Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Heavy rain still in the eastern Midwest forecast and developing dry conditions in the Northern Plains are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

CONTINUED EASTERN MIDWEST RAIN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for additional rain of moderate to locally heavy intensity in the southern and eastern Midwest during the next seven days, ending the month of May and beginning the month of June. This rain will maintain wet soils and river valley flooding, with unfavorable row-crop conditions and concern of prevented planting. Western Midwest areas will have lighter precipitation and more favorable crop conditions.

SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOWERS

Across the Southern Plains, scattered showers will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for reproductive to filling wheat, but may be unfavorable for maturing wheat and could promote more disease pressure. Rain is also unfavorable for wheat harvest in Texas.

DRIER IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A drier pattern is forming in the Northern Plains, which will bear watching for possible adverse impact on spring wheat. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions across the northern half of South Dakota through the southern half of North Dakota and into eastern Montana. Less than one-half inch (12 millimeters) of rain is forecast for this area during the next two weeks.

NEW DELTA RAIN

In the Delta, moderate-to-heavy rain through the holiday weekend will maintain adequate-to-surplus soil moisture for developing crops while leading to some delay in final planting efforts and promoting local flooding. Heavy to very heavy rains have recently been reported in the southern Delta across into Alabama and parts of Georgia. This rain was needed after drought beginning last fall, but the excessive nature of the rain has likely caused flooding.

BRIEF DRIER WESTERN PRAIRIES TREND

In the western Canadian Prairies, a somewhat drier trend is in store during the weekend and early next week. However, longer-range charts are again showing a set-up that may return rain to the central and north Alberta region and the northern Saskatchewan area late next week and next weekend. This is an area that has featured above- to well-above-normal precipitation during the past 60 days and longer. It is unlikely that this break in the weather pattern would be enough to ease concerns in the region.

VARIABLE UKRAINE PRECIPITATION

Russia and Ukraine will have variable temperatures and precipitation. The dry areas of north-central Ukraine will also see some activity.

RECORD SOUTH AFRICA CORN CROP

South Africa's government estimates this year's corn crop at a new record of 15.6 million metric tons. That projection is more than 7% higher than the projection in February. It is more than double the 7.7-million-ton crop size of last season, when South Africa had its worst drought in 100 years. Above-average rain during this season allowed for production to reach the record levels.

SCATTERED NORTHEAST CHINA RAIN

Periodic showers are noted for the northeastern China crop areas over the next week. Temperatures will be variable. Soil moisture has recently improved after good rains hit the area but more rain will be needed to maintain this improvement.

LIMITED INDIA MONSOON SHOWERS

The leading edge of the India monsoon is located over southern Sri Lanka and covering the southeast Bay of Bengal. This is only slightly behind normal. The forecast suggests that a disturbance may form in the central Bay of Bengal and head toward Myanmar. This would likely mean that after a few more days, the activity in southern India would diminish as the disturbance would pull the moisture in the Bay of Bengal toward Myanmar and away from the India subcontinent.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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