Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Continued variability in Midwest conditions, and more rain prospects for the Southern Plains, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

MIXED MIDWEST PATTERN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for mixed conditions across the Midwest. Drier and warmer conditions in the northwestern Midwest are favorable for planting and early crop growth. A wetter and cooler pattern in the east and south will continue to slow planting progress. The 10-day forecast has warmer and drier conditions for the eastern and southern Midwest; this will be closely watched.

MORE SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, showers and warm weather continue. This pattern is generally favorable to winter wheat. Wet weather may continue to slow planting progress in Kansas.

DRY WEEKEND FOR DELTA

In the Delta, drier and warmer conditions favor seasonal fieldwork. Favorable soil moisture for crop development is well established.

MILD FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, favorable conditions remain in effect for fieldwork and planting. Shower chances increase during the coming weekend.

WARMTH BENEFITS PRAIRIES

In the Canadian Prairies, USDA'S weekly weather and crop bulletin notes that very warm conditions have allowed topsoils to warm and dry, favoring planting activity. The past week featured only light showers, generally less than one-half inch (12 millimeters). A very-wet trend in April has brought on a slower-than-normal beginning to planting. Planting typically runs through the end of May. If planting lasts into June, the risk of summer heat damage or loss due to an early autumn freeze is heightened.

SCATTERED BRAZIL RAIN

Across Brazil, central crop areas continue with light showers forecast. The southern crop regions will see moderate to heavy rain. The overall pattern is beneficial for the second-crop corn (safrinha).

FAVORABLE TREND IN ARGENTINA

In central Argentina, dry conditions favor harvest progress. Soil moisture and temperatures favor wheat development.

BENEFICIAL EUROPE RAIN

Across Europe, the past week featured useful and timely precipitation. USDA's weekly weather and crop bulletin notes that much-needed rain of 5 to 40 mm, and more locally (up to almost 2 inches) returned to southeastern England, France, and northwestern Spain, improving soil moisture for reproductive wheat and rapeseed after a dry start to the spring. Farther east, widespread showers (2 to 30 mm or more than 1 inch, with locally more) sustained good to excellent prospects for vegetative to reproductive winter grains and oilseeds from Germany and Poland into the Balkans. The wet weather also sustained favorable soil moisture for recently-planted corn, soybeans, and sunflowers, but slowed late sowing efforts.

CONTINUED UKRAINE DRYNESS

According to USDA's weekly weather and crop bulletin, despite overall good to excellent conditions for winter crops, a lack of rain in north-central Ukraine is intensifying short-term drought (25 to 50% of normal rainfall over the past 60 days), leaving soil moisture in short supply for corn planting and emergence.

FAVORABLE INDIA PROSPECTS

India's government is reportedly expecting a record food grains crop in 2017 of more than 273 million metric tons. Wheat and rice production projections have been raised. Beneficial weather is the reason for this increase.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

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