DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada. A trough over north-central and northeast Canada extending into western Greenland and a blocking ridge over Iceland. This is a cool/cold pattern for most of Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific. A broad trough over much of the U.S. and a ridge in the western atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 6 days, fair-poor agreement days 7-10. We are leaning towards the U.S. model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a weak ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada. A weak trough over north-central Canada. A weak ridge over northeast Canada and a strong blocking ridge over Greenland. This will be a variable temperature pattern for western and central Canada, cool/cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the western Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern pacific. A trough over the interior western U.S. A weak ridge over the central U.S. and a trough along the east coast of the U.S. This pattern will allow for a period of drier weather in the central U.S. during the 6-10 day period along with milder temperature due to the ridge aloft.

This pattern will feature near to below normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 7 days, milder days 8-10. Rainfall above normal during the next 7 days, near to below normal days 8-10. The southern plains will see below to much below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The northern plains will see near to below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Rainfall above normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...97 AT FORT STOCKTON TX AND PRESIDIO TX LOW THU...14 AT 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF TAYLOR ND

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...COLUMBUS GA 2.04 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in only fair agreement today, in some areas poor agreement. I favor a little more of today's US model but there is uncertainty in this outlook.

The major problem area is in what to do with the trough as it moves from the eastern Midwest into the eastern US during the early and middle part of the period. The US model deepens this trough leading to a strong cut off upper level low over the middle Atlantic region and in the northeast. The European model splits the trough with the northern portion continuing east across the Great Lakes and New England and the southern part deepening and drifting over the Alabama and Georgia area. The US model suggests a slower warm up over the eastern Midwest and heavy rain potential for the northeast to the middle Atlantic region. The European model implies a better chance for more rain in the southeast US region. The European model would also be slow to warm up in the eastern Midwest but not as cool looking as the US model suggests.

The models both shows normal to above normal heights aloft with a warmer or much warmer trend for the middle of the country later in the period. The US model is more progressive with the next trough in the western US and as a result it is further east with a weaker looking ridge, placing it over the western Midwest. The US model also has a potential for rain moving into the northern plains region on the back side of this ridge but this highly uncertain at this point. The European model with it's slower western trough and lingering troughs near the east coast shows a stronger build up in the central ridge but is somewhat further west with the feature...placing it over the plains and the northwest Midwest at 8-10 days. This model suggests dry and very warm weather for the north-central US at the time.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat): Recent and forecasted rains improve and maintain soil moisture for winter wheat in the region. Colder temperatures through early next week need to be watched, especially as it concerns heading wheat. Wet, cold weather likely keeps planting progress for corn slow. Longer range suggests a warmer, drier outlook which would favor planting of spring crops, if verified.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Episodes of heavy rain and turn to colder temperatures will likely lead to delays for planting corn and soybeans during the next 5 to

7 days. Longer range shows some promise of drier and warmer weather but this is a somewhat uncertain outlook.

DELTA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Mostly favorable conditions for winter wheat and recently planted corn, except in areas of locally flooding caused by excessive rain potential and in local fields hit by severe weather. Field work and planting delays for soybeans will likely be increasing as it turns very wet and stormy.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Wet conditions and cold temperatures may further slow spring planting over North Dakota and northern Minnesota during the next 3-5 days. After that a promise of more favorable weather for the region but this may not last very long, especially if the US model is correct.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES: Cold temperatures and above normal spring precipitation will likely delay any thoughts of spring field work over northern Alberta and northwest Saskatchewan. The region is expected to see only a 0.25 inch or less of melted during the next 7 days which should help improve conditions, somewhat. Temperatures may moderate to more seasonal levels for a time next week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER): A more favorable weather pattern for maturing summer crops and harvesting at this time. The region should be drier and much warmer at the end of this week and early next week.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Recent rainfall will favor development of second crop corn in Parana and MGDS. Heavy rains in southern Brazil this week may be somewhat unfavorable for the final harvest effort but reports suggest that most of the soybeans in the area have already been harvested. A drier trend should help improve conditions at wet fields during the next 5-7 days.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/SPRING GRAINS/CORN): A turn to much warmer and mostly dry weather is likely during the next 5 to 7 days or longer. This should help improve conditions for winter wheat and early planted spring grains. It could also encourage additional spring planting in south and east Ukraine and South Russia... including corn planting.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry yesterday. Showers and some rain has moved into southwest areas overnight. Temperatures averaged well below normal yesterday.

East: Light or very light showers favoring northwest and east areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal west and near to above normal east.

Forecast...

West: Light to locally moderate rain favoring southwest and central areas today. Rain or showers and thundershowers during the weekend period. Rainfall likely averaging 0.50-1.50 inches during the period with locally heavier possible. Temperatures average well below normal during this period.

Light rain or showers linger Monday, especially north and east areas. Drier Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal, well above normal early in the period and slightly below normal late in the period.

East: Showers and thunderstorms favoring southern areas later today or during tonight. Light showers elsewhere in the region during this time. Moderate to very heavy rain and thunderstorms, possibly containing severe weather, during the weekend period. The heaviest rainfall potential appears to be for Illinois, west and north Indiana and Michigan. Rainfall averaging 1.00-3.00 inches is expected. Heavier is possible. The highest risk for severe weather appears to be in southern areas. Temperatures average near to below normal today, below normal north and above normal south during the weekend.

Light to locally moderate showers favoring north and east areas Monday.

Drier Tuesday. Dry or with only light rain redeveloping near the Ohio river during Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal, well below normal northern locations.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west, below to near normal east. Rainfall should average near to below normal, except possibly near to above normal southeast and extreme east areas.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Mostly dry or with only a little light precipitation in extreme western areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation in the west during Sunday. Temperatures average below to well below normal today and Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Chance for a light precipitation favoring north-central and east areas during Monday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation in the east Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal west, near to below normal east.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal, possibly well above normal for a time. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Rain and thundershowers, 0.25-0.75 inch and locally heavier, through eastern Colorado during the past 24 hours. Rainfall averaging 0.10-0.50 inch, through northern and southeast Kansas and southern Nebraska during this time.

Sprinkles and a few light showers elsewhere in the region. Strong winds yesterday, especially western areas. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal north, near to above normal south.

Forecast: Showers linger in the north and east early today. Later today or during tonight showers and thundershowers will redevelop in south Kansas and Oklahoma. Rain, showers and thundershowers during Saturday and Saturday night.

Rain or showers linger through central and northern areas Sunday, drier south Sunday. Rainfall potential appears to be 0.50-2.00 inches and locally heavier, except possibly somewhat less in the northwest corner of the belt and over the southern part of the Texas Panhandle. Temperatures average below normal north and west and above normal southeast today, below to much below normal during the weekend.

Mostly dry Monday. Showers and a few thundershowers redevelop Tuesday. Drier again Wednesday. Temperatures average below to well below normal Monday, below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to well above normal during this period. Rainfall should average near to below normal.

Brazil (Soybeans/Corn)

Mato Grosso Do Sul, Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers possible in MGDS Sunday. Temperatures turn warmer during this period.

Scattered showers may occur in MGDS Monday and Tuesday. Drier elsewhere in the region during this time. Mostly dry during Wednesday. Temperatures near to mostly above normal.

Argentina (Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower)

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal in west and north areas, near normal in the southeast.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this time. Dry or with only isolated light showers during Wednesday.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.