DTN Midday Grain Comments

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are higher with the Dow futures 20 points higher. The interest rate products are mostly higher. The dollar index is 40 points higher. Energies are mixed with crude up $0.20. Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold down 2.50.

CORN

Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday following the lead of the wheat market after early weakness. The weather forecast is expected to bring heavy rains into the middle of the belt this week and colder than normal temperatures which should slow planting progress. The weekly ethanol report showed production down 0.6% on the week, stocks were 1.02% higher, and gasoline demand was 0.18% lower. Ethanol futures are a penny lower at midday which is limiting upside in corn. Corn basis has remained steady with a firm tone this week; producers continue to want to see higher prices. The July chart support is at the 10, 20, and 200-day moving averages at $3.69-$3.70, with resistance the 50-day at $3.74.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade continuing to grind around the nearby range established the last few trading days. Meal is $1 to $2 lower and oil is 35 to 45 points higher. Wet weather moving forward should be viewed as negative for beans since it could add acreage coming forward with corn gaining sharply yesterday. South America should continue active post-harvest movement in the near term. Basis has remained fairly steady in the near term. July soybean chart support is the 20-day moving average at $9.60, with resistance the upper Bollinger band at $9.76 then the 50-day at $10.00.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is 3 to 7 cents higher at midday with Minneapolis wheat leading again at midday with cold temps slowing progress in the north. Further short covering could accelerate with another positive finish today. Heavy rains could raise disease concerns in much of the winter wheat belt with a cold snap for Kansas coming. The dollar is just above the 99 level on the index despite the overnight strength. On the July Kansas City contract support is at the new low at $4.15 with resistance at the $4.27 10-day which we have moved above at midday, with the 20-day at $4.31 area.

David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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