DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada. The polar vortex over central and eastern Canada and a ridge over Greenland. This is a mild pattern in far western Canada, cool/cold elsewhere. The southern branch of the jet features a flat ridge in the eastern pacific. A trough over the interior western U.S. A weak ridge over the northeast U.S. and a trough along the coast of the southeast U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 8 days, fair-poor agreement days 9-10. We are leaning towards the US model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada. The polar vortex over central and eastern Canada. And a ridge over Greenland. This will be a cool/cold pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the Rockies, Plains and Midwest and a ridge along and off the east coast of the U.S. This will be an active rainfall pattern for much of the central U.S. due to the upper level trough over the region and the ridging to the east. It will be a variable temperature pattern. Milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to above normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The northern plains will see below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. Rainfall below normal during the next 7 days, near to below normal days 8-10. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...103 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW MON...23 AT LAKE YELLOWSTONE WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...RALEIGH DURHAM NC 2.69 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement early in the period, only fair agreement late in the period. I favor a blend between the models but with a slight bias towards the European model.

The models both feature a significant upper level trough over the western Midwest with a surface storm moving northward through Wisconsin and into Ontario Canada on Sunday (day one of the 6-10 day period). The models also both show a secondary upper level trough over the Rockies with a somewhat weaker surface low over the west-central to southwest plains region by Tuesday. The US model is somewhat further north initially with the surface low and tracks it through the northwest Midwest and northeast plains regions before turning it northeast as it moves into Canada later in the period. The European model tracks this new low through southeast Iowa on it's way to the central Great Lakes region and southeast Ontario. This track is preferred as it is more in line with recent patterns. This keeps the northern plains and the Canadian Prairies on the drier and cooler to colder side of the pattern while in the central and southern plains and Midwest regions more rain or showers can be expected.

The troughs also extend far enough to the south to tap on Gulf Moisture as they swing through the southeast plains and Delta regions. This may mean fairly wet conditions not only during the 5 day period but possibly during the 6-10 day period as well. In the southeast we will see periods with scattered showers as weakening cold fronts move through the area but it is not certain whether this will be to the level of near normal rainfall for much of the area.

Temperatures trend towards mostly above normal in the southeast US.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat): Recent and forecasted rains improve and maintain soil moisture for winter wheat in the region. A turn to colder temperatures may need to be watched, especially as it concerns heading wheat. Wet, colder weather likely keeps planting progress for corn slow.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Episodes of rain and a variable temperature pattern will likely lead to delays for planting corn and soybeans, especially in the west where it is also colder. Central areas may see increasing delays during the period has heavier rainfall develops.

DELTA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Favorable conditions for winter wheat and recently planted corn. Field work and planting delays for soybeans will likely be increasing as it turns wetter.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Wet conditions and cold temperatures may further slow spring planting over North Dakota and northern Minnesota.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES: I see no significant rain or snow events during the next 7 days, although light precipitation may occur at times and temperatures will be somewhat colder at times. Colder temperatures and somewhat wet conditions may slow early fieldwork.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER): A more favorable weather pattern for maturing summer crops and harvesting at this time. Light to moderate showers may impact Cordoba and Santa Fe today and early Wednesday but after that an extended drier period is likely.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Recent and forecasted rainfall will favor development of second crop corn in Parana and MGDS. Heavy rains in southern Brazil this week may be somewhat unfavorable for the final harvest effort but reports suggest that most of the soybeans in the area have already been harvested.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/SPRING GRAINS/CORN): Colder temperatures that occurred in the region since late last week will slow development of winter grains, germination and development of early planted spring grains.

Recent rain in South and east Ukraine and South Russia will maintain favorable soil moisture for winter grains and any early planted spring grains. Dryness is still a concern for a portion of central Ukraine but the area of concern is shrinking. A warming trend with less rainfall this week for most areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry yesterday. Overnight a little light rain and drizzle has been reported in northeast and west areas. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged above normal, especially for the afternoon highs.

Forecast...

West: Light to locally moderate showers favoring northern and western areas today or during tonight. Showers and some rain favoring southeast Iowa, east and south Missouri during Wednesday or Wednesday night. Drier Thursday.

Temperatures average near to below normal west and above normal east today, below normal Wednesday, well below normal Thursday.

Chance for a little light rain or drizzle during Friday. Moderate to locally heavy rain or showers and thundershowers favoring southern and eastern areas Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures average below normal.

East: Mostly dry today. Chance for showers in western areas tonight. Rain or showers and thundershowers west and showers east Wednesday or Wednesday night and early Thursday. Drier later Thursday. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall may occur in Wisconsin and Illinois with this system, light to locally moderate otherwise. Temperatures average above to well above normal today and Wednesday, cooler during Thursday.

Scattered showers with thundershowers also possible in southeast areas Friday. Rain, showers and thunderstorms develop in the west and north and move through southeast areas Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall potential appears to be moderate or heavy. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to below to near normal west, variable east. Rainfall should average near to above normal.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Light to moderate rain occurred in northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota yesterday into last night. Very light precipitation elsewhere in the north-central to northeast areas, drier otherwise.

Temperatures averaged near normal in the west and southeast areas, below normal elsewhere in the region.

Forecast: Chance for light precipitation in the south and extreme east areas today or during tonight. Drier Wednesday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation in extreme western areas Thursday. Temperatures average well below normal during this period.

Mostly dry or with only a little light precipitation during Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average well below normal Friday, below to well below normal Saturday, near normal west and below normal east Sunday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to mostly below normal. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Mostly dry yesterday. Overnight light rain or showers developed in northeast Colorado, southwest and central Nebraska and a little of north-central and northeast Kansas. Temperatures averaged near to above normal, well above normal through west-central and southwest areas.

Forecast: Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers favoring eastern and southern areas today or during Wednesday. Showers may redevelop through central and northern areas during Thursday. Rainfall potential with these showers is mostly light to moderate but heavy showers may occur in local areas, especially in east-central locations. Temperatures average near to below normal north and west-central areas and above normal elsewhere in the region today, below normal Wednesday and Thursday.

Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers Friday into Saturday. Light rain or showers may linger in the north and east areas during Sunday. Temperatures may be somewhat warmer Friday before turning cooler or much cooler again Saturday and Sunday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary from well below to above normal during this period. Rainfall should average near to above normal.

Brazil (Soybeans/Corn)

Mato Grosso Do Sul, Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul

Summary: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with locally heavier through RGDS during the past 24 hours. Mostly dry elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures averaged below normal in RGDS, above normal in Parana and MGDS.

Forecast: Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms south, light to moderate with locally heavier north, today or during tonight and Wednesday. Mainly dry south during Wednesday and all areas Thursday. Temperatures average below or well below normal in the southern areas during this period. The central and north will continue to see above normal temperatures today but should turn cooler tomorrow or during Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures trend warmer during this period.

Argentina (Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower)

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa

Summary: A few light showers were reported in the southwest areas during the past 24 hours. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

Forecast: Light to locally moderate showers with isolated heavier today into tonight, favoring central and northeast locations. Mainly dry tomorrow and during Thursday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures turn warmer again during this period, much warmer late in the period.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

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