Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A drier pattern for the Midwest this week, and hotter and drier conditions forming in China, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

BRIEF DRIER MIDWEST TREND

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a brief drier period through midweek. The cool and wet trend during May has affected planting and forced some replanting. This pattern is also unfavorable for crop development. The most notable issues are in the eastern Midwest.

SHOWERS AND COOL IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, below-normal temperatures and periods of showers are unfavorable for maturing winter wheat. Increasing disease issues along with deteriorating crop quality and lower protein can be expected.

COOL IN NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, a cool pattern is in place, with some patchy frost expected over the next several nights. Warmer weather would benefit development of corn and soybeans. Conditions are favorable for developing spring wheat.

MORE SOUTHEAST RAIN

In the Delta and Southeast, moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for developing Delta crops while leading to some delay in final planting efforts and promoting local flooding. These heavy rains have also formed in the southern Delta and the Southeast. This rain was needed after a dry early spring, but the excessive nature of the rain has likely caused flooding.

FAVORABLE DRIER PRAIRIES TREND

Mainly dry conditions during the weekend and early this week in the western Canadian Prairies should help improve conditions for the harvest of last year's crop and planting of this year's crops in central and north Alberta and northern Saskatchewan. Rains return to these areas later in the week. The southern and eastern areas could use more rain to support favorable development of recently planted crops.

WARMTH IN EUROPE

Across Europe, above- to well-above-normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions were noted over the past five days. This combination is favorable for planting crops and promoting development of winter grains and oilseeds where soil moisture was adequate. The area should see increasing shower activity and less very warm weather during the next 10 days.

RUSSIA AND UKRAINE SHOWERS

A variable temperature pattern with episodes of scattered showers will favor winter and spring grains and oilseeds in Russia and Ukraine. Reports suggest that dryness is still of some concern through north-central Ukraine. This area should see showers at times, but will probably need more rain to end concerns.

WARM AND DRY IN NORTHEAST CHINA

Key growing areas of northeast China continued warm and drier during the weekend. This favors planting progress, but may be unfavorable in areas with less-than-adequate soil moisture.

CENTRAL CHINA HEAT

The North China Plain was very hot and mostly dry during the weekend. This trend is favorable for maturing wheat and rapeseed along with early harvest, and allow for good planting progress for spring crops. However, this pattern is unfavorable for germination and early development of the spring-planted crops.

RECORD SOUTH AFRICA CORN CROP

South Africa's government estimates this year's corn crop at a new record of 15.6 million metric tons. That projection is more than 7% higher than the projection in February. It is more than double the 7.7-million ton crop size of last season, when South Africa had its worst drought in 100 years. Above-average rain during this season allowed production to reach the record levels.

SCATTERED NORTHEAST CHINA RAIN

Periodic showers are noted for the northeastern China crop areas over the next week. Temperatures will be variable. Soil moisture has recently improved after good rains hit the area but more rain will be needed to maintain this improvement.

MONSOON ARRIVES IN SOUTH INDIA

The leading edge of the India monsoon is located north of Sri Lanka and over the southern tip of India and along the western border of Myanmar. This is mostly near to normal in some cases a little behind. Monsoon rains are expected to hit the southern state of Kerala during Tuesday, slightly ahead of the usual date of June 1.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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