DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...113 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...22 AT GOTHIC CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...GREENSBORO NC 2.19 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement early in the outlook period, fair to good agreement later in the period.

There is expected to be a weak ridge located over the western US and extending northward into the western Canadian Prairies during the first few days of the outlook period. A moderate to somewhat strong trough will cover the region from the eastern Canadian Prairies and the northeast Plains across the Midwest and Great Lakes region at days 6 and 7 and then it begins to move east and lift north by next Wednesday or so. The US model shows a weak trough moving across the Canadian Prairies at the end of the period, a second weak trough over the Midwest and another moving across the southern plains. The European model is more interested in the weak trough moving over the Midwest and less interested in the Canadian Prairies trough during this period. The Euro does see the southern trough but it is slower with it as it still over the southern Rockies at day ten. This remains an active weather pattern outside of the northern plains region, the southern and the eastern Canadian Prairies areas.

These locations should be drier. Temperatures trend to below normal early in the period but may be somewhat warmer late in the period...especially over the northern plains and the Canadian Prairies.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): The wettest weather shifts into the south and east during the next 5 days. Cooler temperatures during the short range period.

Delays to seasonal field work remain likely. Slower development of wheat and early planted spring grains. Later in the period it does not look as cool or wet, though still near to above normal rainfall.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): No significant delays to the final planting effort during the next 5-7 days. Cooler temperatures will again slow germination and early development of earlier planting crops for a time.

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat/Corn/Sorghum): Episodes of scattered showers will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for reproductive to filling wheat but may be unfavorable for maturing wheat and could promote more disease pressure. Delays to planting may occur at times but in general a favorable weather pattern for corn and sorghum development.

DELTA/SOUTHEAST (CORN, SOYBEAN, COTTON, PEANUTS): Episodes of moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Delta will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for developing crops while leading to some delay in final planting efforts and promoting local flooding. Heavy to very heavy rains have recently been reported in the southern Delta across into Alabama and parts of Georgia.

This rain was needed after a dry early spring period but the excessive nature of the rain has likely caused flooding.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Conditions favor planting progress but rainfall is needed in dryland fields to support favorable early development. Hot temperatures lasting about 3 days beginning tomorrow will favor development of earlier planting cotton. Cooler weather returns after that. Showers may occur late in the 10 day period.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (Canola/Spring Wheat): Rain today and Thursday through Alberta and Saskatchewan is expected to cause delays to seasonal fieldwork.

This includes harvesting of last seasons crops and planting this years crops.

Problem areas include north and central Alberta, west and north Saskatchewan.

Showers elsewhere in the region will favor development of recently planted crops while causing only minor planting delays.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/SPRING GRAINS/CORN/SUNFLOWER): A variable temperature pattern with episodes of scattered showers will favor winter and spring grains and oilseeds.

WEST EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT AND RAPESEED, CORN AND SUNFLOWER): A weak upper level ridge is expected to move over western Europe this week. This will promote a period of much warmer temperatures. This should be favorable after recent rains in the region, at least for awhile. The ridge does not appear to hang around long enough to be overly concerning at this time.

CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): A variable temperature pattern continues for the key northeast China crop belt. Sometimes fairly hot, other times more seasonal in nature. Periodic showers will favor planting and early development. Soil moisture has recently improved after good rains hit the area but more rain will be needed to maintain this improvement, especially during periods of hot temperatures.

INDIAN MONSOON: Satellite pictures indicate increasing shower activity through the northern Indian Ocean...including the southern Bay of Bengal and portions of the southern Arabian Sea. Showers have been increasing in extreme south India recently. Normal onset date is around this time for Sri Lanka and through Tamil Nadu India by June 1st. The Indian Met department shows the leading edge of the Monsoon just south and east of Sri Lanka, a few days behind normal development.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Light rain and drizzle, mostly 0.25 inch or less, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal yesterday, mainly due to well below normal daytime highs.

East: Showers and rain, 0.20-0.60 inch and locally heavier, through Illinois and Wisconsin during the past 24 hours. A few light showers elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures averaged near normal through southern locations, below normal central and north.

Forecast...

West: Dry or with only a little lingering drizzle early today through eastern areas. Mostly dry tomorrow. Dry or with only a few light showers developing late Friday or Friday night. Temperatures average below to well below normal today, slightly below normal Thursday, near normal Friday.

Light to locally moderate showers favoring southern and eastern areas during Saturday. Light or very light showers favoring northern and eastern areas Sunday. Showers may linger in the east, drier west, during Monday. Temperatures average near to mostly below normal.

East: Moderate to locally heavy rain or showers and thundershowers, 0.30-1.50 inches and locally heavier, through much of Indiana, all of Ohio and southeast Michigan today or during tonight. Light rain lingers in the east, dry west, during Thursday. Light to moderate showers, 0.25-0.75 inch, redevelops over southern Illinois and southern Indiana during Friday. Temperatures average below normal today and Thursday, near normal Friday.

Moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms during Saturday may favor southern and eastern areas. Dry or with only a few light showers Sunday.

Showers redevelop Monday, favoring northern and eastern locations. Temperatures average near to above normal Saturday but it should turn somewhat cooler Sunday and Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal during this period. Rainfall should average near to above normal.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal through central Montana, below normal elsewhere in the region.

Forecast: A few light showers later today or during tonight favoring north-central and northwest locations. A few light showers favoring eastern and southern areas Thursday. Mainly dry Friday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, below normal Thursday and Friday.

Dry or with only a few light showers favoring central and eastern areas Saturday through Monday. Temperatures average below normal Saturday and Sunday, near normal west and below normal east Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal early in this period, above normal late in the period. Rainfall should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Light to locally moderate showers lingered yesterday in eastern Texas, very light showers in eastern Kansas and Oklahoma. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring northern areas during Thursday. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers through northwest and north areas during Friday or Friday night. Temperatures average below normal today and early Thursday, near normal later Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Light to moderate showers and thundershowers favoring central and southeast areas during Saturday. Mainly dry Sunday. Dry or with only a few light showers Monday. Temperatures average near to below normal through north and central areas during this period. The south will see above normal temperatures Saturday before turning cooler Sunday and Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal during this period. Rainfall should average near to above normal.

Canadian Prairies (Canola/Spring Wheat)

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Summary: Mostly dry yesterday. Overnight rain has developed through northern and west-central Alberta...including the Peace river area and locations near and southwest of Edmonton. Temperatures averaged above normal through west and central areas, somewhat more variable in the east.

Forecast: Rain or showers and thunderstorms, 0.50-1.00 inch (13-25 mm) and locally heavier, through Alberta, western and northern Saskatchewan Wednesday into Thursday. Scattered showers, 0.12-0.75 inch (3-19 mm) and locally heavier, elsewhere in the region during this time. Light rain or drizzle may linger in the eastern areas Friday. Temperatures turn cooler through western areas early in this period while the east turns warmer. The east turns cooler again late in the period.

Chance for passing showers favoring central and east areas Saturday, eastern areas again Sunday. Dry Monday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and near to below normal east during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal in the west, near to above normal east, during this period. Rainfall should average near to above normal through northwest to north-central areas, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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