DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 1/2 cent in the July contract and up 3/4 cent in the December. Soybeans were up 9 1/4 cents in the July contract and up 6 1/4 cents in the November. Wheat closed down 4 cents in the July Chicago contract, down 5 1/2 cents in the July Kansas City and down 3 3/4 cents in the July Minneapolis contract.

The June U.S. dollar index is up 0.49 at 99.43. June gold is down $11.30 at $1,215.80 while July silver is down 15 cents and July copper is up $0.0040. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 25 at 20,988. June crude oil is down $0.43 at $46.00. June heating oil is down $0.0099 while June RBOB gasoline is down $0.0239 and June natural gas is up $0.060.

Corn:

July corn closed up a half-cent Tuesday, a cautious gain ahead of Wednesday's WASDE report, due out at 11 a.m. CDT. Late Monday, USDA showed corn planting behind its five-year average pace once again at 47% complete and 15% emerged. Wednesday's rain is expected to stretch from Colorado to the Mid-Atlantic States, adding to problems for already soaked fields from Missouri to Indiana. Dow Jones's survey of analysts does not expect much change in USDA's estimate of old-crop ending corn stocks, but it is expecting a lower estimate of 2.11 billion bushels for 2017-18 along with a lower estimate of world ending corn stocks. The larger concern for corn prices currently however, is not early new-crop estimates, but May weather as it pertains to getting this crop planted. July corn continues to trade within a sideways range with support at $3.61 3/4. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.27 Monday, priced 39 cents below the July contract and still in a sideways range. There were 712 contracts of May corn delivered early Tuesday. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is up 0.49, rebounding a second day higher with widespread talk of a rate hike coming in June.

Soybeans:

July soybeans closed up 9 1/4 cents Tuesday, helped a return of commercial buying in old-crop and new-crop soybean meal. Demand continues to a play an important role in the ability of July soybean prices to hold above the April low of $9.41 1/4 and Wednesday's new estimates from USDA are not likely to change that. Dow Jones' survey of analysts expects a slight drop in USDA's estimate of old-crop ending soybean stocks and a higher estimate of 572 million bushels of ending stocks for 2017-18. USDA's estimate of world ending soybean stocks is expected to stay roughly unchanged in 2017-18, which shows some acknowledgement of increased demand, given the record plantings expected here in the U.S. Late Monday, USDA said 14% of soybeans were planted, down from the five-year average of 19% but still have time to catch up, if weather will allow. Technically, July soybeans remain in a downtrend, but that could change with a close above $9.80. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.92 Monday, priced 72 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in nearly five weeks. Among May contracts, there were four deliveries of soybean meal and 96 deliveries in soybean oil early Tuesday.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat closed down 4 cents Tuesday while traders continue to try to figure out just how much of the winter wheat crop will be able to recover from the late-April snowstorm. Late Monday, USDA said 50% of winter wheat was headed and 15% of the crop was rated poor to very poor, up from 13% a week ago. USDA numbers probably still don't reflect all the problems uncovered on last week's crop tour, but if we accept them at face value, DTN's Winter Wheat Condition Index dropped from 134 to 129 and remains well above the five-year average of 97. USDA also said 54% of spring wheat was planted and 21% was emerged, below its five-year average paces of 60% and 29% respectively. Wednesday's WASDE report is expected to provide a lower estimate of world ending wheat stocks for 2017-18, but the estimate of U.S. wheat production will not be accurate, based on survey work that began before the late-April storm. Technically, July Chicago wheat remains in an uptrend after last week's storm-related surge, but prices are having a hard time finding support since then with lots of unanswered questions still open after last week's HRW wheat crop tour. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.92 Monday, priced 42 cents below the July contract and down from its highest price in seven weeks. DTN's National HRW index closed at $3.58, down from its highest price in 10 months. Among May contracts, there was 13 deliveries of Chicago wheat and one delivery of Kansas City wheat early Tuesday.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow Todd Hultman on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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