DTN Before The Bell Grain Comments

Morning CME Globex Update:

July corn was down 2 cents, July soybeans were unchanged, and July Chicago wheat was up 2 1/4 cents. July corn and soybeans were steady to lower early Friday with at least three days of rain headed for most of the Corn Belt. July Chicago wheat is a little higher, helped by commercial buying and flooding concerns in the southern Midwest.

Other Markets:

Dow Jones:	Higher
U.S. Dollar Index:	Lower
Gold:	Higher
Crude Oil:	Higher

Corn:

July corn was down 2 cents early Friday with rain falling around Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri and cold temperatures staying in the northern Plains. The next few days will bring a broad coverage of rain over the Corn Belt with especially heavy amounts from eastern Oklahoma through Illinois. In South America, DTN's seven-day forecast is mostly dry which will be good for corn harvest progress in Argentina and should not be a problem for Brazil's second corn crop. July corn has kept a low profile in the month of April and remains in a sideway range with prices holding above support at $3.61 3/4. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.28 Thursday, priced 41 cents below the July contract and within a sideways range. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is down 0.10 after the U.S. Commerce Department reported U.S. real GDP up 1.9% in the first quarter from a year ago, less than expected.

Soybeans:

July soybeans were steady early, holding pat for a fourth consecutive week with support from commercial buying. If we just look at supplies, as most do, the fundamental outlook for soybeans seems overwhelmingly bearish with a record high U.S. planting expected later this spring and Argentina's soybean harvest doing better now that their weather has turned drier. What continues to be not well understood is world demand and the recent emergence of commercial net longs in soybeans suggest that demand is better than expected. That does not necessarily mean that soybeans are going to trade higher this year, but it does suggest that the support of April's low could hold for a while -- at least until more is known about this year's U.S. crop. July soybeans remain in a downtrend with prices currently holding above support at $9.41 1/4. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.79 Thursday, priced 79 cents below the July contract and up from its lowest prices in a year.

Wheat:

July Chicago wheat was up 2 1/4 cents early, continuing to show a modest bounce higher this week with a threat that heavy rains the next few days will inflict damage on wheat crops from eastern Oklahoma into Illinois. Wheat prices are also getting some benefit from cold weather in the northern U.S. and Canada and from dry weather in western Europe. Wheat crops are considered in good condition in eastern Europe, Ukraine, southern Russia, and China. The Wheat Quality Council's Kansas Wheat tour begins next week and DTN's Crops Technology Editor Pam Smith will be there, giving us direct reports on crop conditions. Technically, July Chicago wheat remains in a downtrend, but with weather in play and noncommercials heavily net short, short-covering rallies are possible. DTN's National SRW index closed at $3.79 Thursday, priced 53 cents below the July contract and up from its lowest price in 2017.

Todd Hultmancan be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

FollowTodd on Twitter @ToddHultman1

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