If this continues, and spills over into the December-to-March, it would signal commercial traders are losing some of their bullishness toward new-crop.

DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$3.46	$0.05	-$0.38	Jul	$0.003
Soybeans:	$8.75	$0.05	-$0.64	Jul	$0.004
SRW Wheat:	$4.42	$0.12	-$0.23	Jul	$0.007
HRW Wheat:	$4.07	$0.10	-$0.66	Jul	$0.021
HRS Wheat:	$6.01	$0.11	-$0.42	Jul	$0.006

Darin Newsom can be reached at darin.newsom@dtn.com

Darin can be followed throughout the day at www.twitter.com\DarinNewsom

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