Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Scattered rain for the Midwest, and very little follow-up precipitation in the Northern Plains, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

MIDWEST RAIN DIFFERENTIAL

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a gradual return to more moderate temperatures and increasing shower activity to offer improved conditions for developing Midwest crops after recent heat and dryness. Coverage of rain, however, is uncertain.

HOT AND DRY FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, dry and hot conditions favor wheat ripening and harvest. This pattern also means more extensive use of irrigation for row crops.

MINIMAL NORTHERN PLAINS RAIN BENEFIT

Rainfall in the Northern Plains that has occurred this week will help ease concerns in key spring wheat and corn areas; however, drought easing will be minimal. Very little additional rain is indicated during the next week to 10 days. Crop stress will likely continue, notably in spring wheat, which has its lowest crop ratings in almost 30 years.

MIDWEEK PRAIRIES RAIN

Moderate to locally heavy rain continues in the Canadian Prairies, with the Wednesday focus in eastern areas. Rain is needed from south and east Saskatchewan through Manitoba due to below- or well-below-normal rainfall during the past 60 days. Rain may still be considered unfavorable in central and north Alberta and northwest Saskatchewan, as it delays fieldwork and promotes wet conditions leading to disease risk.

LIMITED UKRAINE RAINFALL

Ukraine and Russia crop areas have only light rain indicated for this week. Dryness easing in north-central Ukraine will be minimal.

MIDWEEK DRYNESS IN NORTHEAST CHINA

Hot and dry conditions remain in effect over northeastern China for the next several days. This favors planting progress, but is unfavorable for germination and early development of recently planted crops. The outlook calls for increasing shower activity and cooler conditions later this weekend through early next week. If verified, this will be a beneficial rain event.

VARIABLE CENTRAL CHINA RAIN

In central China, monsoon rain progress appears to have halted in the Yangtze River valley. This could promote hotter and drier conditions for the North China Plain. This would favor mature winter crops and planting progress for spring crops, but it would be unfavorable for earlier-planted crops.

DRYNESS CONCERN IN AUSTRALIA

Australia crop areas are going through an extensive dry period, which is unfavorable for developing crops. USDA's weekly crop weather bulletin notes that since May 1, dryness is most pronounced in Western Australia, South

Australia, northern New South Wales, and southern Queensland. During the past six weeks, rainfall has averaged from 25% to 60% of normal in these regions. This dry trend is unfavorable for early-season wheat, barley, and canola development.

INDIAN MONSOON STALLS

Latest analysis of the India monsoon shows that the monsoon front has remained stationary during the past few days. This is several days or more behind normal for this date. Satellite imagery depicts a somewhat less organized monsoon compared to the end of last week. It will probably take several days or more for the monsoon to become better organized and resume its seasonal migration farther inland.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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