DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada. The polar vortex over central and eastern Canada and a ridge over Greenland. This is a mild pattern in far western Canada, cool/cold elsewhere. The southern branch of the jet features a low amplitude flow with embedded disturbances over the eastern pacific and the western and northern U.S. A trough is located over the southeast U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 5 days, fair-poor agreement days 6-10. We are leaning towards the intermediate run of the U.S. model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada. The polar vortex over central and eastern Canada and a ridge over Greenland. This will be a cool/cold pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the Rockies, Plains and Midwest and a ridge along and off the east coast of the U.S. This will be an active rainfall pattern for much of the central U.S. due to the upper level trough over the region and the ridging to the east. It will be a variable temperature pattern. Milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to above normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal. The northern plains will see near to below normal temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...103 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW SUN...16 AT ANTERO RESERVOIR CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL AT 7PM YESTERDAY...W PALM BEACH FL 3.46 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in mostly fair to sometimes good agreement during the outlook period. I favor a blend between the models today.

The mean maps at 8-10 days show a moderate to strong ridge, for the time of year, located in the western Atlantic and extending to the east coast states.

We see a mean southern branch trough located in the north-central to the central US and a mean northern branch trough centered over or just northeast of Hudson Bay Canada. The European model features a near full latitude ridge in the eastern Pacific extending well into the Gulf of Alaska. The US model shows the ridge smaller and just off the US west coast while showing a weak trough in the Gulf of Alaska.

The ridge east and trough central suggests a continued active weather pattern centered on the central/south plains region and the Midwest. The north-central trough position suggests a cooler period for the central US areas which may be very cool if this trough can also link up with the northern branch trough locationed near Hudson bay. The European model with it's stronger pacific ridge and slightly further to the south northern trough is more in line with this colder outlook for the end of the period. The Atlantic ridge keeps the east coast states somewhat warmer.

The Delta is in line for more rain during the outlook period while the southeast is drier and it is especially drier in Florida. The northern plains and the Canadian Prairies looks to be drier and cooler to colder than normal.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

CENTRAL/SOUTH PLAINS (Wheat): Recent and forecasted rains improve and maintain soil moisture for winter wheat in the plains. Recent warm temperatures will promote more rapid development of the crop. A cooler trend will slow growth rates somewhat, for a time. Cooler, wet weather will continue to slow corn planting.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Episodes of rain and a variable temperature pattern will delay and disrupt planting progress.

DELTA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Favorable conditions for winter wheat.

Field work and planting delays will likely be increasing.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Wet conditions and colder temperatures may further slow spring planting through the region.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES: I see no significant rain or snow events during the next 7 days, although light precipitation may occur at times and temperatures will be somewhat colder at times. Colder temperatures and somewhat wet conditions may slow early fieldwork.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER): A more favorable weather pattern for maturing summer crops and harvesting at this time. Light to moderate showers may impact Cordoba and Santa Fe early this week but most of the time it will be drier.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Recent rainfall will favor development of second crop corn in Parana and MGDS. Showers early this week may be unfavorable for mature summer crops and harvesting but it should be drier and warmer at the end of this week.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT/SPRING GRAINS/CORN): Colder temperatures that occurred in the region since late last week will slow development of winter grains, germination and development of early planted spring grains.

Recent rain in South and east Ukraine and South Russia will maintain favorable soil moisture for winter grains and any early planted spring grains. Dryness is still a concern for a portion of central Ukraine but the area of concern is shrinking. A warming trend with less rainfall this week for most areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry from northern Missouri northward during the weekend period.

Rain occurred in southern Missouri mostly early in the period. Temperatures averaged near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

East: Rain, 0.25-1.25 inch, early in the weekend period mostly occurring south of a line extending from Saint Louis to Cincinnati. Mostly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below normal Saturday and early Sunday, somewhat warmer later Sunday.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today. Light to moderate showers with locally heavier during Tuesday into Wednesday will be heaviest in northern and southeast locations.

Temperatures average above normal today, cooler west and continued warm east tomorrow, cooler all areas Wednesday.

Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier Thursday and Friday. Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms during the weekend period...heaviest occurring through southern and eastern areas. Temperatures average below to well below normal.

East: Mostly dry today and Tuesday. Scattered showers and thundershowers west, continued fair east, Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal tomorrow and Wednesday.

Light to locally moderate showers favoring eastern areas during Thursday.

Drier early Friday, chance for showers later Friday or Friday night...mainly in southern areas. Moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers favoring western and northeast areas during the weekend period. Temperatures average below normal west and above normal east Thursday, near to below normal west and above normal east Friday, near to above normal northwest and above normal south and east during the weekend.

6 to 10 day outlook...Temperatures are expected to below to near normal west, near to above normal east. Rainfall should average near to mostly above normal.

North Plains (Spring Wheat and Corn)

Summary: Light mixed precipitation through northern and western areas during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged near to above normal west, below normal central and east.

Forecast: Light precipitation favoring eastern and southern areas today or during Tuesday. Mainly dry Wednesday. Temperatures average below to well below normal during this period.

Dry or with only a little light to locally moderate precipitation in southern areas Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average below normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to mostly below normal. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, Corn, Soybean, Sorghum)

Summary: Showers and thundershowers, 0.50-1.50 inches and locally heavier, in southeast Kansas, northeast and central Oklahoma mainly very early in the weekend period. Showers, 0.10-0.50 inch and locally heavier, through south-central and west Kansas and eastern Colorado during this time. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below normal Saturday and Sunday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Scattered light to locally moderate showers with isolated heavier tomorrow and during Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal today, cooler northwest and continued warmer elsewhere in the region tomorrow, cooler all locations Wednesday.

Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier during Thursday.

Episodes of showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall can be expected. Temperatures average below normal Thursday, warmer east and south and continued cooler west during Friday, cooler north and central areas and warmer south Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal north and west, near to above normal southeast. Rainfall should average near to above normal.

Brazil (Soybeans/Corn)

Mato Grosso Do Sul, Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul

Summary: Light to moderate showers occurred in RGDS very early in the weekend period. Very light showers elsewhere in the region at that time. Mainly dry during the balance of the weekend period. Temperatures averaged near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers and thundershowers will mainly occur in RGDS today and Tuesday before moving through Parana and MGDS during Wednesday.

Temperatures turn cooler in the southern areas early in this period and in the north later.

Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average below normal early in this period, above normal later in the period.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, Sunflower

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, La Pampa

Summary: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers developed in La Pampa, southwest Buenos Aires and extreme southern Cordoba later in the weekend period. A few light showers moved through the balance of western and southern Buenos Aires during this time. Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal in the south and below normal in the north Saturday, below normal in the south and above normal north Sunday.

Forecast: A few light showers favoring eastern areas today. Scattered light to locally moderate showers favoring central and northern areas tomorrow. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures turn cooler or much cooler during this period.

Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures turn warmer again during this period, possibly much warmer.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.